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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

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Well Paul Hudson on Look North said a change is afoot says"goobye to the high pressure thats dominated our weather westerlys are now the main weather type he even said normal december weather so the jet streams moving south now. winters only 11 days old so im not downbeat afterall the models are only as good as the data fed in to them :)

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A good deal of charts there that support your view. However the probability of ANY chart/prediction at 384 hours, single model, mean or whatever being correct is very small, less than 10% probably but there is always the case where it will be right. If it is right on this single test how about you do this every day down to say T+144 and see how many variations you get?

 

 

Hi

 

The GFS mean verification at T240 might surprise you: post-14819-0-05975100-1386789748_thumb.p

 

59%, nearly 50% better than the op at D10. That is why I used the mean. As for T384 I suspect the 500 pattern verification would be substantially better than 10%.

 

But yes I was commenting on this run and things may change (I was hoping that the Euro high would stall the zonal onslaught). However with the EC32 and the GEFS now supporting a strong zonal signal confidence in a lack of cold has risen.

 

Don't shoot the messenger, I for one hate the upcoming pattern.

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thanks for the reply but whatever the verifications statistics at 240h, barely one in two right(?) one can hardly move that on to 384h.

At 72h the verification of UK Met is something around 80-85% but as we all know this falls substantially when in the 6-15 day time frame.

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Please don't feed the trolls!!!

Over the 10(!) years Netweather has been online people have more often than not used lines about writing off winter at ridiculously early points as some sort of attention or assurance seeking mechanism - please don't give it to them and then they may stop.

 

Everyone knows this type of thing is a silly comment to make at this point, so cluttering up the thread with countless replies to it is equally as pointless.

 

People may of missed this from earlier Paul.Posted Image

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End of GFS shows jet going south of the uk and the PV coming further south...that's the only positive I can find!

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The CDAS global temperature anomaly plots for 50 and 30mb

continue to look very promising and although it may be to

late for Christmas it definitely looks as if something is

brewing perhaps as we head deeper into winter.

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CFS also trended very well for NW'ly to take effect during December with blocking in the Atlantic.

 

Things can change fast huh?

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Please don't feed the trolls!!!

Over the 10(!) years Netweather has been online people have more often than not used lines about writing off winter at ridiculously early points as some sort of attention or assurance seeking mechanism - please don't give it to them and then they may stop.

 

Everyone knows this type of thing is a silly comment to make at this point, so cluttering up the thread with countless replies to it is equally as pointless.

 

^^

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all i  say  f1 is teasing  people  this  is xmas eve cold  with  snow  over  the country   xmas  day is  rain!!!

post-4629-0-18059100-1386792571_thumb.pn

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As has already been asked: do you have any links to these 'US guys',

I expect the Met office would like the links as well. These Guys must be hot property in the weather community if they can forecast three months ahead.

It does look very 1988 in all fairness, but any zonal run will look just like 1988. That winter was something like a once in 200 year event which puts things into perspective.

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Whisper it................ the ECM postage stamps are back!!

I know shhhh, but greatly reduced number of time steps and appears very slow to update.Also a good read here from some extremely interesting research. I certainly hope it's wrong but stats are pretty amazing.Obviously there are likely to be many flaws in the approach, but the statistics are pretty interesting. Not sure on the scientific method .http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41379-october-pattern-index-predicting-winter-ao-from-october-with-90-accuracy/

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You can see where we stand on the D10 ECM mean chart: post-14819-0-26107500-1386795190_thumb.p

 

The strong Euro/Russia high continues to get fuelled and it attempts to ridge towards the Pacific North, however low heights prevent this but it enables a cross flow to the NW seaboard instead, marrying with the Pacific heights. To me that means further cold to the US as the vortex is funneled south along the west conus. That looks likely to leave the PV parked partly  in Greenland till the pattern is disrupted.

 

The D11 Control run is probably the extreme outcome of this synoptic: 

 

post-14819-0-76689300-1386795744_thumb.p  Source

 

The Dutch ENS sum it up: post-14819-0-04396700-1386796087_thumb.p

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the funny bit is, its likely that the same people who said it, (ONLY A VERY FEW DAYS AGO) are now saying the same thing, except we are now stuck with this-

 

Posted Image

 

'zonal' until january and beyond.

 

hmm.... that means they were very wrong first time.....

 

point is, december may not bring snow, but anyone who is 'certain' of what this winter has in store is talking absolute rubbish....

I was one of those and it was more wishful thinking. It was very likely that the alternative of a sinking high, with possible a prolonged zonal washout that tainted my judgement. Whatever, it's the same Synoptics, a pumped up Euro high with a zonal flow running over the top and we are the last stop and now in its cross hairs. The high remains omnipresent and may be the next phase once the PV has lost some energy. Still waiting for some positive strat news, the current warming appears to be bottom up and not likely to split the vortex; as this may be needed to reset the NH long wave pattern.

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Good evening Gang .Yes im liking the look of things with some action weather on the horizon going by current Models tonight .it wouldnt take much to get a few of these lows a bit further south .every model run now is showing v deep lows being generated in the north Atlantic so certainly not boring ,with the possibility of some Newsworthy weather affecting some next week .indeed if the charts just firm up a bit on our side [coldies ]we could possibly see some wintryness coming into the mix .As for the very long range outlook we can only wait and be patient as no current forecasting Model can work out what our very very complex upper atmosphere and other complex atmospheric ingredients are going to do in several weeks time .it was only a month ago that certain forecasters in the states declared NO wintry weather here untill atleast the new year ,We have moved on over the years especially on upper air patterns warming etc but looking ahead a month or more in my opinion is one hell of a gamble .Posted Image

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=300&code=0&mode=2

all i say f1 is teasing people this is xmas eve cold with snow over the country xmas day is rain!!!

It was a good find but unfortunately if you look at the factors required for snow...that would be mainly rain. In the SE the 850hpa temps are above 0c! Maybe A bit of sleet for hills but nothing widespread from that setup Edited by Tim Bland

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just learning .....but the Jetstream seems to be heading much further South on the GFS12z by Boxing Day .....interesting development perhaps ?

 

 

post-7836-0-42051000-1386797937_thumb.pn

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Evening-

 

Ironically as I type the temp has dipped to 0c here with copious amounts of ice & Frost on the cars & ground- which has been rare thus far this season-

 

Its been a bleak day model watching- the models that showed the energy separating last night as a growing trend have today withdrawn towards the original pattern with minimal separation & as a result low pressure moves through NE into Scandi as opposed to getting cut off south of the UK.... The follow on from this is a flatter pattern again.

ECM still toys with the idea- at 144 but the net really doesn't have enough force to push the jet far enough North.

 

We are beginning to run out of days when any thought of a white Christmas is reduced to zero, theres still an outside chance as its 14 days away ( 336 hours) & so we still have time for things to move back to favour Scandi ridging, & indeed the ECM 240 is desperate to get heights into the pole.

 

As it stands now though, its sit tight & wait.

 

Its fingers crossed for coldies......

 

S

 

Yep the U S of A is going steal the limelight this Christmas by the look's. Wet and windy may be our festive outlook. Good to see the jet going south in later runs?

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