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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

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Well Frosty's dreams have come true. 18 of the GEFS at T384 have the UK in a zonal flow of one sort or another: 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=384

 

The pressure chart for the ens sums up that there are many zonal permutations waiting for us:

 

Posted Imagegraphe4_1000_306_141___Londres (1).gif

 

Lots of scatter, so you may think something cold would be lurking there:

 

Posted Imagegraphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.gif

 

No. Lots of rain though. Totally miserable outlook.

Yeah, interesting signal. Those very closely replicate the equivalent ENS plumes (e.g. for Reading) from last EC32. That gets updated Friday, of course.

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Are you genuinely being serious; there can't be any cold for December because the GFS at T384 days so?

Yep

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From looking at research into the CFSv2 and the ECM system 4 seasonal models they both did okay in terms of the ENSO, PNA just about passable, the NAO was a fail with both close to just 0.2 correlation coefficient, temperature wise across Europe just a 0.4.

 

If you go back further to the older CFS seasonal that was laughable and I'm surprised they even published the stats, better to have lost them down the back of the sofa!

 

Overall the ECM does better seasonally than the CFSv2. I've tried to link to the PDF but it doesn't work, if you google search this title:

 

Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

 

The best page in terms of stats is 17. 

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I tell you what though the ukmo t144 is wrong very wrong.

the ecm has a low pressure system diving se impact nw flow perhaps northerly depending on how se it gets lots of options on the table if the low pressure makes it into Europe but the vortex showing signs of a wobble but I don't trust any model other than the ukmo up until t120 because the t144 is of coarse trash bin chart.

 

sorry people of coarse ukmo t144 is wrong how on earth did that happen.

I would not trust the gfs beyond t96 that's the realiable for this model

Edited by emotional rollercoaster

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Are you genuinely being serious; there can't be any cold for December because the GFS at T384 days so?

 

 

Yep

 

The day I start using the GFS at T384 as a guide to the forthcoming weather is the day I might as well start sticking seaweed on the windowsill and putting my finger in the air; it would be just as reliable........

 

Yes, the next seven to ten days are going to be dominated by Atlantic LPs but after that is anyone's guess really.

Edited by Chalk Serpent

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As most of us know, or should know on here already, that there is about as little chance of the GFS at T384 verifying as there is of having 6ft of snow tomorrow. Thus it is a bit premature to write off things based on a GFS chart in the far reaches of FI!

HiIt was a mean chart and if it is close to what we see at that time then I am confident that there will be no cold from now till the end of December and onwards. Of course there may be a trigger upstream that bails us out, however the current Synoptics are usually medium term patterns.

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so far on the ecm and gfs I would be inclined to put a bet on snow falling on Christmas day in Scotland.

but I still agree not wintry for the rest of the uk for the rest of December.

Edited by emotional rollercoaster

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HiIt was a mean chart and if it is close to what we see at that time then I am confident that there will be no cold from now till the end of December and onwards. Of course there may be a trigger upstream that bails us out, however the current Synoptics are usually medium term patterns.

 

A GFS mean chart at T384 is useless...

 

I doubt the Met Office will analyze it to much.

Edited by Barry95

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t216 sees milder air pushing into the SW once more as it remains unsettled

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Its a case of close but no cigar at the moment for getting cold air into the UK for a lengthy time

Edited by Summer Sun

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t216 sees milder air pushing into the SW once more as it remains unsettled

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Its a case of close but no cigar at the moment for getting cold air into the UK for a lengthy time

 

 

You notice that, but fail to notice the undead duck in the left hand image?

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ECM a little more amplified I guess, but it's a zonal run again. Vortex plotted over Greenland spawning lows. Traditional winter fare for the uk

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A good deal of charts there that support your view. However the probability of ANY chart/prediction at 384 hours, single model, mean or whatever being correct is very small, less than 10% probably but there is always the case where it will be right. If it is right on this single test how about you do this every day down to say T+144 and see how many variations you get?

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t240 sees cooler air moving across the UK once more as it remains unsettled with the potential for Gales in the north

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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yep im afraid December is looking like a right of and with heights remaining to our south and southeast into Europe its looking likely jan could also be a frustrating month.

models really are firming up on typical late 90s early 2000s typical winter doom and gloom.

 

well for most of the uk but certainly not a right of for Scotland perhaps northern England perhaps.

Edited by emotional rollercoaster

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ECM continues the zonal outlook, some cold zonality certainly possible towards xmas too but lengthy cold still looking v unlikely but plenty of time to change, either way. Remember the other day, a lot of people were saying, ahh mild charts never downgrade, they never downgrade like cold charts, take a look how the models have sank that euro high in the last few days with the jet now further south with a more unsettled zonal outlook. I know it is still a mild outcome but it shows that the models don't necessarily have a better verification for mild outcomes.

Edited by bradythemole

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Are you genuinely being serious; there can't be any cold for December because the GFS at T384 days so?

It's not that, remember every frame before T384 also suggests this. Looking at the near time nh pattern T384 may as well be T160 and T48. We are here for a while... Enjoy it, I know I will!

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To be honest whilst the northern hemisphere doesn't look too bad, we are in about the worst possible location at the moment to get any proper Arctic sourced air. The Pacific ridge is showing it's hand again and if we could get this to link to heights over SIberia we might be able to shift the Polar vortex east as the longwave pattern moves around. This would tie in somewhat with BFTP's thoughts as the polar vortex would for a brief while move very close to the north of the UK and hence a big chance for some stormy weather followed by a strong building of heights northwards as this departs. But this will take time and a lot of luck to make it happen.

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It's not that, remember every frame before T384 also suggests this. Looking at the near time nh pattern T384 may as well be T160 and T48. We are here for a while... Enjoy it, I know I will!

 

Every frame from T120 onwards are likely to change on the next run.

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Looking at the models and ensembles tonight I'm starting to understand how Alistair Cook felt on Sunday night when asked if there were any positives from the 2nd Test.

 

The September chart posted earlier is more promising for cold Posted Image . My personal horror rating is about 9.5 at the moment. Its progress though because it was at 10 last weekend.

 

No doubt things will change at some point but we are looking some weeks ahead I suspect. In truth its unusual to get significant cold weather before Christmas so its not really too surprising if taking a balanced view. The zonality will no doubt blow itself out eventually, but unless the background signals change a further UK / Euro high would likely be the end result.

 

 

Jason

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GEFS are Extremely mild and zonal high chance of pattern being locked in till March 

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2013121112/graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.gif

I don't think that that's a fair reflection reality, zz...Nobody knows what the weather will be like come March. Please keep to discussing what the models are actually showing, not what we would either like them to show, or make wild extrapolations into the future?Posted Image

Edited by A Boy Named Sue

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