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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

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The 850Hpa London 00 ensemble suite shows pretty solid clustering even 10-12 days hence, with the range of solutions at that time only spanning 6 or 7c, from 0c to around +7c. Also the mean stays pretty much above the average throughout the period, so IF this is correct and the flow is mainly from between S and W temps should be on the mild side overall.  Will be interesting to see if the 06 sticks with this solid looking set up just prior to Xmas. 

 

Posted Image

Edited by shedhead

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Really? No travel problems? Do the models not show some quite high rain totals? Wouldnt be surprised to see bad flooding in the coming weeks....and i think the wind could be an issue for travel too.

Doesn't look too spectacular to me or out of the ordinary. The Eurotrash HP is pretty close and the jet stream far to the North so much of the potentially stormy stuff would be confined to the far NW of the UK or Scotland. Unsettled but not extreme IMO.

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Doesn't look too spectacular to me or out of the ordinary. The Eurotrash HP is pretty close and the jet stream far to the North so much of the potentially stormy stuff would be confined to the far NW of the UK or Scotland. Unsettled but not extreme IMO.

 

Dunno, looked very windy for all of us on Saturday according to the 00z GFS:

 

post-1052-0-66674700-1386756420_thumb.pnpost-1052-0-46697200-1386756441_thumb.pn

 

06z windy too, though the low further northwest. The high on the near continent will relax its grip across England and Wales as we head into the weekend, so we are all in the same boat for the run up to Xmas, with mild, wet and windy spells interspersed by cooler Pm incursions.

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Posted Image

 

Looks like that storm will be nasty for next week.

 

 

Posted Image

 

That is what I call a deep low. Nice. Posted Image

 

 

Potential cold snap/spell perhaps?Posted Image

Edited by pip22

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Posted Image

 

Looks like that storm will be nasty for next week.

 

 

Posted Image

 

That is what I call a deep low. Nice. Posted Image

 

 

Potential cold snap/spell perhaps?Posted Image

Very deep low I grant you but I doubt it will have much if any impact for the vast majority of us as it's present track seems too far west/north west. Still, a week away so the projected path could change of course. 

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The race to save Xmas looks very unlikely this morning, especially after the ECM drops its more positive 216 and 240hrs outputs, flatter and overall less influence from high pressure in Siberia, the PV remains generally as one uniform blob which again is bad news for cold.

It can often seem like Groundhog Day with this type of pattern as the general pattern remains set run after run, model reliability goes up and coldies might yearn for some changes but they won't come until theres a big change with that PV and the upstream pattern becomes more amplified.

In light of todays events my horror rating is now at 9.75/10, if it reaches 10 then the warp core blows and we have to evacuate the Net Weather Starship, the search for cold I'm afraid will need to start looking at more probably the post Xmas timeframe.

At least it looks like there'll be some weather though Nick, anything has to be better than the current mind numbing stagnation. Plenty of wind likely at times throughout the 06 run, with occasional shots of Pm or RPm air meaning at least a more seasonal feel every now and then, so infinately better than a constant train from Bermuda imo.

 

IF this run verifies tho a good deal of air miles will need to be racked up to find a White Xmas....

 

Posted Image

Edited by Paul

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At least there looks like there will be some weather though Nick, anything has to be better than the current mind numbing stagnation. Plenty of wind likely at times throughout the 06 run, with occasional shots of Pm or RPm air meaning at least a more seasonal feel every now and then, so infinately better than a constant train from Bermuda imo.

It's a shame the models moved away from at least a se feed into the UK with high in more charge, that at least looked quite sunny and with overnight frosts which would at least make it feel a bit more festive. In terms of any colder air it looks poor, any flow will be modified and fleeting, theres just not enough amplification upstream. Generally in this type of pattern low pressure shown to be quite far south in FI will get adjusted north with time unless theres some forcing from the polar region.The ECM had some pressure being forced on the PV from that Siberian ridge over the last few days until todays underwhelming backtrack.General rule here is roundish PV blob to the north no cold as low pressure will always want to travel more ne once it gets close to the UK, it at least needs to elongate running more nw/se with some pressure rises to the ne to change the axis of the jet.

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Small progress made in the outputs. The ECWMF, GFS and UKMO all have sub 0C upper air at day 6, only the GEM goes against them.

 

Only temporary but signs that the pattern may be changing back to a more November esq pattern.

 

Posted Image

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Best to move to Canada for winter weather!

Very mild uppers penetrating deep into Russia at the moment so an easterly would have no teeth - at least to start with

Posted Image

Not that there looks likes the slightest prospect of an easterly that is, hugely zonal mild weather right to the far end of FI and most probably well beyond

 

Posted Image

With Canada so cold it's going to be a very long haul to get even close to anything remotely wintry in the UK and indeed most of western Europe.

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It's a shame the models moved away from at least a se feed into the UK with high in more charge, that at least looked quite sunny and with overnight frosts which would at least make it feel a bit more festive. In terms of any colder air it looks poor, any flow will be modified and fleeting, theres just not enough amplification upstream. Generally in this type of pattern low pressure shown to be quite far south in FI will get adjusted north with time unless theres some forcing from the polar region.The ECM had some pressure being forced on the PV from that Siberian ridge over the last few days until todays underwhelming backtrack.

General rule here is roundish PV blob to the north no cold as low pressure will always want to travel more ne once it gets close to the UK, it at least needs to elongate running more nw/se with some pressure rises to the ne to change the axis of the jet.

Indeed, you'd struggle to pick a worst PV core location for UK cold atm, so without doubt patience is going to be required, perhaps quite a lot of it...Posted Image

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Rinse and repeat this morning with the mobile zonal pattern locked in for some considerable time.

All main models confirm this so very consistent and no indicators at all of any wintry weather apart from the highest mountains & hills of the north & then nothing sustained.

Sometimes very mild, mostly mild or if lucky average temps and becoming more unsettled.

 

Posted Image

 

Should be quite pleasant in any sunshine when it occurs and no travel problems likey at least. Posted Image

 

At least it looks like there'll be some weather though Nick, anything has to be better than the current mind numbing stagnation. Plenty of wind likely at times throughout the 06 run, with occasional shots of Pm or RPm air meaning at least a more seasonal feel every now and then, so infinately better than a constant train from Bermuda imo.

 

IF this run verifies tho a good deal of air miles will need to be racked up to find a White Xmas....

 

Posted Image

 

 

Edit....Currently the same temp in Kinloss as it is at Reina Sofia airport in Tenerife... not often you can say that in Dec!

 

EGQK 111050Z 19013KT 9999 SCT045 BKN150 14/09 Q1018 BLU

 

GCXO 111106Z 16012G23KT 120V230 9000 -RA VCFG FEW000 BKN010TCU 14/14 Q1019 NOSIG

Don't get me wrong here, in one way I'm as disappointed as the next person here who may have been pinning all their hopes on something really cold having developed by now but by the same token I'm really looking forward to the jet moving further south and with it the possibility of a southwest/northeast flow hopefully bringing in intense lows as time progresses. Fingers crossed we don't see downgrades and backtracks on this particular theme in future runs. Posted Image

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I can't really add to what has already been said this morning.

 

The conveyor belt of High pressure systems being transported across the Atlantic, over the Azores and into Central Europe remains in force today.

 

The far NW of Scotland and N.Ireland are likely to experience some very windy days ahead in the coming weeks leading up to the big day itself and looking at the precipitation ensembles there's likely to be a lot more wet weather around then there has been of late for most of us.

 

If we do see a change before the month is out I think it's likely to come from a secondary low pressure system forming on it's journey across the Mid North Atlantic  spawning at short notice and spinning into central europe, (trhis is assuming that there would already be another deeper and more amplified pressure system ahead of it...hence the secondary low being forced further to the south)...and then displacing (at least for a time) the resident Euro High, leaving a window of opportunity for things to change.

 

The big question would then be if it does indeed change and to what, OR it might just reset and we carry on where we left off.

 

That's my take on things as the most likely route out of this droll mild mush as it stands.

Edited by EML Network

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The Gfs 06z looks very unsettled from the end of this week onwards to boxing day and beyond with occasional colder polar maritime incursions, especially across the north of the uk with sleet and snow on hills at times, it would also be very windy or indeed stormy at times and that would offset the milder days but in general, temps look close to average with some colder / milder days in the mix.

post-4783-0-51138700-1386762388_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-35765600-1386762403_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-43569000-1386762416_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-40950700-1386762428_thumb.pn

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I can't really add to what has already been said this morning.

 

The conveyor belt of High pressure systems being transported across the Atlantic, over the Azores and into Central Europe remains in force today.

 

The far NW of Scotland and N.Ireland are likely to experience some very windy days ahead in the coming weeks leading up to the big day itself and looking at the precipitation ensembles there's likely to be a lot more wet weather around then there has been of late for most of us.

 

If we do see a change before the month is out I think it's likely to come from a secondary low pressure system forming on it's journey across the Mid North Atlantic and spinning into central europe, displacing at least for a time the resident Euro High, leaving a window of opportunity for things to change.

 

The big question would then be if it does indeed change and to what, OR it might just reset and we carry on where we left off.

 

That's my take on things as they stand

 

I would anticipate these being only transient ridges and therefore unlikely to lead us back in the near future to what we presently have..stagnation!

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3 recent posts about JB tweets have been removed.

Please post that sort of stuff to one of Winter threads please guys.

 

Model output talk only in here please.

 

Ta.

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I would anticipate these being only transient ridges and therefore unlikely to lead us back in the near future to what we presently have..stagnation!

Agreed, the upstream pattern looks very unsettled, thankfully not much more of this mild, stagnant weather to endure.Posted Image

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The Gem 00z becomes very disturbed, stormy at times with bouts of heavy rain and showers and the PFJ digs quite far south so it wouldn't be mild, more like a mix of north atlantic / polar maritime airmasses with a strong airflow from anywhere between se'ly to westerly, cold enough for snow on northern hills at times with just a few milder blips (warm front sectors).

post-4783-0-05236400-1386767587_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-77052000-1386767599_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-04172500-1386767614_thumb.gi

Edited by Frosty.

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Agreed, the upstream pattern looks very unsettled, thankfully not much more of this mild, stagnant weather to endure.Posted Image

At this point in time I'd take stagnation with a cold surface inversion, at least some frost possible that way and sunshine. The  zonal reset is basically just stagnating in a sea of mild sw'erlies and wind and rain. Perhaps a chance for some fleeting returning PM air but unless you're on top of Ben Nevis then its looking a desperate affair for any snow.

 

Unless something happens to the ne to help change the axis of the jet then its a no go for cold given where the PV is expected to set up. If someone could also order a return of the Aleutian ridge that might also be welcome.

 

The current synoptics are not that unusual, we've seen this many times before especially in that run of milder winters. The issue isn't really having the PV blob limpeted to the north but how long it wants to stay there.

 

Given the timeframes and generally longer range reliability in this type of set up then even with some upstream changes we're looking at probably after Xmas for any more interesting developments.

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The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows the progressively more unsettled and windier weather arriving during the weekend and the unsettled spell strengthens it's grip on the uk weather throughout next week and beyond with vigorous depression (s) in the iceland / greenland region becoming the dominant feature, temperatures close to average but feeling cold in the strong to gale force winds from a southwesterly quarter but occasionally veering more westerly or even a touch north of west which would enable polar maritime incursions with wintry ppn to hills, especially later in the outlook period.

post-4783-0-43109800-1386768608_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-12696300-1386768625_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-65326400-1386768637_thumb.gi

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post-4783-0-55570400-1386768664_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-03875200-1386768679_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-26353600-1386768692_thumb.gi

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At this point in time I'd take stagnation with a cold surface inversion, at least some frost possible that way and sunshine. The  zonal reset is basically just stagnating in a sea of mild sw'erlies and wind and rain. Perhaps a chance for some fleeting returning PM air but unless you're on top of Ben Nevis then its looking a desperate affair for any snow.

 

Unless something happens to the ne to help change the axis of the jet then its a no go for cold given where the PV is expected to set up. If someone could also order a return of the Aleutian ridge that might also be welcome.

 

The current synoptics are not that unusual, we've seen this many times before especially in that run of milder winters. The issue isn't really having the PV blob limpeted to the north but how long it wants to stay there.

 

Given the timeframes and generally longer range reliability in this type of set up then even with some upstream changes we're looking at probably after Xmas for any more interesting developments.

Don't you start getting down Nick...we look to you for positive inspiration....not exasperation and perspiration...Posted Image

 

You are of course correct though, the only real issues now are can we shift that blob of PV to a more favourable postion and if so when? I know IB came in for a lot of stick when he suggested the pattern that now looks guaranteed to develop can be a real pig to break, indeed some entire noughties Winters were virtually written off by them, but hopefully this time the new year will herald a sea change in the hemispheric pattern. 

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I've seen enough....this thread is proceeding at barely two pages per model run....that can only mean nothing worthwhile is happening in the forseeable future for cold lovers like me. It's time to write off December I think

- off december -

Or maybe i should have said type it! Posted Image

Seriously it's not inconceivable to get a cold winter in amidst a series of mild winters....and if this winter did turn out to be mild, then i would still regard it as one coming in a series of cold winters. But I'm thinking that in the latter stages of the runs recently that bits and pieces are showing up to indicate all may not be well in the Big PV household, with a couple of evictions coming soon...

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