Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

yes there has.  winters of 1948/9 and 1962/3 not forgetting the 'little ice age' between the 1600's and 1800's.  so it is possible to having locking patterns even in the UK.

 

I'll take another little ice age please.

Thanks for the info, maybe after the 10,000th time of saying we will be locked in for months on end they maybe right and will be able to say told you so hehe

Edited December 10, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[tcc]

I wonder whether the nudging of the Arctic High South Eastwards on the UKMO @ 144 is something to hang onto (from a coldie perspective)

 

Be interesting to see if it's still there shortly

[weatherguy]

As long as the PV is as strong as this over Greenland/Canada, our chances of any sustained cold are poor.  Similar NH profile is shown at this timeframe for both the GFS and ECM.  No sight of any sustained cold for the next couple of weeks at least, I can say with a degree of certainty.  Only crumb of comfort is height rises to the NE towards the end of this period, but even then we're pushing our luck with that strong PV.

 

Hoping for change after this period though  

 

[shedhead]

The GFS is a little less progressive at T+120hrs, meaning most of us should get away with a dry Saturday now, albeit mild and increasingly windy across the north and west.

 

Edited December 10, 2013 by Paul
Stop point scoring, it's tedious...

[steelermark]

Actually this isn't correct - the metar report from Glasgow airport was showing 14c at both 11:00 and 12:00 today.

 

But anyway, can we use this thread to discuss the models please. 

 

Paul, I agree with this but I did clearly state it was the met office observation from Glasgow/Bishopton where I had taken my information from. The point is it wasn't going to go up to 15c at all, it had already started to come down. At 12.50 it was 14c at 13.20 it was 12c. At 13.08 Shed said 15c was highly likely when in fact the temperature was already falling.

 

As I mentioned on my post why the need for exaggeration?

 

Too many people that clearly just want to wind other members up or bang the same drum time and time again. Next time I shall use the report button as requested.

[Purga]

Any hope of the mighty vortex being stalled a tad are swept away with the UKMO 12z

Mild and zonal as hell.

 

NH view just underlines the fact

GFS 12z coma inducingly mild

Not bad for the Scottish hills etc

Hopeless for the rest of us and the poor European Ski resorts.

[NorthernRab]

Any hope of the mighty vortex being stalled a tad are swept away with the UKMO 12z

 

Mild and zonal as hell.

 

 

Could you please stop calling the polar vortex the mighty vortex? We'll have a whole new generation of young forecasters thinking it's actually called that! 

 

That also doesn't look mild, it looks quite chilly really and could delivery various forms of wintry precipitation.

[Richie V]

Ooh, I off to change my trousers! Lower energy bills thats for sure.

Any hope of the mighty vortex being stalled a tad are swept away with the UKMO 12z

Mild and zonal as hell.

 

NH view just underlines the fact

GFS 12z coma inducingly mild

Not bad for the Scottish hills etc

Hopeless for the rest of us and the poor European Ski resorts.

[Barry12]

Any hope of the mighty vortex being stalled a tad are swept away with the UKMO 12z

Mild and zonal as hell.

 

Yep, mild North-westerlies...

[Summer Sun]

Looking at UKMO high pressure is never far away from the south, a lot of Europe is under high pressure by Monday

 

[Ian Brown]

Could you please stop calling the polar vortex the mighty vortex? We'll have a whole new generation of young forecasters thinking it's actually called that! 

 

That also doesn't look mild, it looks quite chilly really and could delivery various forms of wintry precipitation.

 

This PV is pretty mighty and going to take a hell of a lot of shifting.

[Paul]

Paul, I agree with this but I did clearly state it was the met office observation from Glasgow/Bishopton where I had taken my information from. The point is it wasn't going to go up to 15c at all, it had already started to come down. At 12.50 it was 14c at 13.20 it was 12c. At 13.08 Shed said 15c was highly likely when in fact the temperature was already falling.

 

As I mentioned on my post why the need for exaggeration?

 

Too many people that clearly just want to wind other members up or bang the same drum time and time again. Next time I shall use the report button as requested.

 

If you think people are deliberately on the wind-up then report the posts...

 

Fwiw though, it's fairly reasonable to assume that if the temperature is 14c at 11am there's a decent chance of it increasing by early afternoon, the fact it didn't is neither here nor there. I'd also say that this defensive attitude of some in this thread, labelling people as wind up merchants, and of things like exaggeration when they simply have a different opinion is getting really tiresome.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Yep, mild North-westerlies...

What is NW'erly about that chart? Or am I missing something here?

[Richie V]

Hi paul, my passion is genuine for the upcoming weather type, it can be hard posting when im in my meteorlogical heaven and there is a room full of coldies. It's like when Leeds utd fans meet Milwall fans

[igloo]

Any hope of the mighty vortex being stalled a tad are swept away with the UKMO 12z

Mild and zonal as hell.

 

NH view just underlines the fact

GFS 12z coma inducingly mild

Not bad for the Scottish hills etc

Hopeless for the rest of us and the poor European Ski resorts.

nothing unusual with those charts at this time of year infact it could be a lot worse with lows spinning at 935mb

[johnholmes]

yes there has.  winters of 1948/9 and 1962/3 not forgetting the 'little ice age' between the 1600's and 1800's.  so it is possible to having locking patterns even in the UK.

wrong winter there, it was 1947 not 1948-49

[gottolovethisweather]

Any hope of the mighty vortex being stalled a tad are swept away with the UKMO 12z

Mild and zonal as hell.

 

NH view just underlines the fact

GFS 12z coma inducingly mild

Not bad for the Scottish hills etc

Hopeless for the rest of us and the poor European Ski resorts.

 

Near average Temps bar perhaps the far South IMHO, in fact well above average for folk in the South of France and in Spain to name two areas but not many netweather members live there. However as you correctly suggest, a slightly more zonal of the raging type scenario now showing up increasingly within the outputs and soon into the reliable to boot.

Edited December 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

This PV is pretty mighty and going to take a hell of a lot of shifting.

 

And as it has been stated by my understanding of the NWP outputs, we can get still achieve some POLAR influence if things fall right in spite of the current Northern Hemispheric pattern. To correlate with your viewpoint, I do agree it would be very unlikely for anything by way of prolonged cold to develop this side of Christmas.

Edited December 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[SMU]

This PV is pretty mighty and going to take a hell of a lot of shifting.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013121012/UN144-21.GIF?10-17

 

looking at the NH plot the change is underway on the UKMO 12z.

 

Cold from day 6 on the euro tonight with high pressure ridging North/ NE this time as opposed to east last week.

Edited December 10, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Purga]

Could you please stop calling the polar vortex the mighty vortex? We'll have a whole new generation of young forecasters thinking it's actually called that! 

 

That also doesn't look mild, it looks quite chilly really and could delivery various forms of wintry precipitation.

Well if that ain't a mighty one I don't know what is!

And don't worry, if you read my post I did say the synoptics would be OK (meaning wintry) for the Scottish hills - have a wee dram and chill...

[bradymk]

Models have become more interesting again after the very boring weekend of model watching. Hopefully ECM last night has found a new trend, ENS were most interesting they have been for a while last night too, looking forward to what todays 12z run delivers. Hopefully the v cold air in the US can help dive the jet further south

Edited December 10, 2013 by bradythemole

[NorthernRab]

Well if that ain't a mighty one I don't know what is!

And don't worry, if you read my post I did say the synoptics would be OK (meaning wintry) for the Scottish hills - have a wee dram and chill...

 

There'll be drams when the snow's in Purga!  (there used to be a whisky emoticon, not sure where it went!) 

 

In saying that, I've seen far more aggressive looking polar vortexes in my relatively short time on this planet. Weak heights at the pole and relatively strong heights riding into Scandinavia / the Baltics isn't too shabby for the time of year 

[TSNWK]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013121012/UN144-21.GIF?10-17 looking at the NH plot the change is underway on the UKMO 12z. Cold from day 6 on the euro tonight with high pressure ridging North/ NE this time as opposed to east last week.

Hello Steve, from a fellow north west Kenter.. Interesting remarks above, can't see it myself would you mind eleborating a little on the above on how you might think it could pan out from day 6Cheers

[IDO]

The models are struggling to handle the Vortex and Euro/Atlantic slug interaction. Difficult to know where the jet will run SW to NE. The south may escape with much less unsettled weather. The pressure charts sum up that variance:

 

 

Dont see any change as to the long wave pattern; just how far south the zonal muck drifts. For instance, the Control run from GFS has the south under higher pressure influence from around T240: 

 

To the end of FI:    Which is fine by me.

 

Looking at the T384 stamps for the GEFS, half have the south under more settled and the other half more disturbed (similar at T240). The spread sums it up: 

 

 

Only 2 had a HLB (Scandi). So whilst looking for better ens its really battleground UK as to what level of rainfall we get and what locale. No real cold anywhere.

 

 

[Ian Brown]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013121012/UN144-21.GIF?10-17

 

looking at the NH plot the change is underway on the UKMO 12z.

 

Cold from day 6 on the euro tonight with high pressure ridging North/ NE this time as opposed to east last week.

 

That would be very transient as the next LP flattened any ridging.