Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[shedhead]

A fair summary there shed, but I'm still waiting for the mild air down here in my patch, yes it will arrive shortly I suppose, hopefully along with a bit less cloud, but that last aspect is far from guaranteed. Changeable sums things up in the medium-term.

Hi gtltw - That's why I was at pains to say... I think the best way to simplify things is - increasingly unsettled, becoming mild/very mild for a time, then turning a bit colder later...but nothing in the way of proper cold as far ahead as we can reliably look.

 

I understand we are not quite there yet everywhere, but it is already the case for much of the UK to be fair.

 

[MPG]

A fair summary there shed, but I'm still waiting for the mild air down here in my patch, yes it will arrive shortly I suppose, hopefully along with a bit less cloud, but that last aspect is far from guaranteed. Changeable sums things up in the medium-term.

As you say, Im still waiting for the mild air. Having been through the maximum temps for the whole of GFS 0z run, the warmest temperature is 12 in the far south west, with 7-8's probably being the average across the UK. So cant see any very mild air in the output.

 

Warmest maxium day I could find:

[Heisenberg]

I think the best way to simplify things is - increasingly unsettled, becoming mild/very mild for a time, then turning a bit colder later...but nothing in the way of proper cold as far ahead as we can reliably look.

 

Which is about a week then eh?

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z op run shows the current settled spell being swept away by the end of the week onwards with the atlantic becoming very active, it has a very disturbed look about it for most of the run with depressions lining up to deposit spells of persistent rain and strong to gale force winds generally from a southwesterly quarter but occasionally veering north of west with some showery polar maritime incursions, especially for the north with snow for northern hills at times but with mild interludes separating the colder air of polar origins.

Edited December 10, 2013 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

 

ECM London ensembles.

 

 

In all honesty it would be hard to find a worse set for cold prospects.

It's a case of grin and bear it for coldies I'm afraid.

 

Those london ens promised a couple of weeks of below av temps only a week ago. the suite certainly under estimated the atlantic push and by the same token, it could be doing the same re any new height rise to our ne. an invigorated mobile w-e flow seems the current favourite but i dont think the uk will be far away from high heights for too long come verification.

[MPG]

Hi gtltw - That's why I was at pains to say... I think the best way to simplify things is - increasingly unsettled, becoming mild/very mild for a time, then turning a bit colder later...but nothing in the way of proper cold as far ahead as we can reliably look.

 

I understand we are not quite there yet everywhere, but it is already the case for much of the UK to be fair. 

show us a chart with very mild air

[Mapantz]

As you say, Im still waiting for the mild air. Having been through the maximum temps for the whole of GFS 0z run, the warmest temperature is 12 in the far south west, with 7-8's probably being the average across the UK. So cant see any very mild air in the output.

 

Warmest maxium day I could find:

You can probably add on 1 or 2C on to those projections, especially as 13 and 14C has been hit in quite a few areas in the last few days.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I think the best way to simplify things is - increasingly unsettled, becoming mild/very mild for a time, then turning a bit colder later...but nothing in the way of proper cold as far ahead as we can reliably look.

 

I'm still waiting for this much talked about mild weather to reach me in this neck of the woods. It must be mild everywhere but here.

[johnholmes]

I get the the models throw out different weather senarios and people are bias ie cold mild but i wish people would just post facts instead of me reading pages of... "Winters over" or "Merry Christmas" and post a flipping good chart which is far out in FI. I go from ney to yeah in about 12 posts very hard work when your trying to learn and your a coldie

 

I personally totally agree with you but many on here like the search for cold, no matter how far out, which model it is, or how unlikely it is. I am sure by now you know which posters will post the dull, boring but objective view of the various outputs at the various time scales?

[Frosty.]

I personally totally agree with you but many on here like the search for cold, no matter how far out, which model it is, or how unlikely it is. I am sure by now you know which posters will post the dull, boring but objective view of the various outputs at the various time scales?

won't have long to wait, cold incursions arrive by the weekend according to the gfs

[MPG]

I'm still waiting for this much talked about mild weather to reach me in this neck of the woods. It must be mild everywhere but here.

Yep, and the ensembles are showing a cooling trend as we head into December.

 

[shedhead]

You can probably add on 1 or 2C on to those projections, especially as 13 and 14C has been hit in quite a few areas in the last few days.

Indeed Mapantz... just as an example for MPG, here are GFS's pedicted maxima for today based on the 06...so just a few hours hence.

 

 

Compare these with the current actuals...... Already 11-13c across much of Scotland/N Ireland and likely to max out 12-14c, perhaps locally 15c. Note 14c just south of Glasgow at noon!!.

 

Given the fact the mid Dec ave max for Scotland ranges from 6.0 to 8.0c, temps some 6-8c above average can rightly be described as very mild imo.

 

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&DATE=1386676800&CONT=euro&LAND=UK&KEY=UK&SORT=2&UD=0&INT=24&TYP=temperatur&ART=kartealle&RUBRIK=akt&R=310&CEL=C&SI=mph

 

Those of us who quoted these potential localised maxima last week got rather slated, not least because rather too much store is set in what GFS predict. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 10, 2013 by shedhead

[warrenb]

Indeed Mapantz... just as an example for MPG here are GFS's pedicted maxima for today based on the 06...so just a few hours hence.

 

 

Compare these with the current actuals...... Already 11-13c across much of Scotland/N Ireland and likely to max out 12-14c, perhaps locally 15c. Note 14c just south of Glasgow at noon!!.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&DATE=1386676800&CONT=euro&LAND=UK&KEY=UK&SORT=2&UD=0&INT=24&TYP=temperatur&ART=kartealle&RUBRIK=akt&R=310&CEL=C&SI=mph

 

Those of us who quoted these potential localised maxima last week got rather slated, not least because rather too much store is set in what GFS predict. 

 

Yes but in a similar vain, it is 3.4C here at the moment, so swings and roundabouts.

[Frank Trough]

show us a chart with very mild air

well, you can start with today and go from there.

 

 

it's currently 14c at Glasgow airport. That's VERY mild, regardless of what it's doing elsewhere.

[MPG]

well, you can start with today and go from there.

 

 

it's currently 14c at Glasgow airport. That's VERY mild, regardless of what it's doing elsewhere.

I can only go on what the charts show. That chart shows glasgow at 8 degrees at 15.00. There are national variations, places in the south are just above freezing.

[shedhead]

Yes but in a similar vain, it is 3.4C here at the moment, so swings and roundabouts.

Of course warren, but 3.4c is as much the exception as 14.0c is.  Bottom line is most of the UK is on the mild side, which is all that was actually suggested.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Indeed Mapantz... just as an example for MPG, here are GFS's pedicted maxima for today based on the 06...so just a few hours hence.

 

 

Compare these with the current actuals...... Already 11-13c across much of Scotland/N Ireland and likely to max out 12-14c, perhaps locally 15c. Note 14c just south of Glasgow at noon!!.

 

Given the fact the mid Dec ave max for Scotland ranges from 6.0 to 8.0c, temps some 6-8c above average can rightly be described as very mild imo.

 

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&DATE=1386676800&CONT=euro&LAND=UK&KEY=UK&SORT=2&UD=0&INT=24&TYP=temperatur&ART=kartealle&RUBRIK=akt&R=310&CEL=C&SI=mph

 

Those of us who quoted these potential localised maxima last week got rather slated, not least because rather too much store is set in what GFS predict. 

 

 

 

 

I am truely very pleased for Glasgow, but thank god it seems pretty localised then and the majority of us dont have to put up with these very mild temps

[shedhead]

I can only go on what the charts show. That chart shows glasgow at 8 degrees at 15.00. There are national variations, places in the south are just above freezing.

Here is the 11.50 ob from Glasgow MPG, showing temp of 14c, with a max of 15c looking very possible... prob best not to rely to heavily on GFS predicted temps, whether they be max or min.

 

. EGPF 101150Z 21014KT 9999 FEW021 BKN038 14/08 Q1021

 

 

 

 

[Frank Trough]

I can only go on what the charts show. That chart shows glasgow at 8 degrees at 15.00. There are national variations, places in the south are just above freezing.

 

Then you're going to be surpised how mild this week turns out to be in places.

 

At least it looks like this won't be the case for too long and we might actually experience some "weather".

Edited December 10, 2013 by New Forest Gump

[MPG]

Here is the 11.50 ob from Glasgow MPG, showing temp of 14c, with a max of 15c looking very possible... prob best not to rely to heavily on GFS predicted temps, whether they be max or min.

 

. EGPF 101150Z 21014KT 9999 FEW021 BKN038 14/08 Q1021

As I said, basing my view on the output, so what Glasgow is now has no relevance to the model output from tomorrow until FI. Thats why I said, if you look at the whole of the GFS 0z run its shows no very mild air.

Edited December 10, 2013 by MPG

[shedhead]

Then you're going to be surpised how mild this week turns out to be.

Already 10c in Bristol too where MPG is, so if the sun breaks through there 11-12c should be on the cards...which is not far from the GFS predicted max.

[NorthernRab]

It would be lovely if we could all discuss the models please guys? 

 

I'm currently sitting in a flat in Glasgow, I can tell how mild it is outside by sticking my face out the window (and it's actually quite nice for a wee change!) - what I'd like to hear about is what the models are showing! 

Edited December 10, 2013 by NorthernRab

[shedhead]

As I said, basing my view on the output, so what Glasgow is now has no relevance to the model output from tomrrow until FI.

Only in so much as you posted the GFS predicted max charts to make your point re future temps, but as today proved these can easily be 4 or 5c out.  IF that is the case what looks like normal or rather mild maxima actually turn out to be very mild maxima.

Edited December 10, 2013 by shedhead

[Catacol]

I can only go on what the charts show. That chart shows glasgow at 8 degrees at 15.00. There are national variations, places in the south are just above freezing.

 

Eh??? Where are you in the South of Bristol locale?? I am 40 miles south in Wellington, and my weather station reads 10.7 degrees at 1.20pm and it feels like spring outside.

[shedhead]

It would be lovely if we could all discuss the models please guys? 

 

I'm currently sitting in a flat in Glasgow, I can tell how mild it is outside by sticking my face out the window (and it's actually quite nice for a wee change!) - what I'd like to hear about is what the models are showing! 

Fair point Rab, but this discussion is actually about the GFS model and it's prepensity to undercook maxima....not a subject that hasn't been raised several times before tho I grant you.