Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[March Blizzard]

Ah well amidst all the gloom this would do to cheer up Christmas Eve

 

Let the brass monkeys out to play!

 

 

GFS in chucking us a random superstorm shocker

 

 

 

The Christmas Crippler!

[Summer Sun]

GFS in chucking us a random superstorm shocker

 

 

 

Miles away from whats its ensemble has

 

[Summer Sun]

Today's NAO update shows anything could happen from the 16th onwards pretty much a 50 / 50 split

 

[TSNWK]

Today's NAO update shows anything could happen from the 16th onwards pretty much a 50 / 50 split

 

Good -

uncertainty is a little step in the right direction.

[MR EXTREMES]

just running through earliers ukmo gfs 6z ect ect.

and the cold over in the states is incredible and there is poor little England basking in tropical weather.

 

some of the fi uppers are almost bbq Christmas incredible difference to recent years.

[JK1]

GFS in chucking us a random superstorm shocker

 

 

it showed that earlier too, crazy

Edited December 9, 2013 by JK1

[Due South]

Big Joe B, just tweeted. (Stratosperic warming event starting in Asia. Precursor to blocking in the longer term.)

[MR EXTREMES]

a renewed burst of jet energy exciting the northern states and this will drive the low pressure up ne and over our block so you can expect the block to remain in place for a fair amount of time yet. that's ukmo t60 gfs pretty much the same theme.

 

yeah job b been banging on for the last 6 weeks only to fail in every prediction.

 

gfs t144 pressure starting to fall as heights slip more south hope this continues.

Edited December 9, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[nick sussex]

By the law of averages it was only a matter of time before we saw a throwback to some of those zonal mild spells of past winters. Perhaps recent winters have skewed what its realistic to expect in the UK during winter.

 

I think the best possible out of the current state of the NH pattern re the vortex is that we see a return of the Aleutian ridge and a little more amplification, so some PM air or at very best a northerly toppler.

 

If people are looking for a lengthy cold spell this is going to become very frustrating as its hard to see where a sustained HLB might come from, we're only in early December theres a lot of winter left so I think its going to have to be a patient wait to see what happens later into the season.

[JK1]

Big Joe B, just tweeted. (Stratosperic warming event starting in Asia. Precursor to blocking in the longer term.)

what does that mean for uk? don't really understand blocking and stratospheric warming

[TSNWK]

a renewed burst of jet energy exciting the northern states and this will drive the low pressure up ne and over our block so you can expect the block to remain in place for a fair amount of time yet. that's ukmo t60 gfs pretty much the same theme.

 

yeah job b been banging on for the last 6 weeks only to fail in every prediction.

I think we all know where we are for the next week at least, unless this "renewed" energy was not on this mornings 72, yesterdays 84 etc.

[R.P. McMurphy]

I think we all know where we are for the next week at least, unless this "renewed" energy was not on this mornings 72, yesterdays 84 etc.

I don't see any change for this week, next week is another matter as it's well into FI.

 

We need to look north at the PV - at the moment it's like concrete, solid in it's position with no sign of pertubation. Until we get that lump splitting, and it heading N/S, we dont have much change coming, and think this pattern will just continue until it does.

[TSNWK]

I don't see any change for this week, next week is another matter as it's well into FI.

 

We need to look north at the PV - at the moment it's like concrete, solid in it's position with no sign of pertubation. Until we get that lump splitting, and it heading N/S, we dont have much change coming, and think this pattern will just continue until it does.

Agreed. variations on a theme ( and that might be pushing it) at the moment and for the next 10 days at least.

[Swave Snow]

GFS in chucking us a random superstorm shocker

 

 

 

 

As I keep saying this is popping up a lot right now

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

A mega freeze it isn't and it's not even that cold but any weather is better than this current no weather.

 

 

It's obviously a long way off but it does crack me up when people start posting about being under a bartie high for at least the next 3 weeks and this pattern looks locked in for months etc only for the models to start showing some signs of change only a few days later. It amazes me what goes on in some peoples head sometimes lol.

 

Edited December 9, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Purga]

By the law of averages it was only a matter of time before we saw a throwback to some of those zonal mild spells of past winters. Perhaps recent winters have skewed what its realistic to expect in the UK during winter.

 

I think the best possible out of the current state of the NH pattern re the vortex is that we see a return of the Aleutian ridge and a little more amplification, so some PM air or at very best a northerly toppler.

 

If people are looking for a lengthy cold spell this is going to become very frustrating as its hard to see where a sustained HLB might come from, we're only in early December theres a lot of winter left so I think its going to have to be a patient wait to see what happens later into the season.

Whatever it turns out like this winter, I'm looking forward to reading your narratives Nick. You make the weather model ups & downs and twists and turns seem like a Spielberg blockbuster!

Great stuff!!

[nick sussex]

what does that mean for uk? don't really understand blocking and stratospheric warming

Joe B can be very theatrical at times ! he has a habit of going over the top but in a nutshell a warming of the strat can help slow the zonal winds down and if you get a SSW can reverse these which promotes HLB. The strat thread has a very good explanation if you go to the start where CH explains things in much more detail.

Edited December 9, 2013 by nick sussex

[nick sussex]

Whatever it turns out like this winter, I'm looking forward to reading your narratives Nick. You make the weather model ups & downs and twists and turns seem like a Spielberg blockbuster!

Great stuff!!

I fear I might be going down the Joe B route although, if you want Spielberg blockbuster then I'll do my best! my latest horror rating will be out later, it dipped to 8/10 last night,  the key is when it goes to 5 then I change that to a cold rating!

[TSNWK]

Joe B can be very theatrical at times ! he has a habit of going over the top but in a nutshell a warming of the strat can help slow the zonal winds down and if you get a SSW can reverse these which promotes HLB. The strat thread has a very good explanation if you go to the start where CH explains things in much more detail.

Hello Nick, what is your latest horror rating for this current pattern, Sunday morning I think was 9.5 out of 10, Sunday evening I think was 8.5 - We like trends in this place any marks after this mornings and this afternoon runs to date. Cheers

[draztik]

Latest GFS indicating a lot of rainfall for parts of the NW. With an area of NW Scotland in the 6 inch range..-Accumulated rainfall out to t192

 

[Great Plum]

Obligatory daft GFS low in early FI shocker...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.png

[nick sussex]

Hello Nick, what is your latest horror rating for this current pattern, Sunday morning I think was 9.5 out of 10, Sunday evening I think was 8.5 - We like trends in this place any marks after this mornings and this afternoon runs to date. Cheers

I'll wait till the rest of the outputs come out and I have a look at the GEFS, at the moment its very much determined by the PV blob, I'd guard against reading too much into the GFS projections in terms of southwards extend of colder air in the lower resolution, it has a bias in overdoing that especially with strong PV. If the PV remains as one uniformly rounded across the Arctic then its a no go for cold, some of the recent lower resolutions did at least stretch the PV and disrupted it, the GFS 12hrs  upto 240hrs I'm afraid does not make happy reading!

[The Northern Ramper]

what does that mean for uk? don't really understand blocking and stratospheric warming

It would mean there is an increased chance of high pressure in northern latitudes which may or may not lead to Uk cold. It would mean more sides of the dice are in our favour but no guarantee's

[TSNWK]

I'll wait till the rest of the outputs come out and I have a look at the GEFS, at the moment its very much determined by the PV blob, I'd guard against reading too much into the GFS projections in terms of southwards extend of colder air in the lower resolution, it has a bias in overdoing that especially with strong PV. If the PV remains as one uniformly rounded across the Arctic then its a no go for cold, some of the recent lower resolutions did at least stretch the PV and disrupted it, the GFS 12hrs  upto 240hrs I'm afraid does not make happy reading!

THank you for the reply Nick. Variations on a theme but basically Its Vortex to the Top right, Heights to the Bottom Left for the next 10 days at least if the models are to be believed and in this pattern they tend to be more reliable. 

Edited December 9, 2013 by TSNWK

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

If say we do have a very mild winter, then I really hope next year will deliver more storms. Looking now, I do think zonal weather is looking likely throughout December. The PV will not last forever though, and I think we will see a big change poss late Jan/Feb, as the PV will weaken.