Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[JK1]

i know this is way into FI but I presume it would be extremely windy if this was to happen?

[MP-R]

i know this is way into FI but I presume it would be extremely windy if this was to happen?

 

Very windy indeed. In fact widespread wintry showers would not be out of the question even in the south - perhaps a Christmas period similar to 1999. Damage aside, I would be impressed if that came off!

[R.P. McMurphy]

i know this is way into FI but I presume it would be extremely windy if this was to happen?

Very windy indeed. Especially Northern England and the West... Not to mention Scotland, 945-965mb... Eesh... Windy Xmas.

 

Chance of verification... -5% - 0%

[Purga]

Blow your socks off on Christmas day

At least it's something exciting if we an't have any cold!

[shedhead]

Blow your socks off on Christmas day

At least it's something exciting if we an't have any cold!

IF it came off (and at T+384hrs it's a massive IF) it would certainly feel cold in that Pm flow...especially across the N.

[EML Network]

Look at the extent of that High Pressure system to our south. it's HUGE

 

from the middle of the Atlantic right the way through Russia and beyond in the SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE !!

 

I can't see a way out of that set up this side of 2013.

 

[NorthernRab]

Blow your socks off on Christmas day

At least it's something exciting if we an't have any cold!

 

Two weeks away though, chances of happening are near to zero. However, if it did happen, the set up would only need a slight nudge east for it to introduce some really rather cold, snowy weather from the NW / N accompanied by some severe gales, exciting as you put in Purga indeed!

[forecaster]

Look at the extent of that High Pressure system to our south. it's HUGE

 

from the middle of the Atlantic right the way through Russia and beyond in the SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE !!

 

I can't see a way out of that set up this side of 2013.

 

 

Southern Hemisphere? That image looks like it does't even go as far as the northern hemisphere tropics!

[EML Network]

Southern Hemisphere? That image looks like it does't even go as far as the northern hemisphere tropics!

Yeah you are indeed correct

 

But you get the idea, it certainly looks like it's running into or close to the equatorial regions of the Northern Hemisphere so not a million miles from spilling over into the S.Hemisphere.

 

Which is impressive no matter how pinikity one wants to be about it

[fergieweather]

Well, let's await the next EC32 update later / Tues and see where it sits versus the last one. It showed major step-change to mild from the two issues last week... whether it does a similar turnaround tomorrow is another matter. Will advise...

[Frosty.]

As Forrest Gump's momma used to say, the gfs is like a box of chocolates, ya never know what you're gonna get

 

Now this is true because we couldn't have two such different runs following each other from any other model, sometimes the gfs appears to be stupid is as stupid does...however, I much prefer the latest 6z run because the 00z would have put most of us into a deep sleep. This is a much more mobile run with mild and colder airmasses alternating, some very windy and rainy spells and clearer, colder and showery days with sleet and snow, especially across the hills of the north and occasional frosts, the PFJ digs further south and at least it's an action packed run...whether it's right or not is an entirely different matter but I hope it is.

 

In summary, the gfs shows this week being rather cool and mainly fair apart from the western and northern extremities of the uk where it will be milder and windier with a sw'ly flow with outbreaks of rain and drizzle.

 

If I wanted to watch a comedy, I would watch the joke of an ashes series with england's useless cricketers.

Edited December 9, 2013 by Frosty.

[Swave Snow]

Very windy indeed. Especially Northern England and the West... Not to mention Scotland, 945-965mb... Eesh... Windy Xmas.

 

Chance of verification... -5% - 0%

 

 

Certainly not the first time something of this nature has shown up on GFS for the Day itself.   Look at a post i Made about 4 or 5 days ago about Snow Hurricane, I said 0% chance of verifying, but now this pops up, seems interesting to say the least, something is brewing, just seems kind of nice that it may bring wintry weather around 25th although it is potentially stormy as well.  Thunder Snow maybe?

[pureasthedriven]

Look at the extent of that High Pressure system to our south. it's HUGE

 

from the middle of the Atlantic right the way through Russia and beyond in the SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE !!

 

I can't see a way out of that set up this side of 2013.

 

Doesn't everything inside though just scream 'all a bit odd and not quite right?'

[ribster]

Certainly not the first time something of this nature has shown up on GFS for the Day itself.   Look at a post i Made about 4 or 5 days ago about Snow Hurricane, I said 0% chance of verifying, but now this pops up, seems interesting to say the least, something is brewing, just seems kind of nice that it may bring wintry weather around 25th although it is potentially stormy as well.  Thunder Snow maybe?

Indeed, first tentative signs of something interesting. By the end of the week/into next week could be some eye candy to look at...

[R.P. McMurphy]

Certainly not the first time something of this nature has shown up on GFS for the Day itself.   Look at a post i Made about 4 or 5 days ago about Snow Hurricane, I said 0% chance of verifying, but now this pops up, seems interesting to say the least, something is brewing, just seems kind of nice that it may bring wintry weather around 25th although it is potentially stormy as well.  Thunder Snow maybe?

 

I certainly hope so, that would be a blessing. Thundersnow, Blizzards, tretcherous driving conditions = I dont have to visit anyone over the Christmas period. Bah Humbug.

[Purga]

Two weeks away though, chances of happening are near to zero. However, if it did happen, the set up would only need a slight nudge east for it to introduce some really rather cold, snowy weather from the NW / N accompanied by some severe gales, exciting as you put in Purga indeed!

Real Macbeth weather for your neck of the woods Rab!

 

PS: Was in Cawdor last year - lovely part of the world

[Great Plum]

A couple of colder options creeping in... I'll have the green one!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

[Cheshire Freeze]

A couple of colder options creeping in... I'll have the green one!http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

There's one thing about it, that big mild hump which was showing yesterday (with tight clustering) seems to have been significantly shortened. Unusual when you're staring down the barrel of a prolonged mild spell. It's suggestive of perhaps a slight pattern change starting to be picked up?

[DR(S)NO]

My feeling is that there may well be some sort of pattern change from the rather benign weather we will endure over the next week or so.

I see the GFS has thrown up a stormy festive period......im probably wrong here,but i feel that the Xmas to New Year period often throws up an acive spell of weather.Ive a gut feeling that there will be some very stormy weather centering around this period and as we enter 2014.

[Jason M]

Some of the GEM ensembles are interesting. There is a signal for some HLB in there. Its muted, but nonetheless deep in FI there do appear to be other options at least on the table.

Jason

[IDO]

The ECM Control for the 0z screams HP close to the S/SE:

 

 

Dry and cold. In fact the ens are now tending colder suggesting HP may re-establish after the attempted incursion by the Atlantic.

 

The 06z GFS Op is as daft as it looks being a total nut job on the pressure charts compared to its ens. No support at all:

 

 

The mean at T240:  T384: 

 

Show the continued outlook remains a strong Euro/Russian HP dominating close to the South of the UK.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z perturbations generally keep the love affair with high pressure but one or two have switched to something more wintry, hoping the gefs starts to show a lot more unsettled and colder runs in the run up to christmas, the mean is currently trending more unsettled towards xmas so that's a start.

[Purga]

Ah well amidst all the gloom this would do to cheer up Christmas Eve

[Jimmyh]

Ah well amidst all the gloom this would do to cheer up Christmas Eve

 

Beautiful if only -16 uppers clipping the east coast -12 nicely settled in where is it where i fell out of my bed

[weatherguy]

GFS in chucking us a random superstorm shocker