Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[fergieweather]

Thanks Ian, why were the METO talking about below average temps in the extended period yesterday ? Perhaps waiting for the next EC32 dayer to confirm a lengthy zonal SWerley period ?

Hmm dunno. Perhaps followed the MOGREPS signal at that stage. EC32 out today so will see what it offers.

[trisnow]

If it shows a predomination of mild SW'erlies Ian you'd better don a tin hat before reporting that in here....

Jesus, you are such a dick shedhead. You really are.

[shedhead]

Tin hat on.... there's nought cold in there.

Oh dear....have thought for some time now that this Winter is going to be a slow burner, with the best chance of any sustainable HLB being post mid Jan. Do you have any idea if UKMO are also thinking that the 2nd half might deliver something most of us crave?

[SLEETY]

At this point I would say that if the strat charts are looking the same in

another 3 weeks then you virtually right off January as well.

It is of course very disappointing when a good number of posters look

forward to the winter season to see such poor synoptics that in all

likely hood will not improve for the rest of the month. Which will in

affect right off the first third of meteorological winter even though we

are just a week into it.

I know some posters will say how can you say that and where is the proof

but all I would say is the stratosphere forecasts says it and until this

changes then apart from 24 hour topplers at best that is all we can hope

for.

laughable post.Writing off two months of winter in early December.Go back through the archive charts and see how things can change.

 

Even the bitter cold spells of the past had some vey mild spells before things changed.

 

Maybe you should apply for a job with the met office if you can predict 2 months ahead with such accuracy. 

Edited December 9, 2013 by SLEETY

[R.P. McMurphy]

Hi Ian...yes the PV on ECM looks very menacing, both regard to intensity and it's position over Baffin. I too was surprised at METO's wording yesterday and fully expect a volte face from them today.

 

GFS has the mild air getting close to the Urals next week....next stop Ojmjakon...

 

 

 

Yes Shed,

 

I can't see any pattern, or any signal to stop the relentless mild flow. Once the UK seems to be locked in this pattern, it's always very difficult for any substantial cold to materialise. I dont know how long this will last for, but I know it won't be easy to get bitter temperatures back.

 

Yesterday was a barmy 13C here, I almost cut the lawn, twice.

[SLEETY]

Hmm dunno. Perhaps followed the MOGREPS signal at that stage. EC32 out today so will see what it offers.

ec32 changes so much every run,that I fail to see why so many people swear by it.

 

Did it pick up the very cold March for  example,dont think so.

[fergieweather]

Oh dear....have thought for some time now that this Winter is going to be a slow burner, with the best chance of any sustainable HLB being post mid Jan. Do you have any idea if UKMO are also thinking that the 2nd half might deliver something most of us crave?

No idea... hasn't been discussed.

[legritter]

OK ,Ground Hog Days it may be ,but a fair possibility going by models of some action weather in later outputs this morning .at this range the location of Atlantic lows and high pressure over Europe could change on following runs and we could finish up with some pretty lively weather come next week .i expect a very interesting run of GFS today and probably over the coming days as well ,so perhaps some cheer on the horizon gang .

[pdiddy]

When the models show this sort of consistency, it's all eyes on pattern change.  For newbies and other novice model watchers - and I class myself as one - it's far better for the dialogue in here to be about "when and how" this might occur.  For me that's looking at ensemble trends and subtle changes in PV positioning and, as things stand, I can't see any improvement in the reliable timeframe if it's a cold outlook that's required.  Perhaps some of the more "experienced" members can devote their time and energy to spotting the opportunities for pattern change earlier than those less able to read the signs.

[Jo Farrow]

Yes, the Shannon entropy for the pattern over at least next 10 days is low so good confidence on broadscale. Given the sizeable degree of baroclinicity in the pattern to W/NW & EC continuing to splatter 930MB lows into it south of Iceland, the key forecast challenge is just how such developments may become realised & impacts for e.g. NW Scotland. MOGREPS holds-on to the more anticyclonic feed across S/SE for longer but Exeter favour the EC/GFS more progressive story from weekend into next week.

Yes, Chris Tubbs MO Medium range forecaster analysis is interesting from this morning

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Yes, Chris Tubbs MO Medium range forecaster analysis is interesting from this morning

 

 

Ooooooo do spill the beans??

[Jo Farrow]

Ooooooo do spill the beans??

No nothing exciting, just like what fergie weather wrote, sorry

[Summer Sun]

The latest GFS rainfall charts show very little in the way of rain for the south and east as all of England and wales remains well below normal to Christmas day

 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

No nothing exciting, just like what fergie weather wrote, sorry

 

Fair enough, thought it might become a bit more unsettled looking at the models this morning. Still IMO unsettled is much better than the benign stuff currently.

[Paul]

Final warning for some (particularly those who have already been pm'd about this sort of thing in the last few weeks...)

 

If you see a post you think is a problem them please report it, responding to it and using the forum to have a go at other members is unacceptable and will lead to people being stopped from posting in any of the model threads.

[fergieweather]

Yes, Chris Tubbs MO Medium range forecaster analysis is interesting from this morning

Indeed Jo. It'll be interesting to see how it pans-out next week.

[Jo Farrow]

Indeed Jo. It'll be interesting to see how it pans-out next week.

This week will be a chore for anyone broadcasting, with maybe some excitement for the weekend/start of next week

[fergieweather]

This week will be a chore for anyone broadcasting, with maybe some excitement for the weekend/start of next week

My thoughts precisely!!!

[UV-RAY]

This week will be a chore for anyone broadcasting, with maybe some excitement for the weekend/start of next week

You could always do a forecast for the States Jo, plenty of interesting weather going on over there.

Edited December 9, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[R.P. McMurphy]

This week will be a chore for anyone broadcasting, with maybe some excitement for the weekend/start of next week

What's with the cryptic messages!?!?! What is this excitement you speak of?!?!

 

[Steve C]

What's with the cryptic messages!?!?! What is this excitement you speak of?!?!

 

I don't think there's anything really hidden ... From Ian's post, it seems the (possible) answer will lie in next week's ECM and GFS predictions.

[Great Plum]

This isn't the first time this has been suggested in deep FI...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.png

Frosty for Christmas?

[shedhead]

The 06 GFS has swung rather more into line with the more unsettled ECM at +T+192hrs,  by dropped the HP into France and producing a strong and very mild SW flow.

 

 

 

Thereafter FI does introduce a rather less flat pattern, so maybe some 'colder' spells at times, but anything cold still looks a very long way off...for now.

[beng]

What's with the cryptic messages!?!?! What is this excitement you speak of?!?!

 

 

 

Just that there's low confidence in model outputs at the moment, but there's the potential for some stormy weather in a weeks time, primarily in the North and West - if I've understood correctly.  

 

Additionally, this week will be boring for the Pro forecasters too with not much to say from day to day - but maybe this is an opportunity for them to just record and repeat the same forecast for the next couple of days and get their Christmas shopping finished instead. 

Edited December 9, 2013 by beng

[MP-R]

I do wish the FI GFS charts would hurry up loading. It seems to have frozen on Saturday 21st! 

 

The ECM certainly doesn't hold back wrt low pressure taking over next week.