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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

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The high at t192 is further east tonight on ECM with winds coming from the south west it certainly wouldn't be cold

 

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Oh dear this looks all purpley and vortexy and from such promising beginnings. Another extreme mild option from day 8 in the ensembles no doubt.

 

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Lest we forget that this could all change on the pub run or tomorrows runs.  Lets hope we can consign these to this....

 

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Slightly cooler and more unsettled at t216 in the north

 

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Edited by Summer Sun

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Slightly better than yesterdays horror show but todays effort is still pretty poor http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif!! There is some movement north of the high but its all pretty nondescript and makes the gem run in particular look a bit like a rogue run that occasionally gets spit out to help cheer us up. I think the pattern for the next two weeks is probably set now although xmas week is still probably up for grabs. As always hope I'm wrong about that

Edited by Continental Climate

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Interesting cold formation shaped like a crab claw and the UK in the middle. OOOps 0Z.

 

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Edited by Jason T

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t240 from ECM cooler in Scotland but milder else where

 

 

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Edited by Summer Sun

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For all the newbies out there and all this talk of a potential Scandi High, this is a brilliant and in depth read which I would urge you to take in and gain some knowledge of just what the perfect & right Scandinavian High can do....

But at the same time, it can bring benign weather, if it's cold your after...

Hope NW don't mind me posting this, but it's too good of a read and some great valuable information for newbies:

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/49473-the-severe-winter-1890-91-a-special-report/

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Horrible ECM :( it's a long route to anything cold with the PV in that position

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t240 from ECM cooler in Scotland but milder else where

 

 

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Indeedy Gav, that will feel quite warm from recent days, potential for double figures there, albeit we'll into FI and to be taken with a pinch of salt, but might require people to dust off the old Mower if it carries on !!

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ECM what you like? Started off a tad better and held a little interest in the middle, but my my what a shocking ending from 192 onwards. Raging vortex plotted over southern Greenland, with high pressure rooted to the south of the UK, with a gentle, mild waft of air from our south west.

Only postive I can take from this evening is that there did appear to be a slight improvement early to mid range, maybe that trend will continue, breach a tipping point and hey we have the gem take on things.

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This goes to show my previous point!! Any potential good Synoptics need to happen because look winter HAS started now and upto Christmas at least there's nothing exciting synoptic wise on the way!!

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ECM what you like? Started off a tad better and held a little interest in the middle, but my my what a shocking ending from 192 onwards. Raging vortex plotted over southern Greenland, with high pressure rooted to the south of the UK, with a gentle, mild waft of air from our south west.

Only postive I can take from this evening is that there did appear to be a slight improvement early to mid range, maybe that trend will continue, breach a tipping point and hey we have the gem take on things.

 

Optimism, you have to admire it. Posted Image

 

But yes there is plenty of room for change yet even though those changes need to be made in the relatively short term output to give us real hope later.

We should have a much better handle on how amplified the pattern will look within the next 24/48 hours as the models begin to pin down all the details I described in an earlier post.

To beast or not to beast, that is the question. 

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 Yes it's always considered at Ops Centre (despite some less favourable performance at times) but it's not got any meaningful support as it stands right now re the Scandinavian high evolution (12z EC is obviously yet to be seen) and isn't the favoured solution. The longer-range ensembles and flow diagnostics, aside from hints from last EC32 (updated output due anyway on Fri) don't generally paint any compellingly colder signal through to Christmas but we've a long way to go on all that, so it's not worth hanging-out all the detail on the regime clusters etc (we focus on stuff sub-T+240 generally anyway).

So is the GEM not particulaly facvoured because it is the wrong set up or because its evolution is just too fast? I thought i read that high pressure to the North/East was a favoured solution by the met yesterday (EC 32 solution too) although this was around day 15? Sorry if i picked the wrong end of the stick up somehow. 

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the ecm 12z op is bang in line with the 00z ens spreads. of course the suite could be wrong but if the op and ens clustering are both pointing in the same direction, it really should be used as the most likely direction of travel.the nw of the uk would seem to be in line for some mobile conditions as expected. not so certain the further se you head. i expect those less chilly runs will be much more noticeable on the london ens later. so much variation on the extended gefs as to make the output pretty useless. the gfs picked up on more energy going into the n arm of the split flow next week and the other models have followed. if this idea is wrong, then a big about turn is feasible.  

This goes to show my previous point!! Any potential good Synoptics need to happen because look winter HAS started now and upto Christmas at least there's nothing exciting synoptic wise on the way!!

 on what basis ??????? xmas is three weeks away. dont take ian's posts as gospel. he knows as much as the next man beyond a week and that pretty much nowt for certain!

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I prefer to think that the poor synoptics are there to lull us all into a false sense of security and the Beast will sneak up on us and we won't even see it coming.  Posted Image

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ECM what you like? Started off a tad better and held a little interest in the middle, but my my what a shocking ending from 192 onwards. Raging vortex plotted over southern Greenland, with high pressure rooted to the south of the UK, with a gentle, mild waft of air from our south west.Only postive I can take from this evening is that there did appear to be a slight improvement early to mid range, maybe that trend will continue, breach a tipping point and hey we have the gem take on things.

yes true but when theres cold showing in FI we r always told its FI its not gna happen

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We are not far away from having this high pressure near or over us for a month. If you then look at the general consensus of the output going forward for the next ten days or so, it is still near or over us.

The result could be described as monotomus but certainly unusual for the time of year.

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the ecm 12z op is bang in line with the 00z ens spreads. of course the suite could be wrong but if the op and ens clustering are both pointing in the same direction, it really should be used as the most likely direction of travel. the nw of the uk would seem to be in line for some mobile conditions as expected. not so certain the further se you head. i expect those less chilly runs will be much more noticeable on the london ens later. so much variation on the extended gefs as to make the output pretty useless. the gfs picked up on more energy going into the n arm of the split flow next week and the other models have followed. if this idea is wrong, then a big about turn is feasible.   on what basis ??????? xmas is three weeks away. dont take ian's posts as gospel. he knows as much as the next man beyond a week and that pretty much nowt for certain!

 

 

 

 

Not so sure about that but it depends on your meaning, "bang in line"

The 12z is a warm up from the 12th with London surely hitting high single digits, maybe even double digits which would likely be well above the mean of around 6 or 7 for the same period as shown in the 00z set.

Unless tonight's set have continued the trend for milder (and worth noting here that GFS 12z actually trended colder than previous) then I would still very much expect ECM Op to be above the mean and certainly not "bang in line" in that respect - but we shall see.

Edited by Mucka

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I'm hoping some good ECM ens give hope to potential cold, we don't need a drastic change in that euro high for its positioning to supply a possible eastily flow. Sometimes a high can be completely replaced by a low within 10 days, never mind move a bit North , then east!!

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A couple of glimmers this evening but that's about it.

I noted Ian's view earlier that we were looking at losing pretty much all of December to this setup. Whilst I don't agree with the certainty he expressed it is certainly very possible that things will pan out the way he suggested. From where we will be sat next Monday the usual route forward is for the high to decline away to the SE and usher in a period of zonality.

The GEFS thus evening are a little better than this morning but that's starting from a really low base. We can't completely discount GEM as Fergie points out and equally its worth noting that ECMs reliability is just as poor as GFS by days 9 and 10. I think some put too much faith in ECMs later output tbh.

As of tonight the IB way forward seems most likely. To me that's just obvious and to deny it would be contrary to what sits in front of us. That said I disagree with IB in that it's certainly not inevitable and it's too early to say with any certainty that Christmas will be mild this year. Not sure I'll be visiting the bookies though given the output today :-)

Edited by Jason M

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Not so sure about that but it depends on your meaning, "bang in line"

The 12z is a warm up from the 12th with London surely hitting high single digits, maybe even double digits which would likely be well above the mean of around 6 or 7 for the same period as shown in the 00z set.

Unless tonight's set have continued the trend for milder (and worth noting here that GFS 12z actually trended colder than previous) then I would still very much expect ECM Op to be above the mean and certainly not "bang in line" in that respect - but we shall see.

 

 

i'm talking about the z500 spreads mucka. wherever the 00z had the clustering and jet energy at day 10, the 12z op followed.  too late to show you now as the 12z has updated the 00z charts.

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