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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

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Afternoon all :)

 

All we can say thus far with the 12Z Operational output is that HP is firmly in charge and it's a case of "chase the anticyclone" round Europe for much of early and mid December. Living in lowland East London, I would be the beneficiary of any SE'ly flow however light and that looks more than likely in the coming days.

 

Frost and fog - well, the skies have cleared quickly here this afternoon and I don't rule out areas of clearer air which could provide some interesting night time conditions and possibly lingering daytime fog (though GFS is less supportive of that).

 

GEM is obviously a huge straw for cold fans to clutch - it's a model which one or two on here disparage and others think deserves more credit than it gets. I remain sceptical of its 12Z Operational evolution but as Mr Fergusson suggests, is's not completely out of the park.

 

Even GFS resists sending the HP south and offers a tentative drift north to Denmark before at the very end of FI a new Atlantic HP takes over.

 

ECM may throw another evolution into the pot - or it may not. We're barely into winter and those who remember last year's four week diet of mild, wet and windy from mid-December to mid-January certainly can say that midwinter 2013 seems to be heading in a different direction.

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Anyone fancy a 1070mb Greeny high ?

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

All options appear to be on the table from mid month, though I doubt very much a greenland high will be one of them cometh the hour.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer

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Fascinating output by the GEM tonight (I've always rated that model Posted Image ).

 

There certainly appears to be a tipping point somewhere in the upcoming setup where we could go one way or the other. I'd say at around about the 5 day mark with the downstream effects of the amplification and subsequent WAA surge. The GEM certainly makes much of the trough in Eastern Europe which then becomes the driver for getting the cold advecting westwards and the eventual retrogression of the high pressure over Greenland.

Edited by s4lancia

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It would take years for a chart like this to come true.

 

Posted Image

 

That's the kind of stuff you find in a random CFS run 2000 hours in.

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It would take years for a chart like this to come true.

 

Posted Image

 

That's the kind of stuff you find in a random CFS run 2000 hours in.

I think thats the kind of chart we all see in our dreams..if its cold you after that is....if something like that came to t96 this place would go into meltdown mode...guess its over to the ECM now to see what it thinks....

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Speaking of the CFS

 

Posted Image

 

9 month is even better!!!

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by SN0WM4N

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It would take years for a chart like this to come true.

Posted Image

That's the kind of stuff you find in a random CFS run 2000 hours in.

Never say never.

I recall many being totally shocked by the Nov/Dec 2010 freeze up then March this year with the Easterly.Especially after our run of milder winters.

I have a feeling about Friday the 13th being decidedly lucky weatherwise in regard to our blocking

Edited by winterof79

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Hello.. Not a single reference to this evenings metoffice run. I took a aprehensve peep and thought it was trying to drift the high north towards the end, actually not as bad as I feared when I think of the lack of posts. Or have I completely misread the chart and its a painful run to talk about :)

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Never say never.

I recall many being totally shocked by the Nov/Dec 2010 freeze up then March this year with the Easterly.Especially after our run of milder winters.

I have a feeling about Friday the 13th being decidedly lucky weatherwise in regard to our blocking

Hehe.

 

Those charts are built from a close time scale.

 

The models producing these charts make less of the downstream energy over western Russia coming from the north.

 

GFS Posted Image GEM Posted Image

GFS looks like it spilled its tea and forgot to mop up, GEM makes a spillage but mops up after creating a nice link between the two blocks allowing any energy left to slip under and prop the block up and let it build.

Edited by SN0WM4N

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GFS 12z SE England  ensembles do not suggest a flat jet or a mild SW taking hold second half of December with the 850 mean falling back to 0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=302&y=126

 

And the 2m Temps falling away to around a 5c mean with some colder options still in evidence

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=295&y=126&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

To be fair they don't suggest a strong Easterly or NE either, just a slack continental flow in the main

Edited by Mucka

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Mehh not there yet.

 

Posted Image

Still a big spillage over western russia but its made some adjustments with ridging further east and the trough in the Atlantic digging further south.

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Mehh not there yet.

 

Posted Image

Still a big spillage over western russia but its made some adjustments with ridging further east and the trough in the Atlantic digging further south.

 

Agreed, not there.

 

Interesting ECM chart at 96h, being it's really the only op that has pushed energy SE with that slider at this stage.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Mucka

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ECM could look good depending on how things are handled, how fast/deep the trough can go SE how much downstream energy happens ect.

Edited by SN0WM4N

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ECM doesn't seem to be following the GEM at T120. Low going over the top.

 

Posted Image

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Posted Image Posted Image

 

Nothing like the GEM but better.

Edited by SN0WM4N

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Posted Image Posted Image

 

 

 

Much better with the trough to our East (no comparison to yesterdays ECM) but a bit too much energy over the top for my liking - a big improvement on how the T96 period is modelled though, hope UKMO comes on board with that tomorrow.

Edited by Mucka

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GFS Posted Image ECMPosted Image

Clear winner there if its cold you're after.

 

ECM doesn't want to dig its studs into the block as much as the GFS better amplification as well.

Edited by SN0WM4N

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ECM 120 from Wetter. Certainly some potential.

 

Posted Image

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Nope. ECM held an inkling of interest between 120&144, 168 looks poor. Vortex kicking up north.

192 ouch!

Edited by TSNWK

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ECM 120 from Wetter. Certainly some potential.

 

Posted Image

Agreed but the energy still looks like its gonna go through , we need a negative tilt on the low pressure out west to go under the block then we would be on the money, but definitely better than earlier !!

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Gosh, just looked at the GEM 12z. Beauty eh!

 

There is a definite signal for a strong high pressure over Europe from all the models. The question is can we get a wrap around low to cut it off and send things into winter proper, or will we just see a rubbish euro high to our east pumping warm air over the UK. 

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Oh dear this looks all purpley and vortexy and from such promising beginnings. Another extreme mild option from day 8 in the ensembles no doubt.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Mucka

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