Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Tim Bland]

It's still going for an Easterly,

 

Wait there! Ill get my sledge!

Seriously though if that is the best possible outcome it is a very dissapointing start to the season compared to recent years.  We have to take the highs with the lows though. It's these periods that will make it all the more exciting when the real eye candy pops up in a few weeks time

[swfc]

I don't think Gem has backed off the idea , Nice continental feed and a few more frames and it looks like you would get the Easterly ... Still the pick of the bunch for Cold. 

Iagree ts the best run today but the down grade is huge from yesterday and looking at the pv its going the way of gfs and ecm imo

[pip22]

Not a very festive looking GFS. Even Scandinavia will see a green christmas at this rate

 

h850t850eu.png

Cold North-westerly winds not far though, its getting there.

[snowmadchrisuk]

my fave GEM Ensemble from this morning . 

 

[Bobby]

Found this in the GEM suite..... what am i looking at lol..

 

 

        

 

That shows areas of divergence/uncertainty in the ensembles for the upper air temps I believe, yellows and oranges where there is the greatest spread/difference.

Edited December 5, 2013 by Bobby

[winterof79]

Latest from Joe B..."Winter mainly over continent of Europe next 2 weeks, but blocking developing means UK may have widespread white Christmas!

That tweet was posted on here a day or two back.More upto date data available now. Edited December 5, 2013 by winterof79

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles pretty dreadful at the end of hi res if you are looking for cold and snow and with the last hopes of getting a decent block in place before the PV gets reorganised disappearing then the outlook is poor.

Barring some backtracking, gobsmacking, flipflopping. flatcapping, catflapping tomorrow, a break from model watching will at least present a good opportunity to recharge the batteries ready for the next episode of this electronic soap opera. 

[Polar Front]

I know its frustrating but try to be patient, who knows what will happen down the line.

Most of the best winters in the 70's and 80's only got going post christmas so things may look very different in a couple of weeks time,im hoping it wont look this poor anyway!!

Exactly...........Look at this from 31/12/78............. Even London was buried............

 

 

[phil nw.]

Heads up-16 recent posts have been moved to here-http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/

 

a lot of them about a tweet from JB and moans or replies to the charts without any discussion.

 

Come on guys give us a break and self moderate so we can keep this thread informative.

 

Thanks.

[swfc]

Exactly...........Look at this from 31/12/78............. Even London was buried............

 

 

Thats a great chart and i remember that year well.look at the blocking tho and the position of the pv!!!!not saying it wont happen again but were light years from that set up imo

[nick sussex]

Not too much of a surprise to see the GEM back track from its earlier 00hrs output. In  a reversal of fortune we now see the UKMO having the best or should I say least worst profile at T144hrs, the GEM and GFS are both underwhelming if you're looking for a pre-Xmas miracle.

 

The UKMO looks a little more amplified upstream and has a better profile near the pole, but over the last few days it has shown a bias for overamplifying at T144hrs.

 

I hope the ECM follows the UKMO just so we can see what its 168hrs output might look like. I think we're on to plan C now in terms of finding some cold, I think the easterly is a complete non-starter at least within the T240hrs timeframe, the next salvage attempt is for high pressure nosing through the gap between the evil looking purple PV blob to the west and PV chunk to the east,

 

If that's not to be and its a longshot then high pressure close by keeping things generally dry but still some uncertainty re the flow into the UK, so temps could vary widely depending if its a sw/s or more se'rly flow.

[igloo]

Thats a great chart and i remember that year well.look at the blocking tho and the position of the pv!!!!not saying it wont happen again but were light years from that set up imo

how many of us would give a arm or a leg for the PV to be in this position.im not to worried what the models show at this time as big changes happen very quickly

[Great Plum]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Worst winter ensembles ever? Yawn...

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.pngWorst winter ensembles ever? Yawn...

The are the upper air ensembles,the surface ones may be more interesting.

I feel temps in the 5 to 9 region and a bit lower at night will be on the cards.

Not massively mild and a darn site better than wind and rain.

Maybe a bit of fog thrown in for good measure.

All in all a very benign spell for us and i would imagine not hugely different across much of europe..

[Cleeve Hill]

The weather pattern looks pretty locked in for the next 7 - 10 days, but with v light winds and it is December does anybody have any ideas of what the temperature might be ? This has all the makings of fog and progressively colder temps over time. It doesn't have to snow for proper winter weather

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The weather pattern looks pretty locked in for the next 7 - 10 days, but with v light winds and it is December does anybody have any ideas of what the temperature might be ? This has all the makings of fog and progressively colder temps over time. It doesn't have to snow for proper winter weather

It may well vary across the UK.

It all depends where the high sets up but the further south and east you are the colder i would imagine.

HTH.

[bradymk]

The weather pattern looks pretty locked in for the next 7 - 10 days, but with v light winds and it is December does anybody have any ideas of what the temperature might be ? This has all the makings of fog and progressively colder temps over time. It doesn't have to snow for proper winter weather

Depends how much of a south easterly, continental flow we can get out of it. GEM has a cold surface flow, max 2-5c for most of England & Wales. Milder far west and NW. Hopefully the ECM has the position of the high so that we can get some inversion cold too, probably the most realistic way we could get cold weather in the next two weeks.

Edited December 5, 2013 by bradythemole

[Ian Brown]

ECM rather better at T168, more of a vertically lined jet rather than SW-NE.

[bluearmy]

was about to post that if ecm was going to be of any interest, it had to pop up at day 7. and it does. wonder if the atlantic can be held back for the remainder of the run ? based on what we've seen so far today, doubtful

[Panayiotis]

12z ECM looking much better at 168hrs compared to the 00z. The low over the Azores has been deepened at 144hrs causing a better WAA northwards, this could be a good run...

[Captain Shortwave]

Up she goes

Should get some sort of cold continental flow developing from here.

[Joe Levy]

Quite a nice chart on the ECM 12z at 192 hours!

[cold snap]

Here we go again ecm

192 and the flow is ........yep your right from the continent

[Panayiotis]

MUCH, MUCH better! Postive PDO earlier in the run helped get heights near the pole which is helping to split the vortex, at 216hrs we should see part of the PV over Russia move under the block with the block moving over Scandi...

Edited December 5, 2013 by Panayiotis

[swfc]

Wow ecm throws in a curveball at 192 hours!!!wonder if the ukmo would have pushed on to that close but not close enough

Edited December 5, 2013 by swfc