Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Great Plum]

By the middle of next week, it could be decidedly chilly in the middle of the country...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.png

[Mucka]

Well UKMO not continuing with this mornings improvement and taking a step backward, at least it is better than GFS. 

 

 

Some nice ridging on the opposite side of the pole but certainly we'd be playing the long game from out of the rough from here - a 2 iron rather than the SW I think Geeves.

Edited December 5, 2013 by Mucka

[TSNWK]

By the middle of next week, it could be decidedly chilly in the middle of the country...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1

So GFS sticking with MLB high then. No cold out east. Sorry for the guess, no access to charts.

[Joe Levy]

Better ridging northward from the European high towards Scandinavia and beyond

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Not much to add really.

No hope of the NAO or AO getting anywhere near negative for a good while with a raging jet and strong PV.

I hate the saying but it really applies to say its a long long way  to cold from here.

 

All that cold bottled up over the Arctic is NOT a good sign for the UK at all it will just feed the jet.

GFS 12Z shows the northern arm firing away to our north,the best we can hope for is the block to hold to our E/SE and pray for a break down the line...

[Barry12]

The GEM is coming out now should be interesting, can it keep up the Easterly trend?

 

T+48

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Better ridging northward from the European high towards Scandinavia and beyond

That chart is pretty much everything we don't want to see unfortuantely.

[Great Plum]

So GFS sticking with MLB high then. No cold out east. Sorry for the guess, no access to charts.

Spot on...Perhaps some interest from this chart...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.pngRidging up to the north - I expect it will be flattened... But...

[The Northern Ramper]

Well UKMO not continuing with this mornings improvement and taking a step backward, at least it is better than GFS. 

 

 

Some nice ridging on the opposite side of the pole but certainly we'd be playing the long game from out of the rough from here - a 2 iron rather than the SW I think Geeves.

I've not seen the rest of the Ukmo but that looks like an undercut in progress.

[Mucka]

Better ridging northward from the European high towards Scandinavia and beyond

 

If things get to that point Joe I fear we will need a new breed of super strength straw to raise hopes of anything pre Xmas.

All eyes on GEM to see if it finally backs down, seems likely given the rest of today's output although this mornings UKMO did raise my hopes briefly.

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

That chart is pretty much everything we don't want to see unfortuantely.

It looks a lot better than the 06z looked at that time !

[Barry12]

I've not seen the rest of the Ukmo but that looks like an undercut in progress.

 

No one has!

[Joe Levy]

It looks a lot better than the 06z looked at that time !

That was what I thought! I don't think I said it was perfect, but better haha

[Barry12]

GEM T+72

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

That was what I thought! I don't think I said it was perfect, but better haha

Its shows a huge PV and a jet as flat as a witches dooda.

Not sure how its better than 06z just a variation on a dreadful setup.

[Barry12]

GEM T+96

 

 

Sadly, I think a backtrack might be on

 

T+120

 

Edited December 5, 2013 by Barry95

[Tim Bland]

Not a very festive looking GFS. Even Scandinavia will see a green christmas at this rate

 

Edited December 5, 2013 by Tim Bland

[Mucka]

I've not seen the rest of the Ukmo but that looks like an undercut in progress.

 

Could you elaborate. You mean to the East or West?

My take;

Hard to project from the 144 chart but the undercut of the trough to the East at too lower latitude (2nd Bus) to prop up the high enough to get better amplification and reap the benefits of the Southerly jet IMO. We might get a decent mid lat block with a slack continental flow for the SE and if everything went our way get some undercut from there but very difficult to see a proper Scandi high forming from there with a high enough latitude to bring in cold uppers.

[Mucka]

Aww bless GEM still trying its little heart out even though it is progressively moving things East and dealing in finer margins each run.

 

 

The straw that broke the Easterlies back?

Edited December 5, 2013 by Mucka

[swfc]

gem looks ready to give it up at 138 hrs!slowly dropping in line with the other underwelming outlook

[Ian Brown]

Not much to add really.

No hope of the NAO or AO getting anywhere near negative for a good while with a raging jet and strong PV.

I hate the saying but it really applies to say its a long long way  to cold from here.

 

All that cold bottled up over the Arctic is NOT a good sign for the UK at all it will just feed the jet.

GFS 12Z shows the northern arm firing away to our north,the best we can hope for is the block to hold to our E/SE and pray for a break down the line...

 

Yes it is just a case of hoping that MLB can hold on, unless you like even milder temps and wind and rain. The profile at Northern latitudes is as poor as it can be.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

gem looks ready to give it up at 138 hrs!slowly dropping in line with the other underwelming outlook

We are going to need to be really patient this winter.

In my head i have laready written off the first half of December,and probably a bit more if i were being honest with myself.

That slug of a high over Eastern Europe in tandem with a huge and intense PV to our NW is a recipe for frustration across much of mainland Europe!

[bradymk]

GEM backs down from the bitter easterly but still best of the 12z's, well in terms of surface cold towards end of the run. Think thats what we need to aim for now, continental cold surface feed being realistic. Won't deliver snow but at least it will be more festive

Edited December 5, 2013 by bradythemole

[Gowon]

It's still going for an Easterly,

 

Edited December 5, 2013 by Vivian

[snowmadchrisuk]

I don't think Gem has backed off the idea , Nice continental feed and a few more frames and it looks like you would get the Easterly ... Still the pick of the bunch for Cold.