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Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows the PFJ eventually being forced further and further south as another surge of lowering heights swings southeast just before christmas and then continues through to the new year, so I think this is showing the very unsettled pattern digging in even more as time goes on with increasingly cold zonality as the polar / arctic air gradually has less atlantic ocean to cross before it reaches the uk and with less mixing out of the cold uppers as the jet becomes aligned more towards nw / se...there could be a higher risk of snow, ice and frosts between christmas and new year. I will be surprised if the met office update today doesn't mention the word snow in the 6-15 day outlook, they didn't yesterday but they might today depending on a lot of other factors, such as mogreps.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Interesting chat with the team this morning. The December prediction going to plan with the rather mild conditions prevailing (ie ) westerly mobile flow to the north and solid high zone further south over mainland Europe. Signs now taking place of a shift southwards of the polar front over the Christmas to New Year period. Prior to this period a lot of rain expected over Southern England on the boundary of the front if not already happening. Increasing confidence (60%) of a wider change to colder conditions over January, which I assume would be a marked rise of pressure over the Arctic zone . In the meantime cannot see much snowfall over here on the run up to Christmas.

 C

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The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows the PFJ eventually being forced further and further south as another surge of lowering heights swings southeast just before christmas and then continues through to the new year, so I think this is showing the very unsettled pattern digging in even more as time goes on with increasingly cold zonality as the polar / arctic air gradually has less atlantic ocean to cross before it reaches the uk and with less mixing out of the cold uppers as the jet becomes aligned more towards nw / se...there could be a higher risk of snow, ice and frosts between christmas and new year. I will be surprised if the met office update today doesn't mention the word snow in the 6-15 day outlook, they didn't yesterday but they might today depending on a lot of other factors, such as mogreps.

Yes Karl,as i mentioned in my post,there is potential for some snow across the north esp pennine routes the highlands NYM etc but for the majority nowt but wind and rain.Without some sort of blocking in place to our north any PM flow will be transient and high pressure will build again across mainland Europe as depicted by 06z GFS.

Still,beggars cant be choosers :D

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Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day

Hope this does not come off for Christmas day!

Posted Imagegens-16-1-192.png

that just looks too low for me GEFS chucking out its dartboard lows. If that did and it is a massive if as still way in FI would be destructive across a huge swathe of the country. Think this is unlikely

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I like this at the end of the GEFS 00z control run, a happy new year for coldies.Posted Image

post-4783-0-48828700-1387278940_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

We need to see the back of the huge swathe of High pressure stretching from the Azores right across Europe to the Ukraine C,there seems to be no end to it,even warsaw is struggling to get below freezing at the moment!

Indeed HD, but history has shown it can be very resilient and shifting it for more than a few days can extremely difficult.  Looking at the 06 GFS it does take a bit of a beating in the medium term, but like an unwanted house guest it's very much back again in the early new year. 

 

Posted Image

Edited by shedhead
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Indeed HD, but history has shown it can be very resilient and shifting it for more than a few days can extremely difficult.  Looking at the 06 GFS it does take a bit of a beating in the medium term, but like an unwanted house guest it's very much back again in the early new year. 

 

Posted Image

Agreed,without blocking to the north HP will build again to our south in response to the very strong jet which still shows no sign of abaiting.

If i were 400m up and living in the north i'd be quite excited about the christmas period though as we do look set to have a short spell when the jet does sink far enough south to allow for a brief spell of PM air

Edited by happy days
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Unfortunately the NWP just keeps on showing the strength and sustainability of the entrenched Vortex driven zonal pattern. As Steve Murr rightly stated in his recent post, the type of pattern we are now seeing often sets the tone fo the entire winter.

Parts of Canada are having a real hum-dinger of a winter and that is a problem for us as it provides a ready source of bitterly cold airmass to sweep out into the warm Atlantic inducing explosive cyclogenesis and a supercharged flat jet right towards us. There is no hope of anything but very tansitory ridging occuring in such a setup.

Despite the odd hints from FI charts at a cooler NW or N flow most times. it's very brief and quickly flattened by the relentless progression of depressions blasting out of Newfounland.

The Vortex seems to be magnetically drawn back to it's favoured home in N Canada / Greenland from whence it's malignant influence ensures good old GB will remain predominantly mild, stormy and unsettled well into the new year and possibly beyond.

 

Funny thing is that pressure is trying to build over the pole which is driving the jet south but not far enough for any proper cold to get hold. Huge negative anomaly to the west sustaining very windy unsettled conditions.

 

Posted Image

We really need more forcing - somehow - for the High Pressure signal over the pole to strengthen and become the dominant driver. A forlorn hope but a hope nontheless. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

No real change in the NWP today - strong vortex, +AO, strong jet, heights to the S/SE are likely to continue through the holiday period.

 

Others will put some optimistic spin but things are really pretty grim if you're a 'coldie' and live in lowland Britain.  The big worry now is when will a pattern change occur - we've all seen this kind of setup with a raging PV stick for a long time.  Time will tell I guess...

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

No real change in the NWP today - strong vortex, +AO, strong jet, heights to the S/SE are likely to continue through the holiday period. Others will put some optimistic spin but things are really pretty grim if you're a 'coldie' and live in lowland Britain.  The big worry now is when will a pattern change occur - we've all seen this kind of setup with a raging PV stick for a long time.  Time will tell I guess...

For such a dire set up I awoke to a dusting of snow this morning. Far too much negative spin put on the the model output, sure if you live in the South it's not so good but for a lot of others the outlook has a wintry look to it.
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

 

We really need more forcing - somehow - for the High Pressure signal over the pole to strengthen and become the dominant driver. A forlorn hope but a hope nontheless. Posted Image

 

Why is that forlorn purga? i think its fairly realistic over time.

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Posted
  • Location: Manhattan, USA
  • Location: Manhattan, USA

For such a dire set up I awoke to a dusting of snow this morning. Far too much negative spin put on the the model output, sure if you live in the South it's not so good but for a lot of others the outlook has a wintry look to it.

 

I think this is where the problems / negative comments about the models are coming from. The mountains here had a dusting too, which wasnt expected.

 

I woke to a harsh frost too.

 

It's mainly a North/South divide thing, as in for the South it's looking quite poor, but for the North we have things to shout about.

 

Just check out Metcheck forecast for Buxton, or take a look at the charts = lots of snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

Brrrrrrrrrrrrr  Posted Image Colder incursions aplenty to look forward to it would appear should this pick of the bunch verify.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The end of GFS 06z has more of the same as we move into 2014 with low pressure systems continuing to sweep in off the Atlantic

 

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

As a result temperatures are never far away from average for most the only exception would probably be parts of Scotland

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

Yes Karl,as i mentioned in my post,there is potential for some snow across the north esp pennine routes the highlands NYM etc but for the majority nowt but wind and rain.Without some sort of blocking in place to our north any PM flow will be transient and high pressure will build again across mainland Europe as depicted by 06z GFS.

Still,beggars cant be choosers Posted Image

So long as it doesn't build from the Azores..Long live the turbo charged jet I say Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

I will be surprised if the met office update today doesn't mention the word snow in the 6-15 day outlook, they didn't yesterday but they might today depending on a lot of other factors, such as mogreps.

 

Your spot on frosty the word snow is there

 

UK Outlook for Sunday 22 Dec 2013 to Tuesday 31 Dec 2013:

 

It is likely to remain very unsettled through the Christmas period, with frequent spells of strong winds and rainfall. This will be interspersed with some brighter, showery weather at times. Severe gale force winds are possible, most likely in the north and west, although nowhere looks to be immune. Rain is also likely to be heavy at times, especially in the west, which will lead to a risk of some flooding. Temperatures are most likely to be near or above normal for December at first, but then trending a little colder, more especially later, when there looks to be an increasing risk of some snow in the north and on hills, whilst night frosts may become more common.

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Your spot on frosty the word snow is there

 

UK Outlook for Sunday 22 Dec 2013 to Tuesday 31 Dec 2013:

 

It is likely to remain very unsettled through the Christmas period, with frequent spells of strong winds and rainfall. This will be interspersed with some brighter, showery weather at times. Severe gale force winds are possible, most likely in the north and west, although nowhere looks to be immune. Rain is also likely to be heavy at times, especially in the west, which will lead to a risk of some flooding. Temperatures are most likely to be near or above normal for December at first, but then trending a little colder, more especially later, when there looks to be an increasing risk of some snow in the north and on hills, whilst night frosts may become more common.

snow in the north and on hills,whatever does that mean>

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