Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Sky Full]

I am very hesitant to make any predictions in the company of so many far more experienced posters but the models are showing such interesting developments I cant help but try and interpret them, and we all have to start somewhere, dont we?   Christmas week looks full of the promise for change to colder conditions but my money's on the first week of January before most of lowland UK sees any snow.  There - I've said it; now I have to wait for the egg to hit the fizzog (not a meteorological term, that).  

 

Quite stressful, this model watching. Must have another coffee now....

[johnholmes]

I am very hesitant to make any predictions in the company of so many far more experienced posters but the models are showing such interesting developments I cant help but try and interpret them, and we all have to start somewhere, dont we?   Christmas week looks full of the promise for change to colder conditions but my money's on the first week of January before most of lowland UK sees any snow.  There - I've said it; now I have to wait for the egg to hit the fizzog (not a meteorological term, that).  

 

Quite stressful, this model watching. Must have another coffee now....

 

 

welcome to Net Wx, never be afraid to give your viewpoint, show charts to back up your view if you can, but do get invloved

[swfc]

I am very hesitant to make any predictions in the company of so many far more experienced posters but the models are showing such interesting developments I cant help but try and interpret them, and we all have to start somewhere, dont we?   Christmas week looks full of the promise for change to colder conditions but my money's on the first week of January before most of lowland UK sees any snow.  There - I've said it; now I have to wait for the egg to hit the fizzog (not a meteorological term, that).  

 

Quite stressful, this model watching. Must have another coffee now....

Experienced or not its as good a call as anyone else.Imo if a change does come later in the month i cant see it being a dramatic one in regards to temps and weather type."If" the pv weakens which is showing in fi then a gradual cool down may occur and may indicate a move in the rite direction for something more wintry esp for the northern areas.With such a volatile situation developing small features may bring the odd suprise on high ground in the north but in generall even over the xmas period the 850s dont look low enough the further south you are.Interesting if nothing else and come january whoknows!!!

[shedhead]

We're still an eternity away from Christmas day in meteorological terms, but snow on the big day is a distinct possibility for Scotland, N.Ireland and northern England in such set ups and can't be ruled out for areas further south - one to keep an eye on I think and the Bartlett fest promised by many is looking almost certain not to occur.

 

Think it's also worth considering the fact at this range GFS will not have modelled any spoiler shortwaves, so such a clean chart as this is unlikely 12 days hence. 

[Frosty.]

Ho Ho Ho..Merry Christmas from the Gfs 00z op run

[fergieweather]

So all in all a typical wintry and potentially stormy period of weather is to come when the day to day forecasts from the output will change markedly run to run within a pattern that is likely to change little.

That's certainly how latest EC32 takes things forward into New Year. The mobile/cyclonic train looks weaker after first week Jan; by then temp anomalies effectively average. Perhaps tentative signs of pattern change around then (with weakening LP anomaly to N/NW of UK) but no blocked signal in any ENS clusters until then. Anyway... we shall watch with interest.

[shedhead]

That's certainly how latest EC32 takes things forward into New Year. The mobile/cyclonic train looks weaker after first week Jan; by then temp anomalies effectively average. Perhaps tentative signs of pattern change around then (with weakening LP anomaly to N/NW of UK) but no blocked signal in any ENS clusters until then. Anyway... we shall watch with interest.

By this I assume you suggest the temp anomaly for the remainder of Dec is above average then Ian?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Lots of neartime forecasting required over coming week or two with some pep ups of winds and rain totals, general westerly flow but lots of sub-lows/ troughs likely to appear in such a turbulent pattern. Interesting re ECM 32, I think a pattern change is still likely to 'manifest' around backend of Xmas period, with change in Jan.

 

BFTP

[fergieweather]

By this I assume you suggest the temp anomaly for the remainder of Dec is above average then Ian?

Indeed and conspicuously so over Scandinavia / NE Europe. But null bias for us develops into first fortnight Jan. ENS plumes for e.g. Reading continue with majority members keeping 850 temps above circa -5C (most closer to zero) through to end of run (12 Jan). However CFS paints differing story into same timeframe... just to maintain the dichotomy!

[shedhead]

Indeed and conspicuously so over Scandinavia / NE Europe. But null bias for us develops into first fortnight Jan. ENS plumes for e.g. Reading continue with majority members keeping 850 temps above circa -5C (most closer to zero) through to end of run (12 Jan). However CFS paints differing story into same timeframe... just to maintain the dichotomy!

Thanks Ian....yes commented yesterday on the anomalous Scandi warmth and also noticed that re CFS, but doesn't it have a habit of throwing a spanner in the general works..

[fergieweather]

Thanks Ian....yes commented yesterday on the anomalous Scandi warmth and also noticed that re CFS, but doesn't it have a habit of throwing a spanner in the general works..

Yes, CFS isn't ever cited in UKMO analyses. The EC32 pattern retains a westerly flow even by 2nd week Jan, albeit waning. However, the 500mb pattern remains effectively zonal even by then; a fair assumption is that it'll take some major shifting to alter a pattern that resembles much of what we saw in winters pre-07/8.

[TSNWK]

Yes, CFS isn't ever cited in UKMO analyses. The EC32 pattern retains a westerly flow even by 2nd week Jan, albeit waning. However, the 500mb pattern remains effectively zonal even by then; a fair assumption is that it'll take some major shifting to alter a pattern that resembles much of what we saw in winters pre-07/8.

Thanks as always for your input Fergie, its is always good to hear your thoughts. On a postive note for coldies the EC32 is prone to mood swings like all the models once you get beyond approx Day 10, otherwise we may as well all pack up from Christmas and New Year now

[terrier]

Thank you for the updates Ian. Think it's really going to be a tough winter to see anything substantial for coldies. As you say we're still under westerly pattern even out as far as 2nd week in jan. Although waning at that point. But will admit not feeling too positive regarding our chances this winter. But on a positive it will make a certain long range forecaster look very stupid.

[shedhead]

Yes, CFS isn't ever cited in UKMO analyses. The EC32 pattern retains a westerly flow even by 2nd week Jan, albeit waning. However, the 500mb pattern remains effectively zonal even by then; a fair assumption is that it'll take some major shifting to alter a pattern that resembles much of what we saw in winters pre-07/8.

Indeed, as has also be previously said this pattern once established can be very difficult to break and whether some like it or not, it (or slight variations on the general theme) has been responsible for pretty much writing off entire Winters in the past.  That is not to say it'll be the case this season of course, as ever time will tell, but to my mind there's currently a rather different feel overall to what we've seen since 08....at least for now.

Edited December 13, 2013 by shedhead

[adamgooner]

Looking at the current EC32 pattern coupled with a number of other key indicators you just get the feeling that this winter will be a real non affair from a coldies perspective.  Whilst HLB can develop at short notice in the weeks ahead I think the chances of this affecting the UK are minimal at best.  This winter just seems to have a different feel to it than the last few.... 

[Weather-history]

it'll take some major shifting to alter a pattern that resembles much of what we saw in winters pre-07/8.

You mean back to the standard Icelandic low, zonal flow? That is our normal winter weather pattern after all.

[TSNWK]

Indeed, as has also be previously said this pattern once establised can be very difficult to break and whether some like it or not, it (or slight variations on the general theme) has been responsible for pretty much writing off entire Winters in the past.  That is not to say it'll be the case this season of course, as ever time will tell, but to my mind there's currently a rather different feel overall to what we've seen since 08....at least for now.

Disagree if I may, the feel of this December is the same as last December and the same as January 2011. The former was followed by a cold 2nd half of Jan' Feb' and March, the later was preceeded by the famous December 2010 just two examples of the top of my head where I think we have seen a simarlar pattern to this December since 08Many thanks

[fergieweather]

You mean back to the standard Icelandic low, zonal flow? That is our normal winter weather pattern after all.

Quite so!

[Biggin]

Am I wrong in thinking the EC32 chops and changes like the wind or should I say "updates" and that it also forecast the HP to stay around for a lot longer that it did and as I have previously stated the last half of EC32 is likely to end up completely different to what it predicts for that period atm. One would be foolhardy to try to use that period to back up ones er "current predictions" and also use it as proof of the quality of such forecasts ??

[nick sussex]

Indeed, as has also be previously said this pattern once established can be very difficult to break and whether some like it or not, it (or slight variations on the general theme) has been responsible for pretty much writing off entire Winters in the past.  That is not to say it'll be the case this season of course, as ever time will tell, but to my mind there's currently a rather different feel overall to what we've seen since 08....at least for now.

Whats notable is just how even the GEFS can't find a single interesting solution even upto T384hrs!Theres obviously a very strong signal for the limpet PV to continue in its current position,the GFS 06hrs run does take the jet a little further south in its lower resolution with some lifting out of those low heights in northern Greenland but until this is shown in the higher resolution I'd be a bit dubious. Edited December 13, 2013 by nick sussex

[The Post-modern Winter]

Disagree if I may, the feel of this December is the same as last December and the same as January 2011. The former was followed by a cold 2nd half of Jan' Feb' and March, the later was preceeded by the famous December 2010 just two examples of the top of my head where I think we have seen a simarlar pattern to this December since 08Many thanks

Completely agree. Both times there were people stating that those months had a feel of pre 08 winters, often alluding to a return to IB's MW. There was complete despondency last year and the year before in the MT around the Christmas period. Exactly one month and three months later, almost to the date last year, I had 10 inches (January) and 30 inches of level snow on the ground (March). Edited December 13, 2013 by The Post-modern Winter

[shedhead]

Whats notable is just how even the GEFS can't find a single interesting solution even upto T384hrs!Theres obviously a very strong signal for the limpet PV to continue in its current position,the GFS 06hrs run does take the jet a little further south in its lower resolution with some lifting out of those low heights in northern Greenland but until this is shown in the higher resolution I'd be a bit dubious.

Very much so Nick, there is definately a feeling of deja vu developing for me at the moment, with the vortex currently looking very robust....almost with a 'come and ave a go if you think your ard enuff' look about it. Certainly not ready to chuck in the towel yet on my much colder 2nd half of Winter, but Ian's latest post combined with what I'm seeing is pushing me ever further towards Feb now being the best chance for some sustainable HLB.

[Iceni]

Ho Ho Ho..Merry Christmas from the Gfs 00z op run

 

Right over TEITS house. Some guys get all the luck! Hope you're well Dave.

 

Actually a cold post Christmas period suits me fine, trying to get all the shopping and presents when people are all over the road due to snow and in a complete panic before they get into their cars isn't ideal. If we were back in the 16th C Christmas Day would be on our 6th January anyway.

Edited December 13, 2013 by Iceni

[TSNWK]

6z gfs maintains the theme during Christmas week and beyond of something a lot more interesting for cold fans.. Just saying.. 2nd operational to say so.

Be nice if the ensembles offered a little more support for this option than the 00z set did

[snowmadchrisuk]

6z gfs maintains the theme during Christmas week and beyond of something a lot more interesting for cold fans.. Just saying.. 2nd operational to say so.

Be nice if the ensembles offered a little more support for this option than the 00z set did

 

Yes very Interesting FI with -10 850's and low to the SW . Not holding out to much hope on that though ....