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Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

 

Interesting 240 chart is this the start of some blocking from the east. early days hopefully a new trend http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

 hemispherically, its filled with interest. only problem is its a 10 day op chart and statistically its about 40% accurate heightwise. i will say that looking at todays ens runs, there have been hints of the trough digging south and pushing the ridge way north ahead of it. (be that in the atlantic or just to our east).
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

t240 shows something colder moving into the west

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Given its 10 days away the usual cautions apply everyone should know now how quickly things can change as last week proved

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: deep snow/warm sunshine
  • Location: suffolk

   

hemispherically, its filled with interest. only problem is its a 10 day op chart and statistically its about 40% accurate heightwise. i will say that looking at todays ens runs, there have been hints of the trough digging south and pushing the ridge way north ahead of it. (be that in the atlantic or just to our east).

I'm sure your right and it won't work out like it shows BA but that is the best op run for a few days so thought it worth a comment! Got a sneaky feeling this zonal stuff isn't going to dominate for to long now the sun has calmed down! controversial I know but I think it does have a fairly close connection with the jet stream. Here's hoping. give it a couple of weeks anywayPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

 

Just to clear something up re the strat and warming, last years event saw a quick response in terms of the patterns across Europe, the lead time of approx. 3 weeks isn't set in stone. There is research to suggest that the initial state of the AO at warming effects the trop response, so an AO in neutral or positive state is likely to  see a bigger response which is quite logical , in a sense if you have a strongish PV at the time then the explosion caused by the SSW is likely to cause more damage or lets say bigger changes, if the AO is in negative state at the time not such a big response. Tonights ECM at 240hrs causes me to drop my horror rating to 7.5/10! if this verifies of course, the reason for my renewed optimism or desperate strawclutching is because of events to the ne! Angle of the jet changes slightly as pressure is put on the PV from the ne, the first step out of this zonal muck is to get pressure dropping towards central Europe, for coldies start praying that the ECM has the right trend here!

Agree ECM at day 10 should not really warrent more than a passing curiositybut when the charts are as bad as they are for cold its the only straw we have.Big,big if the t240 chart verified then it could be the start of a big patternchange and if we got really silly we could say we might only be a week of soaway from a beasterly with the energy over Iceland digging southeast,the mainportion of the vortex taking up home to the west of greenland over Hudson's bayand heights building north from the UK meeting up with the heights to the northeast over russia. Simples lol. Edited by cooling climate
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z perturbations show a significant increase in unsettled solutions compared to the 00z-06z (it's more like 50/50 now) this is reflected by the 12z mean... so hopefully this is a signal that the nothing weather this week will be shunted away to the east by next week and we can look forward to a much more unsettled outlook with a chance of cold incursions, one thing's for sure, the current pattern will be despised by many on here who are looking for our first wintry outbreak following the shambles just gone. I think we could be in for a cold, unsettled and potentially stormy pattern beyond the next 10-15 days onwards which takes us almost to christmas, a really boring spell this week for many areas but perhaps turning more unsettled from the west by the weekend or early next week, here's hoping for an increasing chance of a white christmas.Posted Image

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

As other posters have pointed out some realy cold air being injected into north Atlantic fairly soon .Looks like a chunk of it his trying to escape .tonights ECM is already bringing low pressure ever closer to the uk and if tonights run can be followed by more like this we May get lucky regards some wintry potential .GFS also throwing up some very disturbed weather in outlook .but we must not take things for granted as the above events i have quoted are out in the further outlook .But im sure that there are some happy posters tonight ,so we will put the NUKES on stand down and hope the Dice as our number on it .Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Just a quickie, I think we are seeing signs of the Jetstream rippling with LPs and secondary spawning LPs develop quite far south in the Atlantic.  It will help to wane the HP to our SE which will IMO hold to our East and may edge further north as we go later into December. UK  NW/SE split generally but as we progress through December most parts getting affected by LPs swinging in but always further N and W the more impact.

Don't be surprised if a ridge in the Atlantic becomes more amplified than anticipated, but it will be transitory if it does. Am I writing December off for decent/prolonged cold?  Yes I am and I did so in my monthly outlook, nothing has changed.....yes it has...it looks more certain now. However, its not going to remain benign throughout.  Its all about whether systems can sink further south over UK, that block to the East will likely keep them swinging NE.....

Back now to family time, see you in a week.

 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

 Agree ECM at day 10 should not really warrent more than a passing curiositybut when the charts are as bad as they are for cold its the only straw we have.Big,big if the t240 chart verified then it could be the start of a big patternchange and if we got really silly we could say we might only be a week of soaway from a beasterly with the energy over Iceland digging southeast,the mainportion of the vortex taking up home to the west of greenland over Hudson's bayand heights building north from the UK meeting up with the heights to the northeast over russia. Simples lol.

At this point in time CC, I'd be happy with a bit of PM air just to replenish the ski resorts here, there was lots of snow towards the last week of November and then its been sunny since, still great conditions now but some of the recent outputs looked hideous with zero sign of precip and higher freezing levels.

 

I agree normally I wouldn't discuss too much  synoptics shown that far ahead but its last chance saloon to save Xmas, theres nothing worse IMO than crappy mild sw'erlies over the festive period, even sunshine and frosts is okay but certainly not zonal mild mush!

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Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

Fair enough, thought it might become a bit more unsettled looking at the models this morning. Still IMO unsettled is much better than the benign stuff currently.

 

Not if you are currently knee deep in Suffolk mud, it's not.

Edited by Iceni
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

It looks like more unsettled weather will spread in beyond the coming weekend bring an end to the rather quiet spell we are currently having (with the exception of the extraordinary storm surge event of course). The one saving grace is man areas especially in England and some parts of Wales have seem some decent sunny spells which look set to continue until Friday when the winds shift from a continental south/south easterly to a more south westerly direction. I for one enjoyed the bright and rather pleasant weather and look forward to potentially scraping ice off the car for the first time tomorrow morning Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Agree ECM at day 10 should not really warrent more than a passing curiositybut when the charts are as bad as they are for cold its the only straw we have.Big,big if the t240 chart verified then it could be the start of a big patternchange and if we got really silly we could say we might only be a week of soaway from a beasterly with the energy over Iceland digging southeast,the mainportion of the vortex taking up home to the west of greenland over Hudson's bayand heights building north from the UK meeting up with the heights to the northeast over russia. Simples lol.

Some top posts in hear tonight, although that is really wishful thinking at this stage , but that would tie in quite nicely with Ed's winter forecast regards to our cold coming via scandi high pressure , if we can get the jet to dive south , along with a scandi ridge then it will open the door to sliders coming across the uk !
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

What do we think would follow the ECM 240hr chart? Wouldn't the PV eventually slip east and north to its default position? Might be good for high ground in Scotland but little elsewhere IMO

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I like tonight's Ecm 12z op run, it picks up the baton from the 00z and runs with it, taking us into a more unsettled phase, the transition of which is next weekend with cold westerly winds on the way next week, most of the uk is under 528 dam by T+240 with 522 dam not far to the west / nw...NICEPosted Image 

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

For me, the ECM output @ +240 is far better for POTENTIAL longterm cold (albeit there would be many hurdles thereafter to still, err, hurdle) than a more straightforward Northerly toppler(s) outcome, which (IF there were to be a cold setup at Xmas) would be easier to foresee occuring than any other cold scenario.

 

With this ECM route, yes it would likely be a slower burner but if (BIG BIG 'if') this is the start of of a new trend, we could expect some better looking charts popping up for the Xmas -New Year period. A very wet and windy period would be part of the transition though I would imagine.

 

So do we go for the ECM with probably a smaller % chance of it actually leading to anything but with a potentially greater % payback if it does or... stick to hoping we get a full on zonal, possibly later on leading to 2 day toppler setup? The ECM every time for me.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Two 12z ECM's in a row have showed a North-Westerly at day 10, if they verify the forum would go into meltdown after finally getting out of this pattern.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Two 12z ECM's in a row have showed a North-Westerly at day 10, if they verify the forum would go into meltdown after finally getting out of this pattern.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

I think we  can see the volatility between outputs of the ECM, the first one is pants and the second one promising. The shape of the PV is a good indicator of potential, round blob no chance of cold in its current location, elongated aligned more nw/se, we have a chance.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

What do we think would follow the ECM 240hr chart? Wouldn't the PV eventually slip east and north to its default position? Might be good for high ground in Scotland but little elsewhere IMO

Anything will be better than this weeks bilge Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

What do we think would follow the ECM 240hr chart? Wouldn't the PV eventually slip east and north to its default position? Might be good for high ground in Scotland but little elsewhere IMO

Models Will change no need to worry.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Both ecm and gfs  go for a mobile Atlantic at T+240 with some stormy weather on offer from time to time, but with some colder inclusions too. A very positive NAO on the cards tonight with NO serious cold between now and then with lows to the North  and highs to the south, Default Winter weather, although things can change very quickly!!!! Even in this setup . cold fronts can produce National snow from the NorthWest  as it did in the year 2000 with a widespread snowcover from this....Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Some top posts in hear tonight, although that is really wishful thinking at this stage , but that would tie in quite nicely with Ed's winter forecast regards to our cold coming via scandi high pressure , if we can get the jet to dive south , along with a scandi ridge then it will open the door to sliders coming across the uk !

 

And perhaps RJS's forecast for the potential of the main Winter cold to arrive on our shores early to mid January?

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