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Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Very realistic post. I think with the situation in the stratosphere unlikely to improve much this month we can write off the first half of winter off!

 

Karyo

Maybe a tad pessimistic karyo, but there's no getting way from the fact that prospects for cold weather dominance look far, far worst than the prospects for mild weather dominance. I still think we're looking at a winter of 2 distinct halves here, with the cold most of us crave far more likely to arrive via some solid HLB post mid Jan.  Until then anything even remotely wintry should be considered a Brucie Bonus imho.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Maybe a tad pessimistic karyo, but there's no getting way from the fact that prospects for cold weather dominance look far, far worst than the prospects for mild weather dominance. I still think we're looking at a winter of 2 distinct halves here, with the cold most of us crave far more likely to arrive via some solid HLB post mid Jan.  Until then anything even remotely wintry should be considered a Brucie Bonus imho.

Yes, we can only hope that the 2nd half will be much better - it can only be better! Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Very realistic post. I think with the situation in the stratosphere unlikely to improve much this month we can write off the first half of winter off!

 

Karyo

Thanks, yes the stratosphere isn't looking great , but sometimes there are other variables that can modify the strat signal. At the moment we can say the NH pattern is against any decent cold but equally we sometimes see a favourable strat still not deliver. I'd not write things off till mid January, chaos theory is always there lurking!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There are several GEFS 06z perturbations showing the fueled up atlantic breaking through by the end of next weekend, and some others which are partially (½) successful, beyond T+168 hours, the ensembles favour the euro high rebuilding it's empire but really, both options are on the table with a chance of the euro block becoming stronger or the atlantic to bulldoze it's way through and significantly lower heights across mainland europe beyond the next 7-10 days..how stubborn will the euro block be?...how fired up will the atlantic become?...we will soon find out what happens when the immovable object (limpet euro high) meets the irresistible force (turbo charged atlantic).Posted Image

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Very realistic post. I think with the situation in the stratosphere unlikely to improve much this month we can write off the first half of winter off!

 

Karyo

 

A bit early to say that, however the above post is more likely to be accurate than a certain forecast by a Mr Madden.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

I went through the CFS 9 month to cheer me up.

 

Posted Image Expecting mega charts it was clear that Jan and Feb are awful with a strong vortex and either HP or zonal (later mostly).

 

Posted Image March was when the vortex broke up and there are some wintry charts with good HLB; and early April wasn't bad either: 

 

T2244 Posted Imagepost-14819-0-50925500-1386514660_thumb.p

 

T2760: Posted Image post-14819-0-46942000-1386514771_thumb.p

 

Posted Image Something to look forward to...

 

 

 

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I went through the CFS 9 month to cheer me up.

 

Posted Image Expecting mega charts it was clear that Jan and Feb are awful with a strong vortex and either HP or zonal (later mostly).

 

Posted Image March was when the vortex broke up and there are some wintry charts with good HLB; and early April wasn't bad either: 

 

T2244 Posted ImagePosted Imagecfsnh-2-2244.png

 

T2760: Posted Image Posted Imagecfsnh-0-2760.png

 

Posted Image Something to look forward to...

 

I think we should invent a new term for long term CFS charts, perhaps TFI, Total Fantasy Island.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

UK Outlook for Monday 23 Dec 2013 to Monday 6 Jan 2014:

Remaining rather unsettled, especially towards the north and northwest of the UK, with the best of any drier and brighter conditions towards the south and southeast. However, the incursion of more changeable conditions across southern and eastern parts is possible. Temperatures probably staying around or just below normal across the UK generally, although it could turn milder than average across the northwest. There is, however, a low risk of colder conditions affecting southern areas with an increased risk of frost and fog.

Updated: 1135 on Sun 8 Dec 2013  Met

 

The latest UK Met update, no doubt based around the LR ECM. Sort of ties in with most of our musings.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

I'm close to giving up; not on winter, which is only 8 days old, but instead on the hope that people will stop pretending that they know what's going to happen in a month's time.

 

I know what's going to happen in a month's time though. Posted Image It will only be January the 8th Posted Image , anyway on to more pressing issues the first of the dismal model suites are about to run. Keep an eye on Eastern seaboard activity by the end of the working week, this is where some sort of change is consistently being shown to occur. I think it is after such a timeframe that the Atlantic will start to ramp up and maybe bring something more active, albeit a generally average to slightly milder trend at least at first, more especially across Northern parts of the UK.

 

Eyes down and here's hoping for something more inspiring. Posted Image

 

Here's our starting point, note the Jet positioning right over the North Pole suggestive of a surface feature effecting that part of the globe, could this not have ramifications in the near-term?

 

 

post-7183-0-32846700-1386517356_thumb.pn

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

The fact some of the model runs over the last day or two don't show high pressure stuck in exactly the same place right from start to finish, kind of gives me hope there are signals of change being picked up. What the change to will be and when that is I have no idea... however what I will say is that I certainly don't understand the logic behind some posts today, basically saying we could be locked in this for 2 weeks, 5 weeks, 2 months, the whole winter etc...

 

FI model output is just as unreliable whether it is showing milder or colder solutions, even if we are favored milder weather due to our location. Unless somebody has some statistics to prove otherwise??

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

UK Outlook for Monday 23 Dec 2013 to Monday 6 Jan 2014:

Remaining rather unsettled, especially towards the north and northwest of the UK, with the best of any drier and brighter conditions towards the south and southeast. However, the incursion of more changeable conditions across southern and eastern parts is possible. Temperatures probably staying around or just below normal across the UK generally, although it could turn milder than average across the northwest. There is, however, a low risk of colder conditions affecting southern areas with an increased risk of frost and fog.

Updated: 1135 on Sun 8 Dec 2013  Met

 

The latest UK Met update, no doubt based around the LR ECM. Sort of ties in with most of our musings.

 

 

A very curious call on temperatures given that position of HP to the SE, unless they are seeing the HP in a position to bring a Continental influence. I would suggest that it will be much milder than average, probably in all areas and of course wettest in the NW.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The lack of comments on the GFS 12z is of no surprise given that high pressure is pretty much dominating for the vast majority of us only Scotland looks prone to high rainfall totals over the next few weeks

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Okay here is an idea for someone before the ECM comes out this evening.

 

post-7292-0-63228400-1386521039_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-62570500-1386521040_thumb.jp

 

In all seriousness, dull as dishwater output on the model runs, each to their own for weather preference, but it doesn't get much more lifeless than this !! 

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Further to my post from earlier and from yesterday, here is the possible game changing-surface feature again, this time at t+129 hours which is somewhere near where FI should sit right now within the various ensembles.

 

 

 

The question we have to ask ourselves is whether it will impact the UK in a favourable way, i.e. where will its exit point be once its finished visiting the UK by this time next week.

 

post-7183-0-43710100-1386520190_thumb.pn

 

Some eighteen hours, the answer appears to be, not favourably i.e. it simply skirts the far NW outer isles and trundles past us on its way to eventually dissipate near the Eastern coastline of Greenland. The reason for this is the perceived strength of the European High.

 

post-7183-0-23034600-1386520660_thumb.pn

 

According to the GFS 12z this process is then repeated a further three times with each relatively deep surface feature simply effecting parts of Scotland. All in all, if we are to see something perk us all up further South it needs to start showing up in the NWP outputs in the t+129 to t+216 hours timeframe, otherwise this side of Christmas does potentially look uninspiring, it has to be said. By the end of next week, we should know where to place our bets on Chistmas week, at least from a broad perspective.

 

Can the upcoming ECM and UKMO models provide us with something more to talk about, if they are to do so, I advise us to concentrate the aforementioned timeframes.

 

Not a lot has changed in the reliable either, so I will reiterate from yesterday how I saw things developing over the coming week.

 

In the reliable, gloomy skies, milder trend by day, a distinct lack of penetrating frosts, slight at worst I guess. I imagine you might sneak a mid-fifties Fahrenheit max in the odd location. Not good for this coldie, but hopefully somethings up into Mid-December.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Good evening.. When can we come out of denial and accept that we are in a zonal Bartlett pattern, with no end in sight if today's models are on the money, this is more likely than not with the increased room for error you get in these patterns.

The Bartlett term is incorrectly used far too often, however if we cannot use it now? Then when?

Cheers and just think of the money we are saving on bills :)

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO 12z is out more unsettled for the far west driest the further east you are

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

GFS at the same time

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I wonder if this more disrupted PV will survive into the higher resolution output of the GFS. If that does verify then at least a small bit of better news for coldies, although we don't see anything wintry showing up in the lower resolution its crucial that the PV at least doesn't just sit uniformly as one blob over Greenland.

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Good evening.. When can we come out of denial and accept that we are in a zonal Bartlett pattern, with no end in sight if today's models are on the money, this is more likely than not with the increased room for error you get in these patterns.

The Bartlett term is incorrectly used far too often, however if we cannot use it now? Then when?

Cheers and just think of the money we are saving on bills Posted Image

 

When are the models ever 'on the money' in FI, just because they are showing mild conditions does not mean they've got any more chance of verifying than if they were showing cold. The Bartlett term is incorrectly used far to often, which is evidenced yet again here.

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

Good evening.. When can we come out of denial and accept that we are in a zonal Bartlett pattern, with no end in sight if today's models are on the money, this is more likely than not with the increased room for error you get in these patterns.

The Bartlett term is incorrectly used far too often, however if we cannot use it now? Then when?

Cheers and just think of the money we are saving on bills Posted Image

Hi could you please post a chart showing this bartlett setup please.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Hi could you please post a chart showing this bartlett setup please.

Hello. Sorry I'm not sure how you do that. However we have had the high limping around Central Europe for at least the last couple of weeks, so I guess that can be viewed by running through the archives. Then we have this evenings runs to flip through. Also by definition you need more than one chart to show a Bartlett, so best go through the archives and this evenings runs.Cheers.
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The fact some of the model runs over the last day or two don't show high pressure stuck in exactly the same place right from start to finish, kind of gives me hope there are signals of change being picked up. What the change to will be and when that is I have no idea... however what I will say is that I certainly don't understand the logic behind some posts today, basically saying we could be locked in this for 2 weeks, 5 weeks, 2 months, the whole winter etc...

 

FI model output is just as unreliable whether it is showing milder or colder solutions, even if we are favored milder weather due to our location. Unless somebody has some statistics to prove otherwise??

 

 

Hi

 

This is of course in a fluid situation but UK weather patterns of the last few years have been relatively stable with periods of certain weather synoptics. In my opinion we are in one of those holding patterns currently. We have a MLB that is extremely resilient, possibly Bartlettesque. When the Pacific Ridge migrates east next week it pushes the trough towards the UK, with that zonal flow. The models are now sharpening up on the strength of that MLB and are forecasting that the energy will go over the top somewhere around the Scottish Borders. Hence we keep HP in charge further south. The ex-Pacific Ridge then reinforces the Euro/Russian Block.

 

As of 18 December this block is encompassing nearly 50% of our latitude:

 

14th post-14819-0-31655300-1386522435_thumb.p 16thpost-14819-0-66163300-1386522444_thumb.p 18th post-14819-0-63504200-1386522456_thumb.p

 

You can see it strengthen in those frames. This appears to be the main background signal to our medium term weather. By T384...

 

24th post-14819-0-97566600-1386522676_thumb.p  ...it is unmoved.

 

Thats my thoughts. With no help from the strat, HP looks the call, just its relative position to be determined. 

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

So basically you don't know what a bartlett is.

Enlighten me then please. I believe we are, if we take the last couple of weeks and current model forecasts into account, its worth serious debate at the very least in my view.My original post ( the bits you choose not to highlight ) invited debate on why we cannot call our current setup a Bartlett, can you do that please if you have time.Cheers.
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