Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Gael_Force]

because mild and zonal is our default weather pattern, and a 1050 greenland high and a beasterly isn't so its understandable if the latter synopitcs show up people are cautious

 

Mild and zonal has become our default through recent climatology - it is not set in stone nor is it guaranteed if the scientists are right about low solar activity changing circulation patterns in Europe to a more frequent incidence of northerly or easterly.

 

People may just need to accept that, at cycle peaks as now, there is a break from cold and look forward to the next month or year - I very much doubt we are back to the bad old days - much to look forward to when the cycle starts the decline from now on.

[bobbydog]

does it need lightening  ? its just the weather and a load of algorithms. i do worry when i see comparisons with '63, '47 etc. some less experienced readers may well infer what isnt actually there.

 

whilst a more mobile period seems to be inevitable, naefs for london has mean slp above 1025mb for pretty well the entire next fortnight so not sure how mobile it will be in southern england although as you head n, the odds drop bigtime. (though note glasgow around 1020mb for two thirds of the period). 

 

well, apparently it does!

 

i know we can't really go back and say "that pattern matched x, y or z date so it will be the same". the point is, particular synoptics do not guarantee any particular outcome. this winter could turn out to be unimpressive but equally, apparently 'poor' synoptics can change very quickly. whatever the models show, what the actual weather decides to do is the real deciding factor.

[legritter]

Just taking the models on face value ,Not alot happening up till 168 Hrs .then i  see the potential of some pretty deep lows winding themselves up and moving N/EAST in the north atlantic and at  this stage some pretty cold air in the mix to the north of these lows .It wouldnt take much especially if high pressure over europe moves away at a quicker rate than is currently shown .so there is a fair possibility that IF these lows track further east with time we could be in a favourable position to pull in some deep cold air .so everything still to play for and plenty of time on our side from of course a coldies perspective .the biggest stumbling block of course in our search for real cold is our position in the northern hemisphere .,but our Island as been visited by extremes millions of times in the past ,we just have to be patient , Will the GFS give us some cheer .

[Purga]

Dreadful ENS

May become average at the end. Zonal hee, hee

[Captain Shortwave]

In the end it's quite easy to see how week upon week of milder than average weather can develop from where we are. Could be wet and mild, dry and mild, dry and chilly for some or more changeable overall (varying weather types from a westerly flow), but essentially the background pattern is the same with low heights to the north west and high pressure to the south east of the UK. It's pretty stable and prone to be self sustaining, many poor winters of the past saw this.

But and it's a big but, the key to changing this will be upstream, a renewed surge of higher heights from the Pacific (common theme over the past few months), could be enough to amplify the pattern either by displacing the polar vortex eastwards and building a north Atlantic ridge delivering colder/fresher weather, or it could allow a deeper trough to develop in the Atlantic allowing heights to build northwards from the Euro high giving us winds from the south east or even a full blooded easterly.

Just need to keep watching the strat thread and looking for long rangers and ensembles like the GFS to see if we begin to see another Pacific ridge building.

Edited December 7, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Gaz1985]

If this does turn out to be a mild Winter then so be it, it's not the end of the world. The UK is quite a way North but that doesn't always guarantee cold and snow - we're still one of the top 3 or 4 mildest countries in Europe in Winter - this reverses in the Summer and we're one of the coolest, being far North can help cold in Winter but because of the big body of water to our west our predominant weather year round no matter where you live in this island is mild. Nothing will drastically change that as long as we are positioned on the fringe of Europe.

 

Anyway the 12z Manchester ens look uninspiring for cold/snow prospects in the lead up to Christmas but the chance of more meaningful rain mid month onwards.

 

[Eskimo]

"If this does turn out to be a mild Winter then so be it, it's not the end of the world."

It's the 7th of December...

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

If this does turn out to be a mild Winter then so be it, it's not the end of the world. The UK is quite a way North but that doesn't always guarantee cold and snow - we're still one of the top 3 or 4 mildest countries in Europe in Winter - this reverses in the Summer and we're one of the coolest, being far North can help cold in Winter but because of the big body of water to our west our predominant weather year round no matter where you live in this island is mild. Nothing will drastically change that as long as we are positioned on the fringe of Europe.

 

Anyway the 12z Manchester ens look uninspiring for cold/snow prospects in the lead up to Christmas but the chance of more meaningful rain mid month onwards.

 

I agree Gaz it doesnt look good at the moment but who knows what the charts will look like in 2/3 weeks time its like deal or no deal with 4 reds and 4 blues it can go either way it could even be a winter of two halfs which would please most

[Cal]

Its not astonishing at all to suggest that we could be in the same pattern in 5 weeks; the pattern we are entering can take an awful lot of shifting and with the QBO, MJO, forecasted jet pattern all supportive of maintaining this status quo, you can see why such a mild January is being anticipated by some. You can't compare this outlook with other patterns and say 'ah well it is FI and it might change'. This set-up has a big margin for error in terms of synoptic pressure placement and it is clear where we are headed.

 

 

 

 

 

It could be both Ian, do we realistically know what is going to happen with the pattern in 5 weeks? Apart from the statistical/numerical guess of the QBO, MJO, ENSO,  STRAT, NAO, AO, which may give us a rough idea, our island is so small in numerical output terms, odd shift here and there and the weather pattern becomes totally different to what is predicted, unfortunately some grasp upon the the current projected output as near gospel and decide to throw their weight behind an outburst of wind up comments, if your going to state what is coming in 5 weeks ahead at least give a link as to why?

 

NW/SE Split for the next couple of week looks the likely synoptic output, drier to the SE, wetter and milder to the NW.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120712/ECH1-120.GIF

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120712/ECH1-192.GIF

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120712/ECH1-240.GIF

 

 

 

 

Edited December 7, 2013 by Cal

[Snowman.]

More unsettled run so far heights aren't as high in the SE with rain pushing in likely from the NW.

 

Heights extend further into the pole compared to last run.

[Skyraker]

ECM 216 240 are text book zonal Bartlett. Simples.

 

 

No, they are not.

[Snowman.]

May clip northern scotland but unlikely.

 

[Gael_Force]

More unsettled run so far heights aren't as high in the SE with rain pushing in likely from the NW.

 

Heights extend further into the pole compared to last run.

 

There's a perfect example of why we shouldn't be calling a week ahead, never mind definitive statements on months or seasons.

Two days ago it was high pressure as far as the runs went out to. I don't care what anybody says about default, the weather is never as predictable as that, particularly so in the last few years,

[fergieweather]

There's a perfect example of why we shouldn't be calling a week ahead, never mind definitive statements on months or seasons.Two days ago it was high pressure as far as the runs went out to. I don't care what anybody says about default, the weather is never as predictable as that, particularly so in the last few years,

Indeed. Take the situation from midweek on, for example. Model variance we are seeing by just a few degrees longitude makes all manner of difference in the broader phasing between the cyclonic developments to west running up versus amplification / HP to east. Consequently the extent of frontal progression from west into UK by Thurs-Sat remains very uncertain; in turn, so does the longevity of chilled BL conditions to SE fed from the continent. Whilst somewhere such as Moray Firth could be at 13-14C by that stage, somewhere in Sussex might be struggling to 5-6C (especially if the more backed low-level flow decouples as likely, with attendant in-situ fog or fog/stratus fed across from France... the drier feed into Weds for example should offer a sunnier regime but in turn exacerbate potential fog issues). So, tricky forecast detail even for the next 6 days, let alone what confronts us beyond that.

[bobbydog]

i've never experienced 'default' weather......

[Great Plum]

Great Plum's straw clutch of the morning:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I'll take the yellow or orange please... And the mean drops below average on the 20th...

-5 air across the country the weekend before Christmas:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3362.png

[Polar Maritime]

GFS is better this morning maybe widespread snow by the 20th, even for the South ? Look N/ N/W..

 

Edited December 8, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[legritter]

Looking like a possible Atlantic attack in further outlook ,but a lot depends on how far south and east any low pressure areas travell .so something at this range to keep us interested ,and lets hope a more Mobile pattern becomes established which Could help out us coldies if colder air gets pulled south ,so not all doom and gloom and plenty for us to ponder about . 

[shedhead]

Fairly solid agreement this morning that the Atlantic will be back by next weekend, so after a largely dry, mild week it turns increasingly unsettled, with

wind and rain for all and temps well above the seasonal average.

 

Looking at FI there are hints that the pattern might sink a bit allowing at least some temporary colder incursions from the NW, but for now that remains a

long way off and is probably not worth building hopes up to highly over for now.

 

GFS

ECM

UKMO

Edited December 8, 2013 by shedhead

[Great Plum]

Shed,

Look at the GFS temperatures over the next few days - I know they are 'unreliable' but it's all we've got...

Tuesday: slightly above average away from the south west...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6617.png

Wednesday: average away from the south west and colder than average in the midlands north...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9017.png

Thursday: similar to Wednesday but a little milder along the south coast...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.png

Friday: average away from the west:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13817.png

Whilst it will be mildER, I think it's disingenuous to say that it is mild when outside of the south west, this is not forecast to be true...

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op run is very interesting, the week ahead looks generally fine with sunny spells and lighter winds than recently due to a large european anticyclone centred to the southeast of the BI and temperatures struggling at 6's and 7's celsius maxima for southern, central & eastern areas with a touch of frost overnight and some thick fog patches, only the northern and western extremities of the uk look rather milder during the first half of the week with a fresh / strong ssw'ly flow and outbreaks of rain, however, by the end of the week, the high is drifting further southeast and meanwhile, the atlantic is becoming very disturbed with vigorous depressions poised. By next weekend the dam bursts and low pressure floods in off the atlantic with spells of wet and windy weather, it takes until 15th dec for mild air to spread across most of england but it doesn't last long, further upstream looks more amplified with the jet digging further south with increasingly cold zonality with milder blips but the 00z shows a cold blast just before christmas with snow in places and widespread frosts, quite a wintry blast, then briefly milder before turning much colder in time for xmas day onwards with arctic air and snow showers flooding south...I would bank this but I think there is even better to come.

[shedhead]

Shed,Look at the GFS temperatures over the next few days - I know they are 'unreliable' but it's all we've got...Tuesday: slightly above average away from the south west...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6617.pngWednesday: average away from the south west and colder than average in the midlands north...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9017.pngThursday: similar to Wednesday but a little milder along the south coast...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.pngFriday: average away from the west:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13817.pngWhilst it will be mildER, I think it's disingenuous to say that it is mild when outside of the south west, this is not forecast to be true...

Take your point Great Plumb, but I'll be surprised to see temps as low as GFS are suggesting by midweek. Both ECM and UKMO have a less continental flow source by Thurs, so whilst some parts of England and Wales may not be mild as such, most of us will be imo, at least from a geographical standpoint.

Edited December 8, 2013 by shedhead

[tinybill]

don't  tell the express or the coldies!!  looking at  the pub run we  might be getting a white Xmas!!

[chris55]

ukmo 144 perhaps with a glimmer of something with more potential. Better vertical waa to the west with a better positioned flow. Possibility of high pressure inflation much further north?

Edited December 8, 2013 by chris55

[Great Plum]

Take your point Great Plumb, but I'll be surprised to see temps as low as GFS are suggesting by midweek. Both ECM and UKMO have a less continental flow source by Thurs, so whilst some parts of England and Wales may not be mild as such, most of us will be imo, at least from a geographial standpoint.

Fair enough Shed... As an aside, the met office app suggests that the temps for the next 5 days are:Reigate: 10, 9, 8, 7, 7Thetford: 9, 9, 8, 7, 7Christchurch: 11, 10, 10, 9, 10Buxton: 8, 8, 7, 7, 6