Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[shedhead]

GFS 12z has all of the UK above average till the 15th

 

Anomaly

 

 

Expected temperatures

 

Indeed Gavin, mild it's going to be for most of us, no amount of tears, tantrums and wishful thinking is going to change that fact. The 12 runs see ECM somewhat keener to maintain the more settled conditions through next weekend, but GFS brings the Atlantic by Friday. Into the following week both the big 2 are now singing from the unsettled hymnsheet, with ECM going for some particularly vigorous LP systems running NE'wards close to Scotland, meanwhile FI on GFS remains a mixed but essentially mild bag. 

 

I see nothing in this evenings outputs to suggest anything in the way of cold, either pre Xmas or perhaps even across the holiday period itself, so in the absence of that I'll just be hoping we find ourselves in a dry, settled interlude come the big day itself.

Edited December 7, 2013 by shedhead

[Mucka]

As far as I can see - and, whether we like it or not - we have a spell of zonal weather to contend with...Will it last forever? I doubt it! 

 

It isn't zonal really though is it?

Here are GFS 12z ensembles and don't paint a zonal signal out to mid month with high pressure predominantly in charge.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=277&y=123

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=277&y=123&run=12&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1

 

Thereafter there could be a slow change to more unsettled conditions but by no means certain.

Edited December 7, 2013 by Mucka

[Methuselah]

It isn't zonal really though is it?

Here are GFS 12z ensembles and don't paint a zonal signal out to mid month with high pressure predominantly in charge.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=277&y=123

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=277&y=123&run=12&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1

 

Thereafter there could be a slow change to more unsettled conditions but by no means certain.

True...But, then, it's hardly what we'd call 'exciting' either?

[Newberryone]

I'm off on one again....

expect by tues for ecm and gfs inparticular to throw up some unbelieveable violent lp solutions.

First hints on the latter frames of the ECM this eve.

I'm most definitely with you 100% on this one Richie in the hope that the Atlantic will finally gain the upper hand on this intolerable Euro high which has plagued the overall weather pattern now for what seems a lifetime.

If we can't have cold then a raging Atlantic is more than a substitute, for me anyhow.

I admit systems may as pointed out already by another post take a track between Scotland and Iceland but at least it looks a hell of a lot more promising than the stalemate situation we're in right now.

 

Bring  It  On

[Gibby]

Good evening folks. Here is the report on the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday December 7th 2013.

 

All models continue to show few changes in the general synopses over and around the British isles. In general Low pressure will lie well to the West and NW while High pressure dominates over much of Europe. As a result the weather will remain fairly benign with in general a lot of cloud and fairly dry weather with rain and drizzle on occasions across the North and West of Britain. Equally in Southern and Eastern areas things may become rather misty and a little colder next week as winds back more to the SE for a time with some fog patches.

 

GFS then brings an increase of wind from the SW late next week with more changeable weather developing steadily with rain at times and some drier and brighter periods. With winds never far from a SW direction things will remain largely on the mild side of average though it may become rather breezier at times later in the period.

 

UKMO closes it's run with High pressure over SE Europe with a stronger SW flow developing over the UK. as a result it will stay quite mild and often cloudy and there could be some rain developing over most Northern and Western areas by this time next week.

 

GEM also shows an increase of wind across the UK from a SW direction next weekend. There would also be a series of troughs close to NW Britain at times giving rise to quite a bit of rain over the hills in mild weather conditions. There would be little if any rain in the SE apart from a day or two ahead of High pressure building back North from the South across Southern areas at the end of the run.

 

NAVGEM is mild mild mild all the way with a Southerly flow over the UK all the way and with less frontal incursion from this model then things would remain largely dry. Things in the South and SE could be a little less mild than elsewhere but it would hardly be cold considering the time of year.

 

ECM tonight shows the fairly mundane spell of weather persisting over the next week with just variations of wind direction and cloud amounts determining any differences in the weather felt on the surface. as a result temperatures could fluctuate down for a while in the week to come across the South before rising for all later at the expense of a marked increase of wind to gales in the NW and the increased risk of rainfall extending slowly SE across many Northern and Western areas by the start of the week after next.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a sustained dormant spell of weather with mild upper air conditions overall though maybe a little chilly at the surface over the South for a time. The chances of rain in the South are pretty non existent over the coming week and even thereafter no great amounts of rain are shown.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow well to the NW of Britain over the coming week. there are tentative signs of it slipping further SE on it's SW to NE axis through week 2 though this is outside the reliable time frame at the moment.

 

In Summary there remains little change to report in the weather conditions to be expected over the coming two weeks to that shown on previous recent output. As a result we can expect largely mild weather with a SSW flow of winds and though a fair amount of dry weather is to be shared the North and West can look forward to some wet and windy weather at times too especially later. It still remains hard to see where any meaningful change in the general synoptic pattern is likely to occur other than a mild SW flow with rain making greater ingress of Low pressure into the North and West of Britain at least.

[Snowman.]

I'm off on one again....expect by tues for ecm and gfs inparticular to throw up some unbelieveable violent lp solutions.First hints on the latter frames of the ECM this eve.

 

 

I mentioned this yesterday as well things are looking rather plain at the moment but I wouldn't expect that to last long as if the jet can provide enough power to send that through the edge of the block into the northern half of the UK thing could get bad very quickly.

[winterof79]

The basis of what Ian is saying here is made on the assumption that the Aleutian High is not a semi permanant feature this winter, and has been a front loaded one that has kept the pattern more amplified before the background +AO signal takes over from mid December onwards.

 

However as has been documented, there are indeed reasonable grounds for thinking that the upcoming unfavourable Pacific pattern will be transient. The forecasters, that Ian allude to, do not stress any confidence at all that any raging flat +AO pattern will continue through the heart of the winter and expect, overall, the amplified Pacific pattern to hold sway with just transient interruptions.

 

I think it is right to point out what can go wrong, much as I posted on the other thread today, but that should only be within the context of a balanced overview of the pro's and con's of any given situation and the most likely way the pattern will proceed

 

Very well put Tamara,

I just wish Ian would respond in this manner to avoid the backlash on this thread.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

WOW, some nasty lows lining up at 240hrs ECM. They look like they could be miles worse than St Jude if they come off...

[Earth Wind and Snow]

From a coldies perspective the models are dire again today - however if the models this time last week were to be believed, we should all be shivering in a bitterly cold northerly this weekend with severe frosts and in places snowfall - the models could look completely different again in a few days time. No need to panic 7 days in to winter.......... 

 

EWS 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

WOW, some nasty lows lining up at 240hrs ECM. They look like they could be miles worse than St Jude if they come off...

 

Hope they do not come off, advantage it's deep FI, I want it to stay settled and dry

[Frosty.]

There are some signs on the GEFS 12z perturbations of the possibility of cold weather in the immediate run up to christmas and even a few which flirt with something cold in the T+240 hours range, so I would say don't get sucked into thinking that a flat mild zonal pattern is a shoe in, it most certainly is not..I think we have a shout at a cold festive / new year period.

[MPG]

Indeed Gavin, mild it's going to be for most of us, no amount of tears, tantrums and wishful thinking is going to change that fact. The 12 runs see ECM somewhat keener to maintain the more settled conditions through next weekend, but GFS brings the Atlantic by Friday. Into the following week both the big 2 are now singing from the unsettled hymnsheet, with ECM going for some particularly vigorous LP systems running NE'wards close to Scotland, meanwhile FI on GFS remains a mixed but essentially mild bag. 

 

I see nothing in this evenings outputs to suggest anything in the way of cold, either pre Xmas or perhaps even across the holiday period itself, so in the absence of that I'll just be hoping we find ourselves in a dry, settled interlude come the big day itself.

Wow shed, once again sweeping statements. You may be right, but to suggest that in 5 weeks time we are in same pattern is astonishing. Please please please can you stop posting members supposed feelings, "tantrums, tears etc etc" its not needed. We all know your agenda and its very very boring.

[bobbydog]

 

 

 

ugh.... raging PV over greenland, azores high. can't really see a way out of that one.

 

you don't get much more of a positive NAO than that!

 

 

 

(check the date.....)

Edited December 7, 2013 by bobbydog

[Summer Sun]

Very little change from the ECM ensemble again tonight with south westerly winds dominating from Monday and lasting a long time

 

Monday

 

 

Tuesday 17th (t240)

 

 

Other than parts of Scotland there will be very little rain around the only potential problem for the rest of us fog

[bluearmy]

 

 

 

ugh.... raging PV over greenland, azores high. can't really see a way out of that one.

 

you don't get much more of a positive NAO than that!

 

 

 

(check the date.....)

 

didnt you see the 'arctic' high over scandinavia ?  not really eggs and eggs is it ?

Edited December 7, 2013 by bluearmy

[bobbydog]

didnt you see the 'arctic' high over scandinavia ?  not really eggs and eggs is it ?

 

'yes' and 'of course not'

 

sorry for trying to lighten the mood!

[Long haul to mild]

Looked at the forums for the first time today and I have to say it really annoys me the continual number of wind up posts that seem to permeate this topic. I don't particularly mind what type of weather (I actually quite like dry and mild weather as it happens) we get but all these people claiming that it's going to be mild for the next eight weeks or whatever don't post ANYTHING to back it up and it is so frustrating for novices like me.

We are now being told to believe charts in FI because they show mild. Why? Back it up please? Why is FI different because it is mild? I want to learn more about model analysis but there are number of people with nothing better to do than wind up others that prevent me from doing so with their contradictory and inflammatory statements.

Sorry to those who do post sensibly; you know who you are.

[Tony27]

because mild and zonal is our default weather pattern, and a 1050 greenland high and a beasterly isn't so its understandable if the latter synopitcs show up people are cautious

Edited December 7, 2013 by Tony27

[Ian Brown]

Wow shed, once again sweeping statements. You may be right, but to suggest that in 5 weeks time we are in same pattern is astonishing. Please please please can you stop posting members supposed feelings, "tantrums, tears etc etc" its not needed. We all know your agenda and its very very boring.

 

Its not astonishing at all to suggest that we could be in the same pattern in 5 weeks; the pattern we are entering can take an awful lot of shifting and with the QBO, MJO, forecasted jet pattern all supportive of maintaining this status quo, you can see why such a mild January is being anticipated by some. You can't compare this outlook with other patterns and say 'ah well it is FI and it might change'. This set-up has a big margin for error in terms of synoptic pressure placement and it is clear where we are headed.

[NorthernRab]

because mild and zonal is our default weather pattern, and a 1050 greenland high and a beasterly isn't so its understandable if the latter synopitcs show up people are cautious

 

Flawed logic though, just because many months end in the suffix "ember" (September, December, October, November), doesn't mean that the month the follows June i.e. July, is any more likely to end in "ember". 

 

You have to look at the data in front of you not so much the data behind you. 

[Long haul to mild]

because mild and zonal is our default weather pattern, and a 1050 greenland high and a beasterly isn't so its understandable if the latter synopitcs show up people are cautious

I see your point but FI is FI and should be treated as such regardless of the type of weather in my view. Some people on here have been calling for a return to zonal for weeks now and it still hasn't happened yet but no doubt when it does finally take place, they will be on here telling us they were right all along. What foresight.

[swilliam]

because mild and zonal is our default weather pattern, and a 1050 greenland high and a beasterly isn't so its understandable if the latter synopitcs show up people are cautious

If mild was the default pattern it would not be mild. Average is the default pattern (whatever that is).

[Frosty.]

I just wish we could all get along without all the bickering and wind ups, we are all weather enthusiasts. Let's just report what the models show and back up our thoughts with evidence. :-)

[Methuselah]

I just wish we could all get along without all the bickering and wind ups, we are all weather enthusiasts. Let's just report what the models show and back up our thoughts with evidence. :-)

Indeed Frosty. The weather will do what it will do; it doesn't give poo for what you, me or anyone-else might hope...It just 'does'!

[bluearmy]

'yes' and 'of course not'

 

sorry for trying to lighten the mood!

 

does it need lightening  ? its just the weather and a load of algorithms. i do worry when i see comparisons with '63, '47 etc. some less experienced readers may well infer what isnt actually there.

 

whilst a more mobile period seems to be inevitable, naefs for london has mean slp above 1025mb for pretty well the entire next fortnight so not sure how mobile it will be in southern england although as you head n, the odds drop bigtime. (though note glasgow around 1020mb for two thirds of the period).