Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[blizzard81]

I know this is going against model guidance at the moment but I personally don't think things are as certain as most believe.

I think the week leading up to Xmas will be far more interesting than the models are showing at the moment. I am talking from a

coldies perspective of course. The reason I say this is because of the arctic high which is showing it's hand in the more or less

reliable time frame of the next 4 or 5 days. I have been led to believe that modelling is at it's weakest in the arctic and surely

this weakness must increase in the longer range, ie, 5 days plus. The arctic high is shown to be quite robust in the next few days

and ridging in our direction but once we get to 6 - 7 days out, it retreats. Maybe the weakness in the models in this area is leading us

up the wrong path and in actual fact as we near the time, the arctic high will carry on ridging in our direction. This would lead us to a totally

different (more favourable for coldies) synoptic set up as we approach Xmas. That's my straw clutch anyway!!

Edited December 6, 2013 by blizzard81

[pip22]

Euro High tries to extend to greenland at 336 hours in FI on GFS.

 

 

 

But the low pressure wins back Greenland at 360 hrs.

 

 

 

End of the run shows Bartlett high moving east crossing Germany, bringing in a south-easterly flow. We could see some night frosts and some fog in there, especially in central, southern areas. Still not good enough for us coldies though.

Edited December 6, 2013 by pip22

[Gael_Force]

I guess it's time to wave goodbye to my prediction...

 

 

I would have put it up if it was looking good so only fair I put it up now it doesn't look so good!

But not just going back a few weeks, but I think going back months, into the depths of summer, there's not really been a period where, even with model agreement for a 10 day outlook, things didn't end up flipping.  It's been fairly unusual model watching in the past few months in that regard, and as poor as the current outlook may seem, i remain convinced we will see a real tast of winter before this month is out and perhaps a great deal more in the following two months

 

 

Don't give up just yet! GFS maybe sniffing changes further down the line. Little hints in the noon ensembles and now on the latest op - what's that saying - "the darkest hour is just before dawn"

 

This looks to me, like a very dark hour.

 

[Richie V]

Ice, that image, ooh thats naughty. Would be even naughtier if the hp was 700 or so milrs further south

Grim.

 

Daffs will be popping in the Scillies at this rate.

 

h500slp.png

 

At least the CH will be off.

 

Ian

[Purga]

OK folks, here is High pressure over the pole and a split vortex

Don't be put off by the fact that it is deep FI, the 18z pub run and highly unlikely to verify or be there in the morning.

I don't want to be a complete doom mongerer after all!

Sweet dreams....

[Cheshire Freeze]

OK folks, here is High pressure over the pole and a split vortex

Don't be put off by the fact that it is deep FI, the 18z pub run and highly unlikely to verify or be there in the morning.

I don't want to be a complete doom mongerer after all!

Sweet dreams....

 

Yep. Word has it Steve Murr has trekked up to the N Pole and is building the biggest bonfire known to man in a vain attempt to heat up that pesky stratosphere. The predicted result is shown above

[Roger J Smith]

This has been my view throughout, but if you want to be optimistic, then focus on January 1-5 for change to take place and then the week or two weeks after that for colder weather to become more dominant. From my perspective, this colder period has potential to be fairly productive, but I don't think it would dig in for the entire winter. In the shorter term, I would be surprised if this current pattern shows much tendency to break down before 28-30 Dec. Although a slight regional variation is likely, the pattern looks so mild that the cooler southeast may be just a weak variation based on a few colder nights. I don't see much chance of a strong inversion developing given that the near continent will be snow-free, Holland could catch some of Germany's chill perhaps.

 

Anyway, if you had to have one month very mild out of the three main winter months, it might as well be December when people have a lot of travel and shopping plans. At least it's good for the economy.

 

Bottom line, month from now, much more to see.

[Tamara]

I guess it's time to wave goodbye to my prediction...

 

 

I would have put it up if it was looking good so only fair I put it up now it doesn't look so good!

But not just going back a few weeks, but I think going back months, into the depths of summer, there's not really been a period where, even with model agreement for a 10 day outlook, things didn't end up flipping.  It's been fairly unusual model watching in the past few months in that regard, and as poor as the current outlook may seem, i remain convinced we will see a real tast of winter before this month is out and perhaps a great deal more in the following two months

 

I wouldn't worry too much this early on - good for you for having an opinion which could still come right with two full months to go yet of the winter season - and some optimism is always a good thing to balance amongst the clinical realities  We can be made mugs of at any time, when it comes to the airstream crossroads meeting place that is the UK, with them all vying for our attention coming from all points of the compass

 

Maybe we should be flattered instead by all the attention we get from being such a unique and capricious global meteorological convergence traffic zone in this way?  

[blizzard81]

This has been my view throughout, but if you want to be optimistic, then focus on January 1-5 for change to take place and then the week or two weeks after that for colder weather to become more dominant. From my perspective, this colder period has potential to be fairly productive, but I don't think it would dig in for the entire winter. In the shorter term, I would be surprised if this current pattern shows much tendency to break down before 28-30 Dec. Although a slight regional variation is likely, the pattern looks so mild that the cooler southeast may be just a weak variation based on a few colder nights. I don't see much chance of a strong inversion developing given that the near continent will be snow-free, Holland could catch some of Germany's chill perhaps.

 

Anyway, if you had to have one month very mild out of the three main winter months, it might as well be December when people have a lot of travel and shopping plans. At least it's good for the economy.

 

Bottom line, month from now, much more to see.

Boooo!! Hope you are wrong (about the December bit anyway ) Judging by most of the model output tonight though, you are looking

in a very strong position right now. However, things can change fast and very dramatically!!

Edited December 6, 2013 by blizzard81

[Snowman.]

 

Wouldn't like to be in the Atlantic when this one goes through.

 

Lets hope that's modelled right and doesn't end up over Scotland.

[Snowman.]

15 please!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=6&code=15&mode=0&carte=1

[Weather Boy]

Although I like all the posts immediately above me, I must say (politely of course) that some of the posts on here are totally OTT. I'm not sure if it's the same people who call for snowmageddon for the rest of winter based on on one set of exciting runs who also over-react to the sort of runs we are seeing now by purporting to make predictions for weeks or even months.

How often have we seen one of our more experienced posters paste charts (both summer and winter) showing one extreme to another in a surprisingly short period of time? Surely anyone who lives in this country knows that the weather can change very fast and not always predictably. The met certainly know that.

Just two days ago the meto thought we were looking at cold weather medium term, but the models are now saying no to that as loudly as they can, forcing a rethink.

Whilst the models currently look bad with no background signals for colder weather, that could change tomorrow, so we have no idea what will happen beyond c. 10 days away. Only the GFS goes out further than that, and that's cannon fodder beyond 8 days out in low res.

Bit of perspective needed and no absurdly long range predictions based on what we are currently seeing please! Obviously that doesn't apply to LRF people produce, which I find interesting but hopefully aren't based on a couple days of model output. Be interested to see if roger pulls it off again

[Snowman.]

I know a certain few on here would take this...

 

[SW Saltire]

Well, it looks like dull, mundane and fairly mild will describe the weather for a good period of mid December. The north of the British Isles may see some rain but at least we will not see the usual soaking that occurs when we normally get mild weather in winter. Bad news for coldies but we have time on our side and the good news is for livestock, farmers and the festive period being less of a panic with deliveries not being interrupted. At least some of us have seen the first snow of the winter with a light dusting here at the moment  

[Snowman.]

Very angry looking block here.

 

[Gaz1985]

Very angry looking block here.

 

 

Quite literally "the eastern block" lol

[Snowman.]

Quite literally "the eastern block" lol

I don't think I've seen one that big...

[blizzard81]

I must admit it has been incredibly negative on this thread tonight. I remember the winter's of the 80's and the vast majority of the Decembers

were mild & mundane only to be followed by very cold periods in the following 2 or 3 months. For what it's worth, we are only 6 days in to Winter proper, cmon - perspective!!

Edited December 6, 2013 by blizzard81

[shedhead]

Well the evening runs are now complete and the 2 overriding signals remain dry and mild, but temps could still be close to average across some central and eastern parts of England. Quite why some continue to deny what is (and has been for some time) staring us right in the face still puzzles me, but like it or not we are entering Bartlett territory and those that have been here before know all to well that getting out of it can be a very longwinded process. By all means keep looking for +ives, some will come and go for sure across the coming days, but at the same time don't be completely in denial of where we are heading - the route is now very clearly defined, its just the details of our escape that are currently proving elusive...for now.

Edited December 6, 2013 by shedhead

[chubbyfan]

the high that is building to the south of uk could move..into a more favourable position to allow continental SE, E winds to come over uk..

 

lets face it, long range models are not all that reliable are they..so look forward to maximum -4c and big fluffy snowflakes.

 

*let us dream the undreamable dream.*   

[Snowman.]

Scatter is beginning to show which means something isn't up OP and Control are pretty much the same and keeping things neutral but things are scattering a bit.

 

Tomorrow could prove interesting...

 

 

Not sure what happened up there but whatever. 

 

Anyway found my FI candy.

 

Edited December 7, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[blizzard81]

Well the evening runs are now complete and the 2 overriding signals remain dry and mild, but temps could still be close to average across some central and eastern parts of England. Quite why some continue to deny what is (and has been for some time) staring us right in the face still puzzles me, but like it or not we are entering Bartlett territory and those that have been here before know all to well that getting out of it can be a very longwinded process. By all means keep looking for +ives, some will come and go for sure across the coming days, but at the same time don't be completely in denial of where we are heading - the route is now very clearly defined, its just the details of our escape that are currently proving elusive...for now.

 

Certainly not denial on my part. I have been here for many years - yes, mainly as a lurker but nonetheless wise in the knowledge never to take

the models predictions at face value - whether that be v cold or v mild. The result is almost invariably somewhere inbetween. Keep the faith.

[blizzard81]

Scatter is beginning to show which means something isn't up OP and Control are pretty much the same and keeping things neutral but things are scattering a bit.

 

Tomorrow could prove interesting...

 

 

Not sure what happened up there but whatever. 

 

Anyway found my FI candy.

 

Yes, scatter starts next weekend. This is certainly not resolved yet!!

[davehsug]

Well the evening runs are now complete and the 2 overriding signals remain dry and mild, but temps could still be close to average across some central and eastern parts of England. Quite why some continue to deny what is (and has been for some time) staring us right in the face still puzzles me, but like it or not we are entering Bartlett territory and those that have been here before know all to well that getting out of it can be a very longwinded process. By all means keep looking for +ives, some will come and go for sure across the coming days, but at the same time don't be completely in denial of where we are heading - the route is now very clearly defined, its just the details of our escape that are currently proving elusive...for now.

I'd say it's more of a Euro high than a Barty. Definitely preferable as they tend to bring something brighter. Seems a good few years since we've actually had one, so I suppose it's overdue.

[blizzard81]

What I find interesting about the last couple of sets of GFS ensembles is the fact that the precipitation in far out FI is greater

on the London ensembles than it is for Manchester &  Aberdeen. That does not tie in with a bartlettesque scenario!!