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Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

With the high pressure sticking to us for next couple of weeks I be concerning the potential water shortage. Posted Image  That is a bad thing for blocking highs.

 

You may have lower heating bills but you eventually have to pay higher water bills.

Edited by pip22
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I disagree as there a number of ways of getting a cold spell to these shore with the PV in it's usual place, of course 9/10 we do need it to play ball.

By usual place? If you mean limpeted to southern Greenland then I don't see a way of getting cold into the UK. What we're talking of here is  cold uppers not faux cold by way of an inversion. Show me a chart with PV in that location and cold uppers for the UK and I'll go to mass tomorrow at Lourdes!lol

 

An easterly can be attained even with a big foreboding PV if its aligned favourably and much further to the nw, PV blob to the ne fine but PV to the north incredibly difficult I'd say nigh on impossible.

 

It really comes down to what is perceived as usual PV positioning, IMO that's to the north near southern Greenland, and if that's the case then no I don't see it.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

Massive incursion of very mild air deep into Russia probably thawing much of th snowcover there

Posted Image

Very strong intact Vortex driving a vey stable mild pattern for the foreseeable future.

Posted Image

 

No cold for a long time.

Well purga that is a horrendous looking vortex!! Im not sure I've seen one that powerful just sitting there in completely the worst position possible for uk cold. What has happened to the much vaunted Aleutian high that was showing up so readily a week or so ago? I guess that was just a figment of the ECM imagination, that model has been poor this season so far, that pattern looks as flat as a witches ***Posted Image

Edited by Continental Climate
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

By usual place? If you mean limpeted to southern Greenland then I don't see a way of getting cold into the UK. What we're talking of here is  cold uppers not faux cold by way of an inversion. Show me a chart with PV in that location and cold uppers for the UK and I'll go to mass tomorrow at Lourdes!lol

 

An easterly can be attained even with a big foreboding PV if its aligned favourably and much further to the nw, PV blob to the ne fine but PV to the north incredibly difficult I'd say nigh on impossible.

 

It really comes down to what is perceived as usual PV positioning, IMO that's to the north near southern Greenland, and if that's the case then no I don't see it.

I remember January 84 was such a chart Nick, granted it only effected the Midlands Northwards but it brought about a two week cold spell with copious amounts of snow. Hopefully someone can confirm this with some charts from back then.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

CH, I'm in touch with a couple of guys who used to be on the Easternwx forums in the US. They are comparing with the PV strength with some of those late 80s/late 90s winters, potentially a record breaking +ve AO in January.

Quite a long way out to be calling that already. What is stopping the slightest unexpected movement of the jet and then altering the pattern massively in the long run? It is way way way too early to be calling anything in January, even from an experts point of view.
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I remember January 84 was such a chart Nick, granted it only effected the Midlands Northwards but it brought about a two week cold spell with copious amounts of snow. Hopefully someone can confirm this with some charts from back then.

If you take a look at Wetterzentrale, archives that gives you synoptic charts going back to the 19th century. I've had a quick look at the January 1984, the PV was pushed south by higher pressure out of the Arctic before edging away to the ne, the main chunk then relocated further towards Canada,initially the PV brought in a west/sw flow before being pushed south.

 

We did see a chunk of the PV pushed south I think in December 2010 that landed right over the UK but again high pressure over the pole and a negative AO. I think we might be talking about different things SI, I was more talking about the limpet PV position, you know the rounded blob over Greenland that just sits there .

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

In the end we had our one chance as the polar vortex transferred from Siberia to Canada to develop heights to the north east of the UK, it hasn't happened and the consequence of that is simple really. 

Unless something dramatic happens we will be waiting for things to turn in our favour, especially the strat which is well below average and feeding the polar vortex. Of course the GFS ensembles might suggest movement of the polar vortex in the near future to a more favourable position. Until then we will be settled with the most likely breakdown coming from a potential return to zonal rather than a more beneficial pattern change. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

If you take a look at Wetterzentrale, archives that gives you synoptic charts going back to the 19th century. I've had a quick look at the January 1984, the PV was pushed south by higher pressure out of the Arctic before edging away to the ne, the main chunk then relocated further towards Canada,initially the PV brought in a west/sw flow before being pushed south.

 

We did see a chunk of the PV pushed south I think in December 2010 that landed right over the UK but again high pressure over the pole and a negative AO. I think we might be talking about different things SI, I was more talking about the limpet PV position, you know the rounded blob over Greenland that just sits there .

Damn and blast, that's that theory busted then.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM ensemble shows very little change tonight once the high builds to our east it hardly budges

 

Tuesday

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

6 days later

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Going as far as the ensembles go from GFS the high dominates over a large part of Europe

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL

Good lord, tonights nh outputs are seriously flat. I really wanted something festive from the 15th onward. That is a serious fat PV. I'm definately not a true coldie at heart, i'm mr raging zonality im afraid and what I see tonight makes me VERY excited. Tonights charts have tickled the stormy winter of 1993 within me. For a chance of a repeat of this we just need that damn hp to sink a little further SE and the jet to drop south a little.

I'm sorry most of you don't feel this way but hey, were all different. Seriously, this is no wind up post, i've been waiting many years for this nh pattern. As with cold, I face the same perils of will it, won't it and all that.

Ric

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

we have now settled on our high being a sceuro block. some will say thats its bound to sink se into europe allowing a zonal flow across the uk. if so, thats currently conjecture. all the modelling i can see currently shows the block likely to keep a continental drift over the se of the uk. the nw half likely to be affected from time to time by a more pronounced sw flow bringing some rain and higher temps. at this stage its absolutely impossible to call surface conditions across those parts of the uk affected by the slack flow. we could be frosty by night and above av by day in weak dec sunshine. conversely we could be cool by day under slate grey skies whilst the nights could be frost free and murky.  im now wondering where the p/v is going during week 2. some hints that it might transfer its main centre back towards w siberia. if so, our scuero block cannot survive and will either have to sink or retrogress into the atlantic with the w-e  movement of the lw trough.

 

it does look a pretty tedious period of model watching approaching (thats normally the signal for 'fireworks'!). 

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

Good lord, tonights nh outputs are seriously flat. I really wanted something festive from the 15th onward. That is a serious fat PV. I'm definately not a true coldie at heart, i'm mr raging zonality im afraid and what I see tonight makes me VERY excited. Tonights charts have tickled the stormy winter of 1993 within me. For a chance of a repeat of this we just need that damn hp to sink a little further SE and the jet to drop south a little.I'm sorry most of you don't feel this way but hey, were all different. Seriously, this is no wind up post, i've been waiting many years for this nh pattern. As with cold, I face the same perils of will it, won't it and all that.Ric

Each to there own Richie...im a massive massive snow fan love the stuff...but i dont mind a good old stormy spell either...good luck to you on your quest for a storm or two aslong as i get some snow at some stage over the next 4 months i dont mind...at the moment i see nothing that can bring in cold to the uk but then a week ago all we cold see was a big northerly blast and snow for much of uk and look what happened to that so still all to play for just need to be patient thats all and not get so hung up on each and every run when it dont go the way you want it....

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Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham

I'm just always confused as to why milder runs are given more belief than if the runs were currently showing cold?

Many thanks Posted Image

Yep cold never gonna happen, mild is a cert, tho peoples opinion of what mild means on here is also up for grabs. Dont let the doom n gloom merchants Spoil  your enjoyment of this thread. they do it for a reason they get a kick out of it. bit sad but thats life. Will copy n paste this and pm it as dont think this post will be on here for long. Feel your pain :)

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Grim.

 

Daffs will be popping in the Scillies at this rate.

 

post-6879-0-57438000-1386366790_thumb.pn

 

At least the CH will be off.

 

Ian

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Very few places below average till mid month according to the GFS temperature charts tonight

 

Anomaly

 

Posted Image

 

Seasonal average

 

Posted Image

 

Expected temperatures

 

Posted Image

 

 

Must be gutting that one of those places is right over your housePosted Image

Anyway, not really much to add, a pretty poor pattern all in all and pretty high confidence of upper air temperatures too high for even high ground snow for the foreseeable (how far that is, of course, is open to discussion, as while Nick can only see up to maybe D10 at most Ian's staring a repeat of 88/89 down for the next two months).

Someone on our regional thread picked out this as the best chart of the entire output, which for Scotland at least is both true and extremely depressing from a cold POV:

Posted Image

In my view, up to D15 we have such poor teleconnections for sustained HLBs that we're reliant on either a UK/slight more northerly Sceuro high type setup or, for a slight chance of northern snow, a shift of the core of the heights from Europe to the Azores to shift the jet on a better, NW-SE, trajectory (which was effectively what brought us the stormy cold snap we've seen in the last few days). I think the former is more likely but the latter may be a possibility if we can get a bit of amplification upstream, as the above chart shows. Still, this is simply straw-clutching in the extreme!

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Hi guys, I never post on here as I'm still a huge novice but this is the 3rd winter that I've followed the forum.I just wanted to know why these mild outlooks (especially charts for 16 Dec, supposedly FI?!) are always taken as gospel and everyone is always pretty confident they'll definitely happen?Is it because statistically we're more likely to receive that type of weather or maybe it's because it takes a longer period for the PV to split?I'm just always confused as to why milder runs are given more belief than if the runs were currently showing cold?Many thanks :)

Three things for me on the current situation: firstly, the consistency of the charts in showing an enormous block over Europe, secondly, the shape of the run of the jet from the Atlantic towards northern scandinavia seems favourable to maintain the block, and thirdly, the margin for error in a mild set-up is far greater than if trying to get cold in a cold set-up. Wish it were not so! But the idea of 10 weeks uninterrupted mild is as credible as trying to forecast any other type of weather. Two weeks without cold seems a good bet but crazy to write off anything after that. After all, we had a great zonal pattern in November and that got busted out of the blue.
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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Good lord, tonights nh outputs are seriously flat. I really wanted something festive from the 15th onward. That is a serious fat PV. I'm definately not a true coldie at heart, i'm mr raging zonality im afraid and what I see tonight makes me VERY excited. Tonights charts have tickled the stormy winter of 1993 within me. For a chance of a repeat of this we just need that damn hp to sink a little further SE and the jet to drop south a little.

I'm sorry most of you don't feel this way but hey, were all different. Seriously, this is no wind up post, i've been waiting many years for this nh pattern. As with cold, I face the same perils of will it, won't it and all that.

Ric

 

 

More than a little... Posted Image

 

 

post-6879-0-52750300-1386367333_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick

Well purga that is a horrendous looking vortex!! Im not sure I've seen one that powerful just sitting there in completely the worst position possible for uk cold. What has happened to the much vaunted Aleutian high that was showing up so readily a week or so ago? I guess that was just a figment of the ECM imagination, that model has been poor this season so far, that pattern looks as flat as a witches ***Posted Image

It's just, well ... A bit odd. Not quite buying that, based only on years of hunch (and yes, I can read the charts). Scotland colder than Russia?! Nah ...
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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl

A crumb of comfort offered by the GFS in FI...the PV over Greenland has nearly split thanks to our pesky high migrating NW. Gone in the morning no doubt but who knows.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131206/18/336/h500slp.png

Edited by Grimsby Snow Lover
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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

I guess it's time to wave goodbye to my prediction... 

 

Timmytour on 20 November 2013 - 13:43, said:

I suppose there's no reason today to regard what the models are giving us for a week's time with any more conviction than, in hindsight, we could regard what they were telling us at the weekend for this coming weekend and beyond. The science has come a long way, but there's still no way of capturing every little element that can produce a substantial impact within the programming.I'm optimistic about an eventual prolonged spell. My feeling over the last few winters is that the models seem to press and probe at it when certain signals arrive and while those signals don't always deliver, in the end the pressure of them mounts up and we get there.Just a gut feel, but i think it likely that things will get colder (properly so!) around the 16th December and the first clear signs of this will arrive in the models in the first week of December

 

 

I would have put it up if it was looking good so only fair I put it up now it doesn't look so good!But not just going back a few weeks, but I think going back months, into the depths of summer, there's not really been a period where, even with model agreement for a 10 day outlook, things didn't end up flipping.  It's been fairly unusual model watching in the past few months in that regard, and as poor as the current outlook may seem, i remain convinced we will see a real tast of winter before this month is out and perhaps a great deal more in the following two months 

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