Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[MR EXTREMES]

yep I think im throwing the towel in don't like the look to the model outputs and really have a feeling about winter 2013/14

[Cheshire Freeze]

The Northern Hemisphere shows a different picture with a disrupted vortex and Heights pushing poleward on the otherside.

 

Maybe a Northerly down the line?

 

Things have been amplified on the Pacific side for weeks.....we need to see this now have some impact on the N Atlantic sector. We need to get pressure lowered over Europe- pressure seems to have been high there for quite a while now (bar the odd interruption).

[shedhead]

Im not sure what exactly 'zonal' is,to my mind the set up is about as zonal as you could get with a flat jet and strong PV over Greenland.

Maybe thats incorrect but to my mind the setup is pretty zonal.

Well it's always zonal somewhere HD, but I guess we refer to it as such when those conditions are directly affecting all parts of the UK to varying degrees.  As CC said earlier the current pattern does not mean an automatic return to more zonal conditions, but it's a bit like saying just because Swansea are 3-0 down to Man Utd at half time they can still win. 

[TSNWK]

What's the view of the UK 12z. Not pretty at 120 and 144 at first glance, I'm just wondering if there is a chink of light with that gap in the Vortex at 144?

Edited December 6, 2013 by TSNWK

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

That euro high is not just a nightmare for us in the UK.

Folks in the Alpine ski resorts must be having nightmares too.

GFS 12Z highlights perfectly what an awful pattern this can be,very enduring.

[Cheshire Freeze]

What's the view of the UK 12z. Not pretty at 120 and 144 at first glance, I'm just wondering if there is a chink of light with that gap in the Vortex at 144?

 

There is nothing to cheer about the 12z. Taking the run purely at face value (whilst making no assertions about its likelihood of coming to fruition), it is reminiscent of 88/89. That poor. I never advocate writing off chunks of time (as people have seen over the past couple of weeks) but the grim reality is that much of December is written off as poor for cold prospects should we end up in that unfortunate position. Pains me to say it as I love December cold and snow.

[TSNWK]

And at the end of high resolution. The gfs starts drifting the high Back towards Germany. It's the up and down Bartlett..

[starstream]

not technically Model related, but in March this year, it was hardly spring like weather was it? yet spring turned out pretty good overall just delayed a bit.

So although we all would love a cold and crisp Christmas period.....it doesn't mean that the weather switch won't flick over and deliver the goods.

Its only Dec 6th after all.

 

Cheer up coldies, it can and probably will change,

 

 

edited cos I forgot a line I was damn sure I had typed!

 

 

Edited December 6, 2013 by starstream

[Jason M]

Im not sure what exactly 'zonal' is,to my mind the set up is about as zonal as you could get with a flat jet and strong PV over Greenland.Maybe thats incorrect but to my mind the setup is pretty zonal.

I agree. Whilst IB is always singing the same tune, on this occasion he is correct IMHO. Its a terrible set up that we are stuck in. The zonal train is a bit further north than usual but that's about it. No two winters are the same but this set up has 1988 written all over it. To be clear I'm not suggesting that this pattern will persist all winter as that would be ridiculous. In addition 1988 was just as extreme as 1963 in its own way.I can see this set up lasting a minimum of three weeks though. I would not be surprised to see the new year being ushered in under the same pattern as it looks a robust and repeatable pattern to me. Its not certain that this will happen, but its odds on in my humble opinion. I cannot see how we will get HLB from the current set up. We have close to unanimous agreement across all models and ensembles as well as strong multi run consistency and Fergie seems to be saying the METO information also supports this over a 10-15 day period.Anyone looking to put a bet on a white Xmas should ensure they get very good odds IMHO.If the above doesn't prompt ECM to show the next ice age nothing will :-)

[Great Plum]

Desperation mode on...

We could get a northerly from this:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

Only 384 hours away!!!

[TSNWK]

And at the end of high resolution. The gfs starts drifting the high Back towards Germany. It's the up and down Bartlett..

and low res continues the high drifting around Europe tour taking us to 22nd December with no change. World Cup draw..

[Yozzer]

That euro high is not just a nightmare for us in the UK.

Folks in the Alpine ski resorts must be having nightmares too.

GFS 12Z highlights perfectly what an awful pattern this can be,very enduring.

Yes, I'm off to Gressoney in the Italian Alps over Xmas, and there really is very little chance of fresh snow before then. The only difference from the winters of late 80s and 90s when such a pattern as this was fairly common is that these days most resorts have decent snowmaking facilities. With cold temps at night the cannons will be cranking out the snow, so all is not lost. Still, I'm hoping that the euro high will drift northward and allow an undercut from the Balkans to the Alpine regions. That could happen quite unexpectedly.

[Gaz1985]

About as hideous as you can get in December really. Temps pushing mid teens in places to the lee of high ground. Grim.

 

 

 

A mouthwatering prospect for mildies - at least the heating won't be needed. Bartlett pressure here we come, looks a bit like Christmas 2011

 

[Purga]

What's the view of the UK 12z. Not pretty at 120 and 144 at first glance, I'm just wondering if there is a chink of light with that gap in the Vortex at 144?

Hopelessly mild

Sorry, I wish I could offer a bit of hope.

[PolarWarsaw]

Why are people so negative? Yeah, the outlooks poor. Oh well, it's 3 weeks until Christmas and January, February and March are always better for cold. It might not be snowy but it's not zonal, the actual weather is the real thing to be negative about. It's been dull for months and will continute to be for another fortnight or so. Put yourself to the start of summer - it's like people saying 'THE SUMMERS OVER' - 'THERE'S GOING TO BE NO WARM DAYS THIS SUMMER, NOT 1'  in late May. Farcical. Get a grip of yourselves. Winter's only just got it's head through the door (in seasonal terms) - it's here for another 3 months minimum. 

[Methuselah]

Please use the appropriate thread: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/page-3#entry2856685 

[CanadaAl]

Looks like uncle Barty might be visiting for christmas. Hopefully he might get be a better present this time round... 

[IDO]

Looking at a NH perspective this December will be remembered for extreme cold, except not in the UK. Look at current anomaly temps for the US:

Looking at GFS T384: ...still extreme cold, in the US.

I feel that the UK has missed the very wintry weather that the current synoptics are showing. This may be a repeating pattern with the Euro high the Yang to the Pacific Ridge, Yin. We cannot complain about this unusual meridional pattern in December, its just that we are in the completely wrong sector to benefit, if cold is what you are after.

Week 2 from JMA:

...no surprises there.

The trend for the HP centre is moving towards a more mild flow rather than previous days, where week 2 had suggested a more continental flow for some, so not even a crumb of comfort there.

[IDO]

More of the same from GEM, though the jet is further south, SW to NE UK split, so unsettled on the northern side:

Balmy days ahead:

GEFS mean at T240: OP:

Broadly similar to the op and GEM.

Good consistency.

[P-M]

To be fair the milder days being modelled are far better than dull freezing days with no snow and little ice - coming from a coldies perspective.   But the weather is as fickle as Katie Price and will do what it want's - just because something is modelled x amount of runs ahead doesn't mean it will definitely verify which is something we all need to bear in mind!

[cooling climate]

The strong vortex caused by the very cold mid stratosphere is ruling the

roast here. Until this changes and there is little signs of that at the

moment then there is little hope for cold weather and vertually no chance

of a cold pattern developing with a positive AO and NAO being the rule.

[Catacol]

Gloomy in here, isnt it?! Let's take a look at the models in a bit more depth.

 

My last post highlighted forecast warming in the mid strat over the USA around 12 December while also pointing to continued moderate warming around Europe trying to help pump up a Scandy high. The suggestion was that there might be height rises over Canada around 14/15 Dec and I had hoped this might encourage our high to be pulled NW. Note that the CFS forecast video that GAvinP put together yesterday showed exactly that scenario. 

 

So where are we? Note this afternoon's GFS on the 12th when wave 2 warming gets going. Heights over the US starting to build; but our own high has sagged - the warming over Europe was not sufficient to make a big dent in the vortex as many feared:

 

 

Run it forward to 15 December and you can clearly see the US warming pumping up heights over Canada and the vortex, as predicted, starting to be squeezed out of this sector. However no chance of the undercut that I had tentatively hoped might happen if our high had pushed north : instead vortex energy firing up over the top, helping to flatten the high.

 

 

 

This condemns us I'm afraid to a week or more of dull weather while this works its way through.

 

So where from here? Any signs of a change? This is the interesting chart once again - ongoing wave 2 activity at 10 days.

 

 

Moderate warming in the mid strat and signs of renewed warming higher up. Where is this warming located?

 

At 11 days range this GFS 10hPa chart shows it clearly - over Siberia

 

 

 

By the end of the GFS run the warming has been intense enough to push the vortex away from Siberia and instead the main strength at 10hPa lies in the Svalbard sector by 22 December.

 

 

Notice here how cold the temps are at the heart of the vortex at this altitude - still getting colder and therefore still powering up. We are now running a good bit below the long term mean:

 

 

 

So how will this impact on the troposphere? Unfortunately not good for winter cold for the UK. As our high struggles unsuccessfully to push north the warming over the US will force vortex energy over the top and flatten it further. We may very well be in a proper zonal setup by mid month or just after. From there heights will try to build in behind that energy, but just as the vortex starts to move east Siberian warming will try and force it back west, and on current data it will be pushed over towards Svalbard and Scandy. I can see Xmas week being mild but potentially stormy as low pressure tracks further south due to vortex repositioning into that area to our north.

 

The only saving grace might be height rises in the mid atlantic as we move past 15 December, and this may turn the air flow back to the NW and maybe a chance or two of a brief northerly - but otherwise not good as westerlies will dominate.

 

Too early to speculate any further, but if January is to see a turn around we are going to need to see a proper assault on the vortex because without it we are not likely to see sustained heights at high latitude. I am sticking to my view that the second half of winter will deliver something cold - timing for me is too complex to get right, but if you read RJS he is seeing it as 8 - 12 Jan and let's face it: he has an uncanny knack of getting the pattern right.

Edited December 6, 2013 by Catacol_Highlander

[Snowman.]

 

 

A bit more scatter but none the less the same.

[Ian Brown]

A mouthwatering prospect for mildies - at least the heating won't be needed. Bartlett pressure here we come, looks a bit like Christmas 2011

 

 

Yes, there are strong signs going forward of something very similar to 88/89. Certainly the US guys are anticipating a very flat pattern for January.

[Great Plum]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Straw clutching of the worst kind but at the end of the run, the op is definitely on the mild side of things and there's a few below average options...