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Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

i, for one, dont want a 'zonal reset'. distinct trop ridging anywhere in the NH will enable the strat vortex to continue taking a buffeting from wave activity. without this, i think a repeat of the mild zonal winters of decades past could be on the cards. as ever, be careful what you wish for if you want to see any deep cold this season.

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Except that's not really the case really according to the 2m temps of the ECM anyway. Manchester hitting double digits just once on Monday

I would take those or any other models predicted temps precisely as read fg, they're no more than a guideline. Overall we will be in a mild pattern next week as things currently stand, though clearly not everywhere and definately not as mild as it could (and eventually might) be.

Edited by shedhead
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Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.

Glad I didn't book any skiing in the alps over xmas, feel sorry for those folks. Hopefully the air stay pretty cold and preserves what they have...

 

Model freezing levels above 3000m in anticyclonic conditions doesn't look too good for them does it. There would be a strong subsidence inversion, with cold weather in the valleys, but once you're into the free air, it would be relatively warm. Could be challenging to sustain a widespread snowpack under those conditions.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham

I would take those or any other models predicted temps as read fg, they re no more than a guideline. Overall we will be in a mild pattern next week.

I would take the model output as a good guide rather than apply ones bias to it to make the outcome fit pre determined view.

I have taken two independent sources from actual models to come to a conclusion (this is the model output discussion thread after all). I could even apply the fact that any cloud break under a high pressure system at this time of year will allow night time temps to fall while any day time recover will be limited. 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I won't be on much folks as rushed to Swansea as my dad is critical condition on itu. Very westerly month ahead is more or less sewn up

I'll pop in in ten days or so

 

 

regards

 

 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Model freezing levels above 3000m in anticyclonic conditions doesn't look too good for them does it. There would be a strong subsidence inversion, with cold weather in the valleys, but once you're into the free air, it would be relatively warm. Could be challenging to sustain a widespread snowpack under those conditions.

Talking about that inversion that happens often here, I've known it to be +4 on the top of the Pic Du Midi at 2850m and below freezing down here at 350m! I did read though that there is a shallow layer of much colder air just above the snow pack which does help in clear conditions and helps to preserve the snow during the night.

 

At least the models aren't showing any warm rain which is the biggest scurge for ski resorts, there was a lot of snow last week but with the models suggesting dry conditions for the foreseeable its going to be difficult to keep the slopes in good condition.

 

Heres a link to the Pic Du Midi for anyone interested, theres an observatory at the top which helped with the NASA moon landings, you can also stay overnight and get a package which allows you to actually go into the observatory and use it, the cable car up there is certainly interesting!

 

http://www.bagn.obs-mip.fr/webcamV2/

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.

I did read though that there is a shallow layer of much colder air just above the snow pack which does help in clear conditions and helps to preserve the snow during the night.

 

 

Yeah I think there are all sorts of tricky criteria to consider with this. Free air temperature is the base, but the radiative near surface inversion above a snow pack is another offsetting factor. Also, there is the balance between what will help melt snow faster: sunshine or cloudy conditions? You'll get longwave radiation from cloud, whereas sunshine may not have a great impact due to the high albedo of snow.Not straightforward, but at least you can be fairly safe in betting that an increase in the snowpack is not likely......

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.

I won't be on much folks as rushed to Swansea as my dad is critical condition on itu. Very westerly month ahead is more or less sewn upI'll pop in in ten days or so regards  BFTP

Thinking of you and your family mate, best wishes
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Seriously though the rest of the month that followed that was distinctly zonal and unlike the forecast charts currently shown by the models.

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

GEM probably on the ball (pressure maybe a little high) in that pressure will remain high but east of the UK.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

Thanks Fergie. Interesting to note that despite being the minority solution that UKMO are not discounting it as a possible outcome.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

This high could easily move 500 miles or so North and then be stubborn to move, we are still not far away from a prolonged v cold spell, just needs a few tweaks. It is much better to be sunny and cold, than wet a windy anyway....especially for the flooded areas...

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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

Thanks Fergie. Interesting to note that despite being the minority solution that UKMO are not discounting it as a possible outcome.

 

It's must be very much a minority option though, everything would indicate a slow return to zonality from this synoptic position.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Unequivocally mild with a trend to 'average' at best.

 

Posted Image

Interestingly, and this doesn't happen often, the average surface temperatures could be lower than the 850hPa temps on some of those days in some areas.

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Interestingly, and this doesn't happen often, the average surface temperatures could be lower than the 850hPa temps on some of those days in some areas.

Could be close indeed

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

Hate to admit it, but Height rises to our east, doesn't shift anytime soon.  See you guys in two weeks.  Bah, only joking lol, but as BFTP said, its all SWerlie from next week. Could be that 's the case right up to xmas. Obviously, not going to right xmas off at this range but for the next week to two, the writing looks to be on the wall. 

 

On the bright side, the UK should be relatively dry for the next week or two.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Hate to admit it, but Height rises to our east, doesn't shift anytime soon.  See you guys in two weeks.  Bah, only joking lol, but as BFTP said, its all SWerlie from next week. Could be that 's the case right up to xmas. Obviously, not going to right xmas off at this range but for the next week to two, the writing looks to be on the wall. 

 

On the bright side, the UK should be relatively dry for the next week or two.

 

Aye its looking very dry alright especially in the south a few mm at best for some till December 22nd significantly below average

 

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

without hope there would be no point in looking at the models or posting, I have hope with 11 weeks of winter ahead.

I look at them without hope I am just objective!

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

 

It's must be very much a minority option though, everything would indicate a slow return to zonality from this synoptic position.

Correct. Or at least anticyclonic SW/S, if not cyclonic or unbiased. As much as 2-3 days ago, almost all the flow diagnostic solutions into Xmas period wanted this outcome. Anything else would be a major turnaround at this juncture, but nothing can be wholly ruled out. Nonetheless, EC32 today supports the flow diagnostics run earlier this week, and has no whiff of anything cold (in sense of deeper easterly incursion) as far as the run extends. Seeing as it's the best tool we have to hand at those ranges, we have to run with what we have available... for now. In shorter-term, as previously mentioned, the boundary layer issues remain the real and more pressing forecast imponderable, with potential (arguably quite strongly) for fog/freezing fog travel issues in the south next week.
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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

Lets not forget peeps, the Euro HP can still bring plenty of surface cold. The longer it sits there, the more cold air will filter into Europe and eventually the UK.  This will cool the air coming from the south. And with LP off to our west, it will bring colder polar maritime air.  

 

After a few days, the air should become quite cool with a mix of polar maritime and cold continental air. Surface temperatures could get quite low, especially at night.  

 

So, I would put my money on some frosts building up, especially in the East. LP could make some inroads to the west from time to time keeping things a touch milder.  

 

In a nutshell, at least it doesn't look like the full blown hairdryer treatment is on the cards for Xmas.

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