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Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

correction, that was the flippin 18zPosted Image

 

There must be some cold somewhere!! :)

 

This month is actually reminding me a little of last year, some brief cold at the start and then milder.

 

I had a thunderstorm on Christmas day! Probably the only thing rarer than snow on the big day :)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

 

 

This month is actually reminding me a little of last year, some brief cold at the start and then milder.

 

 

As long as it gets colder after it gets milderPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

I tell you what this is an ever evolving situation and I really do see potential all you are seeing is fi charts.

I'm not discounting anything give it a few more days were know for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Shoot me down if i'm wrong but the Ecm 00z @ T+192 hours is potentially interesting as high pressure is migrating northeastwards between day 7-8, small steps in the semi reliable timeframe? OMG it's the 12z..think i've lost it completelyPosted Image

post-4783-0-94301000-1386318282_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Shoot me down if i'm wrong but the Ecm 00z @ T+192 hours is potentially interesting as high pressure is migrating northeastwards between day 7-8, small steps in the semi reliable timeframe?

Yes and that why I'm saying we need a few more days.It is very possible frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z would bring benign anticyclonic conditions with frost and fog for the southeastern half of the uk for most of the time, unsettled and milder across more northwestern parts of the uk with stronger ssw'ly or sw'ly winds with persistent lower heights further west / nw.

post-4783-0-32286500-1386318889_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-72377600-1386318899_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-97877000-1386318909_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-81111600-1386318921_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

Hi everyone. Here is this morning's look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday December 6th 2013.

 

HEADLINE: No Cold weather in sight.

 

All models show a High pressure area drifting ESE towards Northern France. This provides a Westerly flow to bring milder Atlantic air across the UK on a Westerly breeze with a warm front on the leading edge carrying a band of rain and drizzle across the UK, preceded by a little snow on Northern high ground. This moist West flow then remains in place for the next two to three days with some troughs giving further mostly light rain at times in the NW while many other areas stay largely cloudy, relatively mild and dry.

 

GFS then shows High pressure inching a little further East next week allowing winds to back South or SE and this will have the effect of keeping Northern areas mild and cloudy with some drizzle over hills and coasts while Southern areas become somewhat less mild at times as drier continental air feeds across the channel at times, especially to the SE with some night fog and a touch of frost possible but some daytime sunshine too. However, despite this it can hardly be described as cold and milder air will filter back across at times, especially later in the run when the North and West turn rather windier with rain at times as troughs to the North and West move closer in on the mild SW wind.

 

UKMO today shows High pressure retreating somewhat further away East next week with Low pressure to the West strengthening the Southerly flow for a time with troughs just to the West possibly carrying some rain North up the Western side of the UK then NE across Scotland. Many Eastern parts should stay dry and possibly bright with the mildest conditions likely in the West and North.

 

GEM this morning keeps a very mild South or SW flow going across the UK for all of next week and weekend as High pressure stubbornly remains near Germany feeding mild or at times potentially very mild uppers up across the UK from the South. While not always very mild at the surface normal value temperatures would be achieved for all in the Southerly breeze and the potential remains for some very mild conditions to develop if sufficient breeze mixes out the air to the lee of high ground.

 

NAVGEM too keeps quite a brisk breeze from the South or SW and with this mixing of the air all areas should be on the mild side, very much so at times and though dry for the best part of next week fronts would move into Northern and Western areas by next weekend with rain at times.

 

ECM today also shows High pressure maintained to the East or ESE and therefore the pattern will be the same as the other outputs in that a period of benign and quiescent weather is maintained with a lot of cloud and mild conditions on a light Southerly drift. It may feel a little chillier in the East and South at times as a drift from the SE moves across the channel with some chillier nights giving rise to the possibility of fog patches but overall the pattern remains locked solid at Day 10 with any rain only likely in the far NW.

 

The GFS Ensembles today show rock solid support for two weeks of mild and generally settled conditions around High pressure slow moving over Europe. The only trend later maybe the ingress of Atlantic fronts moving deeper into the North and West of the UK late in the run on stronger SW winds but even then the South is shown to avoid much of any rain.

 

The Jet Stream remains locked in a pattern that will keep the UK relatively mild for the foreseeable future. It is shown to blow strongly in a NE orientation across the Atlantic and on towards Northern Scandinavia preventing any chance of significant ridging North of the European High and therefore not only keeping the UK mild but much of Western and Northern Europe too.

 

In Summary this morning this morning's synopses reminds me of the mild Winter's of early in the millenium years when much of the time we were bathed in similar synoptics to that of today. Now I'm not saying that this will be the course of this Winter but it certainly will be for the next couple of weeks. We have the Jet Stream to blame which is orientated totally wrongly for any chance of cold for the UK for some considerable time to come. It is also too strong at the moment in it's relentless progression NE over the Atlantic towards Iceland and Northern Scandinavia. This prevents any chance of any meaningful ridging North of the European High towards Northern Europe and therefore prevents anything moving West on it's Southern flank to usher in change. With this strong Jet to the NW it also maintains High pressure in situ so though not technically a blocked situation there is little room for change in synoptics quickly. So as it stands for the time being we have to try and predict local small scale changes day to day on whether cloud breaks enable temperatures to rise to very mild levels or whether days of anticyclonic gloom, mist or fog prevail over Eastern and Southern parts at times keeping things at least a little cooler. Rain will be a rare commodity overall restricted to the North and West on occasions.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

One positive thing I think is that on the 0Z ECM ENS, the high pressure anomaly on day 10 is more to our northeast than to our southeast/east or directly over us.

 

Posted Image

Yep that's a colder continental feed, small steps.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Taking the models at face value, not recommended, there is no sign of wintry weather for non-mountain dwellers for the foreseeable. The GEFS clusterings offer HP or varying degrees of zonality (N/S split the main):

post-14819-0-30734900-1386319032_thumb.p

No blocking signal there, taking us to the weekend before Christmas.

I was hoping the CFS monthly for Jan would show a blocking pattern, suggesting late December may be transitional into something more wintry. Run after run it has been showing variants on this theme:

post-14819-0-71706000-1386319192_thumb.p

A westerly flow with HP parked to our east and the UK at the end of the zonal train.

JMA and EC32 come out today and I fear that these will reflect the current output. Of course the strat could kickstart a colder synoptic but there is not high confidence the current activity will be a boom for our region; the US looks like benefiting from latest Rossby Wave activity that pushes us into Phase 6 of the MJO:

post-14819-0-68078400-1386319605_thumb.g

Many LR forecasts were highlighting the latter parts of the season for cold, so current output is not a shocker, and benign anticyclonic weather may be boring, but for many its better than some alternatives.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

Yep that's a colder continental feed, small steps.

Or from another angle.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

Not very inspiring to me but we can forever hope.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Or from another angle.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

Not very inspiring to me but we can forever hope.

without hope there would be no point in looking at the models or posting, I have hope with 11 weeks of winter ahead.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The Dutch ens for the ECM 0z show there is still a split with regard to temps:

post-14819-0-67551100-1386321020_thumb.p

The op appears to be dichotomous to the control, the latter appear to bring in a more zonal flow:

Wind direction: post-14819-0-53112100-1386321117_thumb.p ...more westerly

Rainfall: post-14819-0-64886200-1386321140_thumb.p

So the day 10-15 period now bringing a more unsettled pattern into the picture. Though no clear trend yet.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

ECM today also shows High pressure maintained to the East or ESE and therefore the pattern will be the same as the other outputs in that a period of benign and quiescent weather is maintained with a lot of cloud and mild conditions on a light Southerly drift. It may feel a little chillier in the East and South at times as a drift from the SE moves across the channel with some chillier nights giving rise to the possibility of fog patches but overall the pattern remains locked solid at Day 10 with any rain only likely in the far NW.

Here are the Manchester 2m temps based on that ECM 0z runhttp://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Manchester/long.htmlI have to say it doesn't look especially mild to me. Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Not much joy for coldies on charts at the moment ,patience required i feel and something needed big time to give us better synoptics for a colder shot .but with 12 weeks of winter left all to play for .perhaps we may get some joy over coming days .Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

Well,i personally want the high to our east to make a swift exit and get the pattern mobile again.As Fergieweather said chancer are its going to wane slowly away!

I'm a coldie but it looks like the next 3 weeks is more of the same ie benign coolish the further south east and milder north west. Anyway we can but hope for a quickish change if lucky.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Well,i personally want the high to our east to make a swift exit and get the pattern mobile again.As Fergieweather said chancer are its going to wane slowly away!I'm a coldie but it looks like the next 3 weeks is more of the same ie benign coolish the further south east and milder north west. Anyway we can but hope for a quickish change if lucky.

The ECM 32 can change just like the rest of the outputs, and unfortunately a reset at this moment in time will just replace generally dry conditions with chances of at least some frost and sunshine with a zonal train of depressions running sw/ne.

 

With the vortex where it is no chance of any PM flows in between rain bands, its a case of this option or something worse, at least this weather means you can get out and enjoy the run up to Xmas, if the high at least orientates favourably there might be some frost to give it a more festive feel.

 

A mid latitude high can reset if the upstream pattern becomes more favourable, a sinking high stuck over southern Europe with the PV where it is you're still end up hoping for a reset, theres not many great options if you're a cold lover, the best at the moment IMO is some surface cold from the continent.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

A definite signal for mild conditions to dominate in the run up to Christmas with the NWP firmly against any significant cold let alone snow prospects.

 

With High pressure so strong over the near continent pumping up very warm Tm uppers and inflating the High even more. The strong low pressure over Greenland looks like a very stable default winter setup for the UK especailly so in December

Posted Image

Ian Brown is right in that it will take some shifting when this type of synoptic becomes entrenched.

Posted Image

All the natural forcings and factors are in its favour.

Sadly I might add as I love cold weather in the winter but when the situation is hopeless one has to be honest. Posted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Glad I didn't book any skiing in the alps over xmas, feel sorry for those folks. Hopefully the air stay pretty cold and preserves what they have...

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Always likely to be the case in the predicted set up SS....still think we have to potential to see some anomolously mild temps in favoured (or prone, depending on your viewpoint) areas across the north and west next week.  Overall the big picture remains a mild one for most of us, except perhaps across a small part of central and eastern England where temps could be close to average - the only real questions for me remain how quickly will the HP sink and the Atlantic kick into gear? Unfortunately the current answers look to be painfully slowly and probably just when we don't want it too...right on Xmas.Posted Image

Edited by shedhead
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Looking at the output and I have to say it's a dogs dinner if it's a deep cold spell your after, I see no signs of a change for the foreseeable and in fact I wouldn't at all be surprised if and when a change does come about it will be of the mild and wet variety.  As for wave activity this and vortex that, all I know is that the Northern arm of the jet is just far too strong and until we see that subside any hopes of a sustained cold spell are but just a dream.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham

Always likely to be the case in the predicted set up SS....still think we have to potential to see some anomolously mild temps in favoured (or prone, depending on your viewpoint) areas across the north and west next week.  Overall the big picture remains a mild one for most of us, except perhaps across a small part of central and eastern England where temps could be close to average - the only real questions for me remain how quickly will the HP sink and the Atlantic kick into gear? Unfortunately the current answers look to be painfully slowly and probably just when we don't want it too...right on Xmas.Posted Image

Except that's not really the case really according to the 2m temps of the ECM anyway. Manchester hitting double digits just once on Monday

 

Even the GFS only has two days of mild weather, 

 

Edited by frosty ground
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