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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

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A brand new thread then ready for the 12z outputs onwards.

 

After a brief colder shot from the north over the next 2-3 days it looks like settling down under high pressure again.Where will the block setup and what effect this will have on temperatures.

 

The next set of charts are out soon with their latest projections.

 

As always please keep on topic and respect different views- especially those supported by charts or other data.

 

OK continue when you are ready.

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Yesterday the NAO was showing to go negative this afternoon its a complete turn around

 

Posted Image

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Yesterday the NAO was showing to go negative this afternoon its a complete turn around

 

Posted Image

Yep. Not been the best 24 hours for coldies. Operationals, met-office backing of slightly and the above all suggest IMHO that the trend is heading upwards ( unless of course your a High Pressure cell in western europe ;) been great model watching though, and I've learnt so much recently. THank you - On to the 12z's

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Just as the op runs take a turn for the worst the GFS ensembles look more positive for a chance of colder weather from mid month

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The GEFS 06z mean shows the period up to about T+168 hours becoming dominated by high pressure for most of the uk with lighter winds and sunny spells but fog and frost patches overnight, the further south & east you are, the more chance of this occuring. Beyond the next week or so, a nw / se split develops with n.ireland and scotland becoming more generally unsettled and windier with temperatures close to average but with sw'ly milder spells at times. The southeastern half of the uk is likely to be generally fine with variable cloud amounts, sunny spells and lighter winds than further northwest with overnight frost and fog, the fog slow to clear and where it lingers it would be pretty cold and temperatures generally look slightly on the colder side of average. Eventually, the 6z mean shows a bit more ebb and flow of the PFJ with the lower heights to the northwest making occasional inroads further southeast but then the high to the south/se builds in again to regain the upper hand, at least for southern/se uk.

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Edited by Frosty.

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I noted that someone posted on the previous thread that there is no chance of a white xmas. just to clarify that this is nonsense. tbh, there are as many hints of a white xmas period as there are of a zonal one. i believe there is a xmas thread elsewhere anyway.

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Slightly better troughing in the atlantic, will be pretty much the same as the 6z though. NW-SE split regards to temp next week. Mainly dry for all of the UK.

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Edited by bradythemole

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Yesterday the NAO was showing to go negative this afternoon its a complete turn around

 

Posted Image

If nothing else, highlighting just how fickle and of limited use this particular product is.  Back to the 12GFS, no major changes in the overall pattern touted by the 06, but at least it's picked up on the Cambridgeshire cold pool early next week....Posted Image

 

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GEM more amplified at 120h than its morning run so it will be interesting to see what it goes on to produce.

 

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Hopefully more of the models start to follow GEM. brrr incoming post-16336-0-33609900-1386175913_thumb.p

Edited by bradythemole

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There could be some back-edge wet snow later tomorrow across parts of northern england and the north midlands, especially across higher ground as the front which brings the band of heavy rain south stalls for a time and the arctic air further north digs south as the front clears southeastwards

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Hopefully more of the models start to follow GEM. 

yep its a quality run tbh altho not in the reckoning mo wisePosted ImageAnd off it heads to greenlandPosted Image

Edited by swfc

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I noted that someone posted on the previous thread that there is no chance of a white xmas. just to clarify that this is nonsense. tbh, there are as many hints of a white xmas period as there are of a zonal one. i believe there is a xmas thread elsewhere anyway.

 

I don't think that is the case BA, this spell of rather bening weather will take us to at least Dec 15 then with the HIgh finally likely to decline E/SE the returning zonality would take care of at least another 2 weeks.

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Where has that GEM come from!!!!

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 Yes, interesting continuity there, essentially picking-up the evolutionary baton from where we sat with yesterday's 00z EC DET before it flipped to the other route. I think the raft of possible outcomes remain very much finely-balanced despite the broadly more consensual look of most recent NCEP/EC output into the same timeframe (eg to T+168).

Ian does the gem carry any credibility in your opinion?thanks

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What's the credibility of the cma model Ian?

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In the short term the general idea is for the cold air on Friday to move east and milder air moving over the UK

 

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GFS temps from Sunday shows most places getting above average early next week by Wednesday it could become cooler for many

 

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Edited by Summer Sun

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