Severe Storm System & Arctic Blast Thursday 5th Onwards

[The PIT]

Still potent but the yikes has now largely gone. Looks like the worst for us will between 9 and 12 and then moderate during the afternoon. Gusts up to mid sixties unless the pennines have an amplifying effect which will not be shown on the GFS.

So nasty but pretty sure my roof will still be on tomorrow evening.

[Coast]

Long warning from Skywarn, lots of detail:

 

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #041

ISSUED: 1200UTC WEDNESDAY 4TH DECEMBER 2013

 

SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:

STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS - NORTHERN IRELAND, NORTHERN ENGLAND & SCOTLAND

BRIEF, WEAK TORNADOES - WESTERN SCOTLAND, SOUTHERN SCOTLAND & NORTHERN ENGLAND

 

IN EFFECT FROM 0200UTC UNTIL 1400UTC THURSDAY 5TH DECEMBER 2013

 

DEEPENING LOW ENCOURAGING SEVERE GALES AND AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UK

 

DISCUSSION:

 

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY AGREEMENT ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WATCH ACCOMPANIES SEVERE WEATHER WARNING #042, PLEASE REFER TO DETAIL FOR SCOTLAND THERE. AS THE SPLIT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD, SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY ALONG AND BEHIND WITHIN A VERY WELL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED GUSTS ABOVE 70MPH ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP LINEAR FORM. LATER IN THE MORNING, A MORE SEGMENTED MODE MAY DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR POSSIBLE MESOCYCLONES TO ENHANCE GUSTS FURTHER, WITH A CHANCE FOR BRIEF TORNADOES BUT MORE LIKELY ISOLATED SLW EVENTS. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED. PLEASE REFERE TO WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

 

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

 

**** alerts contd below ****

 

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING #042

ISSUED: 1200UTC WEDNESDAY 4TH DECEMBER 2013

 

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A WARNING FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:

STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS - SCOTLAND, NORTHERN ISLES & NORTHEAST ENGLAND

HEAVY, LOCALLY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS - WESTERN, NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND EASTERN SCOTLAND & NORTHERN ISLES

 

IN EFFECT UNTIL 1400UTC THURSDAY 5TH DECEMBER 2013

 

DEEPENING LOW ENCOURAGING SEVERE GALES AND AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UK

 

DISCUSSION:

 

THERE IS STRONG MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY AGREEMENT OF A SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE REGIONS SPECIFIED. A LOW DEEPENING TO SUB-970MB CROSSES NORTH OF THE UK, ENCOURAGING SEVERE GALES ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE. MEAN WIND SPEEDS OF 60MPH MY BE REALISED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN, CENTRAL AND EASTERN SCOTLAND, WITH WIDESPREAD 50MPH WINDS FOR THE REMAINING REGIONS SPECIFIED. GIVEN SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND THE DYNAMICS OF THE DEEPENING LOW GENERATING MASS DESCENT, STRONGER WINDS ABOVE 925MB MAY BE ENCOURAGED TO SURFACE GENERATING GUSTS OF PERHAPS ABOVE 80MPH. IN ADDITION SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED GUSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE EASTERN SIDE OF SCOTLAND AND NORTHERN ENGLAND MAY ALSO SEE DAMAGING GUSTS OF OVER 70MPH OWING TO DESCENT AND LEE EFFECTS. COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTHERN ISLES MAY SEE FURTHER ENHANCEMENT TO WINDS OWING TO THE MOMENTUM OF THE LOW AND THE CHANCE OF A STING JET DEVELOPING INTO THE NORTH SEA, THOUGH THIS IS LESS LIKELY THAN OTHER RISKS. SUB-130DAM 850MB THICKNESSES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO FALL AS SNOW, CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS GIVEN THE WIND STRENGTH, AND POSSIBLY SOME DISRUPTIVE ACCUMULATIONS OVER HIGHER GROUND AND AS A RESULT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT LOWER LEVELS. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT COASTLINES ARE AT RISK OF A SEASONALLY HIGH TIDE BEING COINCIDENT WITH LARGE SWELLS IN GALE FORCE WINDS. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPDATED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

 

 

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/

[If Wishes made Weather]

Things are now being taken seriously in norhtern Germany with regard to this storm which is being called Xavier.

 

Schools are being closed for the day in certain counties, Hamburg has drafted extra personnel in for its subway/urban transport system including 4 special groups equipped to deal with fallen trees.  All emergancy services are drafting all staff in.  Fire brigades will have every truck (including reserve vehicles) manned and on standby in the firestations and out at certain areas which are flooding and wind prone.  Coast guard on full alert and great concern on the Hallig Islands and in particular in Hamburg as the synoptics are not dissimilar to those which caused the flooding in 1962.

[cheese]

Still potent but the yikes has now largely gone. Looks like the worst for us will between 9 and 12 and then moderate during the afternoon. Gusts up to mid sixties unless the pennines have an amplifying effect which will not be shown on the GFS.

So nasty but pretty sure my roof will still be on tomorrow evening.

Severe gales don't usually last very long - maybe an hour or two of 60mph+ gusts.

[Coast]

Things are now being taken seriously in norhtern Germany with regard to this storm which is being called Xavier.

 

Germany, Denmark and possibly Sweden look likely to cop some of the worst of it, maybe flooding an issue down as far as Holland?

 

Storm surge risk for North Sea nations

 

A major winter storm is expected to produce elevated sea levels to test coastal defences in the coming days.

 

A major storm in the North Atlantic is expected to bring a blast of cold weather to northwestern Europe in the coming days. Despite extremely heavy rain, snow and winds of 130kph, the main concern will be a major storm surge which is expected to coincide with a period of spring high tides. As the storm develops late on Wednesday and through Thursday, much of Scotland, the Netherlands, northern Germany, Denmark and southern Scandinavia will be buffeted by severe gale force winds.

 

Strengthening winds through Wednesday will be accompanied by snow which will sweep across Scotland and southern Norway on Thursday afternoon. During the evening and night, snow will impact upon the North Sea coasts of the Netherlands, Germany and Denmark. Blizzard-like conditions will prevail for a time before the snow turns more showery in nature overnight. The weather is likely to disrupt transport across the region, with airports such as Glasgow, Amsterdam’s Schipol, Hamburg and Copenhagen experiencing delays and cancellations. Most ferries are likely to be delayed or cancelled during Thursday and Friday.

 

Of greatest concern is the likelihood of a major storm surge, a dome of water produced by a combination of low pressure and, more importantly, severe gale to storm force winds. Coastal defences are likely to be tested to the limit as a storm surge estimated to be at least 3 metres high coincides with a period of spring high tides. In anticipation of the surge, the Dutch port of Rotterdam’s flood gates are expected to be closed for the first time since they were built in the 1990s.

 

The region is well used to devastating storm surges, the greatest of which occurred on the night of January 31 1953. A severe storm brought a surge of 5.6 metres. Sea defences in eastern England, the Netherlands and Belgium were overwhelmed. 2,551 people lost their lives, more than 1,800 of those in The Netherlands alone. Another 230 people lost their lives in shipwrecks and other maritime incidents. There is no suggestion that Thursday and Friday’s surge will be in any way comparable with 1953, but this is likely to be the severest test of defences across the North Sea region in the last 20 years

 

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/weather/2013/12/storm-surge-risk-north-sea-nations-20131249394125491.html

[If Wishes made Weather]

Authorities in Hamburg (being predictably more empirical than their counterparts here in their public information) are expecting a storm surge of 5.10m above 'normal null'.  To counter public concern they have noted that the dykes have been improved since 1962 and can now stand a flood of 8m. 

[Coast]

KNMI weather alert for Holland:

 

 

Valid: Thursday, December 5th, 2013 from approximately 09 hours for about 24 hours

 

As of Thursday morning there will be heavy gusts of between 75 and 100 km / h during the second half of the afternoon and the first half of the evening very heavy winds between 100 and 130 km / h.

 

http://www.knmi.nl/waarschuwingen_en_verwachtingen/regio.php?pr=ZH

 

Meteoalarm:

 

 

 

 

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/

Edited December 4, 2013 by Coast

[Cold Winter]

Medium risk of significant coastal flooding from this system - Met Office & Environment Agency have issued warnings. Northeast of England, Norfolk & North Wales are at highest risk due to the exposed location.

[The PIT]

No further downgrade for tomorrow morning but the afternoon much much calmer. So instead of winds moderating from 15:00 they'll decrease rapidly from 12:00.

So a stormy morning and then an afternoon of locating your wheelie bin.

Luckily no collection for us tomorrow. Since we're on a fortnightly collection though it would have to go out.

[Insert Name Here]

Starting to get very breezy here in Ayrshire now

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Seems this is going to be a baddy then...

 

http://www.scotrail.co.uk/content/reduced-services-5-dec-due-network-rail-speed-restrictions

 

"This is a precaution by Network Rail Scotland as a result of the severe winds and storms forecast for the morning – with wind speeds of up to 95mph expected.

As a result, a number of services will not run (see list below). Please note there may be alternative services via a different route. This list may change so keep checking here.  Many thanks."

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

The wind is certainly blowing here in Inverclyde.

[Richie V]

The wrong type of wind

Seems this is going to be a baddy then... http://www.scotrail.co.uk/content/reduced-services-5-dec-due-network-rail-speed-restrictions "This is a precaution by Network Rail Scotland as a result of the severe winds and storms forecast for the morning – with wind speeds of up to 95mph expected.As a result, a number of services will not run (see list below). Please note there may be alternative services via a different route. This list may change so keep checking here.  Many thanks."

[The PIT]

Evening forecast mentioned it was windy in Scotland already. Just checked xcweather and nothing of note at the moment. Highest 46 mph at Loch Glascarnoch. Should already be showing itself so wind is well down on the GFS prediction at the moment. If nothing is showing by ten it could be indicating that things aren't going to plan.

[Gaz1985]

Met Office going for 80mph gusts in this location tomorrow. I'm just inside the Amber warning

Edited December 4, 2013 by Gaz1985

[pip22]

Watch BBC News now!! Its talking about the windstorm tomorrow.

 

Jay Wynne says storm surge may effect the east coast and heavy snow showers may linger in NE Scotland well on into Friday.

 

The Windstorm name is Xaver.

 

Edited December 4, 2013 by pip22

[doctormog]

The winds are not really forecast to pick up until midnight and then further throughout tomorrow morning. I would not expect things to overly windy anywhere at the moment. Rush hour tomorrow was and I think probably still is the biggest risk time period because of the combination of strong winds and commuting in the Central Belt.

[P-M]

Evening forecast mentioned it was windy in Scotland already. Just checked xcweather and nothing of note at the moment. Highest 46 mph at Loch Glascarnoch. Should already be showing itself so wind is well down on the GFS prediction at the moment. If nothing is showing by ten it could be indicating that things aren't going to plan.

 

The fact they have an amber warning out this close would suggest otherwise - there is something brewing - xcweather had wind gusts of around 65+mph when I checked before albeit in this location anyway.

 

 

I was under the impression that the strongest winds are when this system exits across the North Sea which is tomorrow?

Edited December 4, 2013 by P-M

[Liam J]

Expect the strongest winds to develop during the early hours, peaking around 6am to 9am before beginning to moderate quickly from the west.

 

Nothing overly windy this side of midnight anyway.

Edited December 4, 2013 by Liam J

[The PIT]

Things not going to plan could simply mean it's delayed. However watching what's happening on XCweather can give an early indication that things are going awry either worse or less than expected.

[Liam J]

Worth bearing in mind that the majority of the station observations are taken hourly and may not always give the true picture. One of my favourite sites for sure in these events

Edited December 4, 2013 by Liam J

[The PIT]

Worth bearing in mind that the majority of the station observations are taken hourly and may not always give the true picture. One of my favourite sites for sure in these events

Which is another problem of course.

2nd thoughts it is showing itself doh.

[Liam J]

Gusts around 40-50mph over NW scotland/Islands now, steady increase in wind speeds.

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/observations

Edited December 4, 2013 by Liam J

[Matty M]

I am expecting peak winds for here and NI around 9am, so a good few hours to go.

 

Looks like there could be widespread 60-70 knot gusts tomorrow in NI and into parts of Scotland/N England.

 

Expecting to get to 55/60kn at Dublin Airport just after 9am,but a little bit too far south.

[Cloud 10]

The center of the LP just NW of Iceland a short while ago.

 

Edited December 4, 2013 by Liam J