Severe Storm System & Arctic Blast Thursday 5th Onwards

[WillinGlossop]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&CONT=ukuk&LAND=UK&REGION=0003&SORT=3&UD=0&INT=06&TYP=windspitzen&ART=tabelle&RUBRIK=akt&DATE=1386226800&CEL=C&SI=mph

106 mph at glen ogle.....

Edited December 5, 2013 by WillinGlossop

[Coast]

19 Severe flood warnings out for the eastern side of the UK for the high tides following this too, very scary stuff.

 

Right down as far as Essex: 

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/34678.aspx?type=Region&term=Anglian

[Love Snow]

Bad Drive into Leeds this morning lots of stuff flying about seen a tree down on a main road !!

Stay safe people

[The PIT]

A breezy walking in biggest problem where the leaves and dust blowing into your face. Since it's been dry there's plenty of dust. Now got up 61 mph at home.

[radiohead]

19 Severe flood warnings out for the eastern side of the UK for the high tides following this too, very scary stuff.

 

Yes. There was only 1 last night.

 

Edited December 5, 2013 by radiohead

[Coast]

DRIVERS were urged to consider delaying journeys until after the morning rush hour today, as Scotland was put on storm alert with a warning that blizzards and strong winds, gusting to hurricane force in places, were set to sweep the country. Travellers were being urged to prepare for widespread disruption on the roads, in the air and on the railways as the most severe weather hits the Highlands and northern Scotland with winds of up to 90mph in exposed parts.

 

Train operator ScotRail announced yesterday that none of its services would run before 7am and said services on more than 20 routes were cancelled. Last night the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (Sepa) issued flood warnings for Edinburgh and other towns and villages on the Firth of Forth and south-west coast of Scotland as a combination of high tides and a storm surge hit the areas.

 

‘Be prepared’

 

The Met Office issued an amber “be prepared†warning for most of Scotland with a risk of coastal flooding as a result of high tides and high winds. Forth Road Bridge operators said it was likely to be closed to all vehicles except cars and with a “significant possibility†of a full bridge closure during the morning peak period.

 

“Car drivers are advised to delay their journey if possible,†they said. “Winds are forecast to ease over the course of the day. Hauliers are advised to plan an alternative route.†A Scottish Government spokesman said the most severe weather to hit the mainland was expected in the Highlands and northern Scotland. But Central Belt commuters were also being warned to prepare for “challenging conditionsâ€.

 

The spokesman said: “The winds are likely to impact on ferry services and lead to speed restrictions on some bridges. Network Rail and ScotRail are also warning of reduced services and emergency speed restrictions on some routes. “Snow showers are expected to affect the north and north-east through Thursday and Friday, most frequently across the Northern Isles, the north Highlands and northern Aberdeenshire. Icy conditions may develop on some roads across Scotland on Thursday night and Friday morning.â€

 

Rail services

 

ScotRail services are not expected to run on 20 routes, including the West Highland lines, the Edinburgh to Perth via Kirkcaldy route and the Ayr to Kilmarnock stretch. In addition, services are not due to operate until at least 4pm on the Glasgow Central to Ayr, Gourock, Largs, Wemyss Bay routes and Dalmuir to Balloch and Helensburgh. Reduced timetables are in operation on main commuter routes such as Edinburgh to Glasgow Queen Street, Perth to Inverness, and Edinburgh and Glasgow to Aberdeen.

 

Forth Road Bridge

 

The Forth Road Bridge is expected to be closed to all vehicles except cars and there is a “significant possibility†that a full bridge closure will be needed in the morning, its operators said. Power companies have engineers ready to deal with any power line issues or general supply disruption around the country, the Scottish Government said. All workers on Buchan Alpha oil platform, 83 miles off the coast of Aberdeen, have been flown off the platform because of the weather forecast, operator Talisman Sinopec Energy UK confirmed yesterday.

 

Superintendent Iain Murray, head of road policing, said: “Drivers are advised to check media and public information sites for early indications of road closures and other incidents. “High winds and driving rain will make driving conditions difficult, particularly on open roads and over bridges. If you must travel during rush hour, allow plenty of time. Drive with care to the road conditions, keeping a safe braking distance from the vehicles ahead of you.â€

 

Reduced rail speed

 

Marc Becker, Sepa’s hydrology duty manager, said: “A combination of high tides and storm surge will result in a risk of flooding along the Firth of Forth, Fife, East Lothian and Scottish Borders during Thursday afternoon. “There may also be wave and spray overtopping across north-west Scotland, the Western Isles, Orkney and along the west coast, as far south as Oban, during the early part of Thursday morning which could affect roads.†Train operator East Coast has told passengers to allow extra time to make their journeys because of the stormy weather. ScotRail announced that a 40mph speed limit will apply to all trains in Scotland.

 

A spokesman for ferry operator Caledonian MacBrayne said: “The forecast for Thursday morning is particularly severe and we would advise travellers to take this into account.†Yesterday, in advance of the storm front striking the North Sea, oil giant Talisman Sinopec Energy UK left one of its main production platforms, the Buchan Alpha installation, completely unmanned for safety reasons.

 

 

http://www.scotsman.com/news/environment/scotland-s-weather-travel-warning-90mph-winds-1-3220426

 

Since that article was released, several bridges are closed in Scotland including the Forth Road Bridge which is reporting winds as follows:

 

 

http://www.forthroadbridge.org/weather

 

[Polar Maritime]

Sat up Fox House in car having a brew befor work, realy blowing a gale up here would say 70/80 mph gusts at times... worst is expected to hit around mid-morning here.

[Coast]

A level 2 across Scotland from ESTOFEX currently:

 

 

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 05 Dec 2013 06:00 to Fri 06 Dec 2013 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 04 Dec 2013 22:49

Forecaster: GATZEN

 

A level 2 was issued for Scotland, the central North Sea, Denmark, southern Sweden, eastern Germany, and north-western Poland mainly for severe convective wind gusts.

 

A level 1 was issued for southern Poland, the Czech Republic, and surroundings mainly for severe convective wind gusts.

 

SYNOPSIS

 

Continuing height falls across central and eastern Europe on the one hand and increasing geopotential across the northern Atlantic result in a west-north-westerly flow over most of Europe on Thursday morning. A frontal wave that was located to the south of Iceland on Wednesday 18Z will move south-east and is expected over southern Norway on Thursday, 12Z. Located in a favourably coupled jet streak position, rapid intensification is forecast by latest models and the centre pressure will drop by 40 hPa within 24 hours. A strong winter storm is therefore expected to affect an area from the northern British Isles to the southern Baltic Sea region. Intense cold air advection will be dominant in the wake of the storm. Across southern Europe, subsidence is expected through-out the forecast period.

 

DISCUSSION

 

British Isles, North Sea, southern Scandinavia, Germany, Poland, and surroundings

 

In the morning hours, the North Sea low will move into southern Norway. Its cold front will cross most of the British Isles and the North Sea. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow tongue of boundary-layer moisture with 0-1 km mixing ratio around 5 g/kg will spread from the British Isles to southern Scandinavia. Given moist-adiabatic lapse rates and rather warm sea surface temperatures, weak instability is forecast ahead of the cold front, allowing for a narrow cold frontal rain band with embedded shallow convection. The contribution of deep moist convection to the wind gust occurrence is expected to be weak to the south of the jet core.

 

From the jet maximum northward, strong DCVA will lead to QG lift and the low-level saturated air mass will become deeper. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the cold front from Scotland to the central North Sea until noon. Given very strong vertical wind shear, convection will organize and shallow multicells with linear segments are expected. Especially in the northern portions, rapid movement of these linear segments will result in an increasing surface wind gust threat that warrants a level 2.

 

In the afternoon, most prominent convective development is expected along the cold front. Especially from Denmark to the southern Baltic Sea, thunderstorms are forecast given the strong DCVA at the cyclonically sheared flank of the mid-level 50 m/s jet streak. A quasi-linear mesoscale convective system capable of producing high or extremely high winds is not ruled out if this scenario will become true.

 

Together with the strongest DCVA, the convective activity will spread south-east in the evening, where the main limiting factor is the dry boundary layer. The mostly occluded warm sector will only allow for a mixing ratio up to 4 g/kg. So it is questionable if cold pools will develop due to the lack of intense convective precipitation. A maintaining quasi-linear convective system becomes unlikely for this reason.

 

Current thinking is that a broken line of storms is the most likely scenario over eastern Germany and Poland. Local downdrafts will increase the wind gust threat especially in association with persistent multicells that may evolve small but rapidly moving cold pools. Wind gusts in excess of 33 m/s are forecast with this convection along the cold front, and a level 2 is issued. The threat will spread across eastern Germany into Poland during the evening hours. Although tornadoes are not ruled out, the weak low-level buoyancy is expected to limit the potential strongly.

 

Together with the strongest DCVA, the cold frontal convection is forecast to spread into the western Ukraine at the end of the period. Although moisture will further decrease, showers capable of producing severe wind gusts are still not ruled out.

 

In the wake of the cold front, strong cold air advection is expected. The warm sea surface of the North Sea will allow for weak CAPE in the cold air mass. Especially in the range of short-wave troughs travelling south-east, showers and thunderstorms are possible, but will likely be isolated due to the unfavourable QG situation. The convective downdrafts are not forecast to enhance the severe wind gust strength significantly given strong turbulent mixing in the lower levels even without convection.

 

 

[Coast]

 

Later:

 

 

 

 

 

 

[radiohead]

Number of flood warnings (non severe) now up to 78.

[P-M]

Gusts are becoming more frequent and more intense currently - but nothing too serious so far.  Checked xc weather and by 9am aprox 68-70 mph gusts forecast here.

 

Can't wait to head to the coast later to see the high tide and waves.

 

I see the media have latched on to it now they realise real humans live up north rather than a load of sheep and cows.

Edited December 5, 2013 by P-M

[Coast]

Germany, Holland and South Scandinavia likely to get the same or even higher wind and gusts from this afternoon onwards:

 

 

[Paul]

Latest homepage weather update from Jo - Northern storm is underway...

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5552;sess=

[Jo Farrow]

Glad I got the morning update finished as my lights are flickering like mad

[radiohead]

Severe flood warnings now up from 19 to 21, flood warnings up from 78 to 95 just in the past 15 minutes.

 

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/31618.aspx

[Jo Farrow]

Orkney and the far NE of mainland Scotland, Peterhead way, still look at risk til lunchtime of gusts over 80mph

[gottolovethisweather]

Some might find the link mentioned within this post useful too. They mention on the old update that the Thames Flood Barrier will close as well.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78387-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-061113-0000z/?p=2854363

[Coast]

Weather Alert: 95mph Winds And Tidal Surges

 

Forecasters warn parts of Britain should brace for some of the worst weather conditions for 30 years, including "severe" floods.

 

Parts of the UK have been told to expect some of the worst weather conditions for 30 years as a combination of gale-force winds and large waves threaten to bring severe flooding. The Environment Agency and Met Office are predicting huge tidal surges within 48 hours that could see water levels breach sea defences along the east coast of England. Forecasters warned that sea levels in some places could be as high as in 1953's devastating flooding - when 326 deaths in eastern counties of England and Scotland exposed weaknesses in Britain's flood defences.

 

The Thames Barrier was closed last night to protect London. Train operators are asking commuters to prepare for delays and Scotrail has cancelled all trains before 7am today, with forecasters predicting 95mph winds and a dusting of snow across parts of the country. Areas most at risk include the North Sea coast from Northumberland down to the Thames Estuary and Kent.

 

The Environment Agency has issued a severe flood warning - its highest category - to homes and businesses near The Quay in Sandwich, Kent, for high tides at 12.43am and 1.06pm on Friday. At present, there are also 34 flood warnings and 59 flood alerts in place. The tidal reaches of the River Trent in Nottinghamshire could also be affected. On the west coast, from Cumbria down to Cheshire, severe gales and large waves combined with high water levels are also expected.

 

Environment Agency chief executive Dr Paul Leinster said: "Gale-force winds and large waves along the east coast of England are forecast during Thursday and Friday, coinciding with high tides and a significant coastal surge. "Flooding of some coastal communities is expected and some defences could be overtopped by the combined effect of high tides, high winds and a tidal surge. "Coastal paths and promenades will be highly dangerous as there is an increased risk of people being swept out to sea."

 

If the predictions are correct the UK will experience some of its most severe weather since a storm in October that saw hurricane-force winds rip through the south of the country, killing four people. The Met Office has already issued a flurry of weather warnings, having told people in parts of Scotland and northern England they could face a short, sharp, stormy spell of weather over the next 48 hours. Sky News weather producer Chris England said: "Damaging 90mph gusts are likely in the far north and northwest, while Scotland's central belt can expect gusts of over 70mph."

 

Forecasters said the winds would turn more northerly on Thursday afternoon and into Friday, bringing cold air and snow showers down from the Arctic. England has been largely spared extreme weather so far this winter, although that is expected to change when northerly winds from the Arctic bring freezing temperatures to large parts of the UK with snow showers affecting Scotland, Northern Ireland, parts of northern England, north Wales and the east coast from today. Temperatures are due to plummet to as low as -4C (25F) overnight tonight in parts of Scotland with the bitter northerly winds set to leave the rest of the country shivering.

 

The weather is likely to bring a certain amount of disruption to transport services, with Network Rail already bracing customers in Scotland and parts of north and eastern England for delays. Robin Gisby, Network Rail's director of operations, said: "As we saw with the recent storm which affected the south of England, being prepared and on top of severe weather is key to helping us resume normal levels of services as quickly as possible. "We will be monitoring conditions on the ground closely throughout the night and into the morning and will have teams in place to react quickly to any damage caused by the weather. "We will keep as much of the network open as is possible however the potential extreme nature of the conditions and the impact it could have on our infrastructure means that speed restrictions and other measures are necessary in the interests of the safety of passengers and our staff."

 

 

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1177838/weather-alert-95mph-winds-and-tidal-surges

[Snowyowl9]

BBC are really hyping this storm up now which has come out of nowhere...

[Coast]

BBC are really hyping this storm up now which has come out of nowhere...

 

Not really. It's been discussed here for a week now and the media (including the Countryfile forecast) were on to it from last weekend.

[radiohead]

2 more severe flood warnings added in the past 15 minutes. Up to 23 now.

 

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/31618.aspx

[Liam J]

Just clocked 72.3mph gust outside my front door. Insane outside atm. Reaching their peak soon over N england.

[P-M]

Reports on local news here of a lot of trees down - Great North Road in Newcastle has had a few felled trees which blocked the road.   Transport disruption becoming more widespread too - the effects of Scotland taking a battering so routes towards and over the border badly affected.

 

Did BBC news say 114mph gust reported in Scotland??

[NL]

Plethora of Sferics showing out in the North Sea.

NW 5min radar.

[Liam J]

Storm force winds blasting through the Central belt of Scotland http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

Scottish rail network being shut down due to safety concerns & debris on tracks -

 

Network Rail Scot â€@NetworkRailSCOT5m

Due to the huge amount of debris - trampolines, hay bales, trees - on the tracks the entire network in Scotland in being closed down...1/2

 

Network Rail Scot â€@NetworkRailSCOT33m

Due to debris smashing glass in the roof, Glasgow Central station is being evacuated. No-one has been hurt and arriving passengers are...1/2

Edited December 5, 2013 by Liam J