Severe Storm System & Arctic Blast Thursday 5th Onwards

[Liam J]

Also a major weather event for much of Northern & Central UK lets not forget, somewhere could squeeze gusts knocking on for 100mph, even inland populated towns could experience gusts around 70mph - Coinciding with a busy weekday morning, school runs, the commute to work etc. 

Edited December 3, 2013 by Liam J

[Liam J]

Wind gust chart for Thursday morning.

 

 

 

[Boro Snow]

Wind gust chart for Thursday morning.

 

gfs4.png

its going to be a bit breezy where i live then 

 

Surely gusts that high warrants an amber warning to make it a bit more publicized

Edited December 3, 2013 by Boro Snow

[Liam J]

its going to be a bit breezy where i live then 

 

Surely gusts that high warrants an amber warning to make it a bit more publicized

 

I expect tomorrow the details will be firmed up on and the warnings normally get reviewed and updated around 11am, if necessary.  Amber warnings very likely to be issued IMO for this event. 

Edited December 3, 2013 by Liam J

[Matty M]

Latest run passes the low through quicker.

 

Winds just as severe.

[lorenzo]

Bomb. 12mb drop in 6 hrs..

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Nick F]

Yep. looks pretty bad Thursday morning across Scotland, gusts of 80-90mph on 18z GFS, perhaps 90mph+ in a few spots. Funneling through the central belt could bring some very damaging gusts to the populated areas here.

 

If these wind gusts were forecast down sarf, I'm sure there would be alot more media attention! This maybe worse than St Judes!

[lorenzo]

Yep. looks pretty bad Thursday morning across Scotland, gusts of 80-90mph on 18z GFS, perhaps 90mph+ in a few spots. Funneling through the central belt could bring some very damaging gusts to the populated areas here.

 

If these wind gusts were forecast down sarf, I'm sure there would be alot more media attention! This maybe worse than St Judes!

 

Guess it is relative to the size of population impacted by St Judes versus the number of folks due to be in line for this one.

 

Still, I would hope an Amber warning does go out, ESPECIALLY considering timing, as Liam mentioned, right on the school run, don't need anymore hellish accidents that can totally be avoided.

[BurntFishTrousers]

right on the school run

 

Personally, at that time, if the worst hits then, then it's RED warning - and I don't care which part of the UK we all stay in, populated or not. You can wrap up all you like how a RED is only for the south or London, but there is a humdinger of a low brewing for Thursday morning for all parts north of Wales, and there's thousands of school runs taking place then.

Edited December 3, 2013 by BurntFishTrousers

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Personally, at that time, if the worst hits then, then it's RED warning - and I don't care which part of the UK we all stay in, populated or not. You can wrap up all you like how a RED is only for the south or London, but there is a humdinger of a low brewing for Thursday morning for all parts north of Wales, and there's thousands of school runs taking place then.

Personally, I agree with this. Me having to walk about a mile to school at around 8:30 with the possibility of 85+mph winds bearing down on me, dodging anything that flies by me and stopping my 4ft 5 (a few inches exaggerated) friend from blowing away is quite a challenge. Red warning for me.

This storm will be fun!

Wind gust chart for Thursday morning.

 

gfs4.png

Really nice if your a storm lover like me!

[The PIT]

Big downgrade on the midnight run hopefully a glitch the 12oz will tell all.

[Liam J]

Big downgrade Pit? Top gusts have come down slightly (5mph or so) and thats just on the OP run, still many more intense options

 

  http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=30

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=36

 

00z gust charts

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast

 

Lets see how the 12z runs handle the system 

Edited December 4, 2013 by Liam J

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Liam.. Touching 70mph during rush hour over the spine of the country

 

[Coast]

And I thought a BFT was me

 

Morning Mondy!

 

 

I believe Coast means that these three threads should be merged together, as they are basically discussing the same thing.

 

Yes sorry, tomorrow's event has obviously several different elements but effectively it's the same storm bringing wind and possible snow, so just hoping the posts from other threads could be bought into one place

 

GFS has modified it's outlook slightly overnight with the main emphasis for the high gusty winds now further North and maybe a few hours earlier:

 

 

 

There is still substantial helicity and shear over the Country throughout the day:

 

 

But Look at at the swathe out to our East in Europe, there's bound to be some damage in places:

 

 

Northern Europe, Denmark and Sweden particularly in for a battering:

 

 

122 km/h gusts:

 

 

Maybe a peak 129 km/hr over the boarders with Scotland?

 

Edited December 4, 2013 by Coast

[doctormog]

I notice that my WeatherPro app has a period on one hour tomorrow (11am to midday) under hurricane force wind warning for Aberdeen. Ouch.

[Coast]

NMM Hi-Res shows peak a little earlier but see how it exits into the North Sea and those look like 90mph gusts heading East:

 

 

 

Weather warnings out from the Met Office for the whole of the Country from the Midlands upwards:

 

Yellow Alert of Wind 05 Dec 2013,

 

Valid From: 05 Dec 2013, 00:05

Valid To: 05 Dec 2013, 21:00

Issued at - 03 Dec 2013, 11:26

Valid from - 05 Dec 2013, 00:05

Valid to - 05 Dec 2013, 21:00

 

Westerly gales are expected to spread southwards across northern and some central areas of the UK on Thursday, with gusts of 60 to 70 mph likely across parts of northern and eastern England, North Wales and Northern Ireland. Parts of Scotland could see gusts reach 80 mph, and perhaps 90 mph in the  far north of Scotland for a time. 

 

Winds will veer northwesterly and begin to ease in most places during the afternoon, with the strongest winds becoming confined to eastern coastal areas by the evening. 

 

The public should be aware of the potential for significant disruption, particularly to transport through the central belt of Scotland during Thursday morning. There is potential for coastal flooding along the East Coast of England, and some overtopping of causeways across the Western and Northern Isles of Scotland. 

 

This updates the alert originally issued on Monday. Further updates will follow on Wednesday

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/dg/dg_forecast_warnings.html

Edited December 4, 2013 by Coast

[Paul]

Latest from Jo Farrow on tomorrow and beyond:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5551;sess=

[Coast]

Met office show the main action up in Scotland with 77mph gusts first thing tomorrow morning. I know you guys are more used to this kind of stuff, but it still looks pretty windy up there: 

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/london-greater-london#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1386115200

[johnholmes]

you can see the depression already on the Fax chart for 0600z and the satellite movie, both links given yesterday and perhaps easier to find on the technical thread this morning for anyone interested.

[NL]

A level 2 issued for Scotland from ESTOFEX.

 

http://www.estofex.org/

 

So for Scotland the storm starts today.

Edited December 4, 2013 by NL

[Coast]

you can see the depression already on the Fax chart for 0600z and the satellite movie, both links given yesterday and perhaps easier to find on the technical thread this morning for anyone interested.

 

[Coast]

 

Looks like Abredeenshire is in for the worst of it?

 

 

http://warnings.severe-weather-centre.co.uk/

 

Doesn't look extremely convective at this point, lots of shear though so maybe something helical?

 

 

 

Edited December 4, 2013 by Coast

[Mapantz]

Amber warnings have now been issued; http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1386115200

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/3days/125305.aspx

It will be during rush hour for many folk, serious risk of flooding too, not good. Stay safe up there!

Edited December 4, 2013 by Mapantz

[cheese]

Amber warning for wind now:

 

 

 

Westerly gales are expected to spread southwards across northern and central areas of the UK on Thursday, with widespread gusts of 60 to 70 mph. However within the area of the amber warning gusts are expected to reach 80 mph in places and perhaps as high as 90 mph in exposed parts of the north and west of Scotland. Winds will veer northwesterly and begin to ease during the afternoon, with the strongestwinds becoming confined to eastern coastal areas by the evening. There is also the potential for significant coastal flooding along the East Coast of England, parts of southeast Scotland, north Wales and northwest England. This may include flooding affecting parts of coastal communities and travel disruption along coastal routes.The public should be prepared for the potential for significant disruption.This warning will be kept under close review and updated as necessary.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-4.44&lat=55.55&fcTime=1386201600

Edited December 4, 2013 by cheese

[johnholmes]

for those wishing to follow the development of the low please see below, simply click on the link you are interested in

The Thursday storm for the north

 

I did promise to give a link to useful sites to watch this form-deepen and track through Wednesday into Friday.

 

Also copied into the so called technical thread-don’t be put off by the title, it should remain easier to find than in here where no doubt by tomorrow it will be ‘lost’. Enjoy following and learning about the weather from this depression, have a look at the Net Weather Guides for more information on things you may not be clear about and of course ask questions.

 

The Fax charts

http://www.weatherch...rg/ukmomslp.htm

Satellite charts with the infra red movie version perhaps the best to track but others also very interesting, for the Dundee ones you need to register (it’s free and easy to do)

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/auth.html

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

Actual weather, several places to bookmark

For actual weather on the Shetland Isles

http://www.shetland....ast/default.asp

Regular hourly reports from sites all over the UK and abroad if you wish

below the local forecaster on Fair Isle-usually very accurate

http://www.northisles-weather.co.uk/

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Track the low from buoy reports although many are south of its expected track

http://www.ndbc.noaa...d_Kingdom.shtml

 

Charts showing the progress of the low

Obviously 6 hourly updates from Exeter of their Fax charts

And this site, remember it is a computer generated chart and is at times not as accurate as the Fax for the same time. It is very useful to watch its general track, deepening etc.

http://meteocentre.c...〈=en&map=UK

for those that understand the WMO code this list all the stations in the UK in the SYNOP code with stations in Shetland and Orkney fromm03001 to about 03017, to see what the SYNOP for Torshavn north of the track is giving the type in 06011, all of them report every 6 hours, 00,06,12,18 and some every 3 hours

http://www.ogimet.com/synops.phtml.en

 

 

For forecasts-see above for Shetland and below the full UK Met including shipping areas

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Edited December 4, 2013 by johnholmes