South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 03/12/13

[VillagePlank]

Over the rooftops this morning I saw a beautiful blurred sunrise as i couldnt find my glasses, and therefore a camera. But it was, honest.

 

Very frightening thought of a 3m storm surge around the coast.

 

As 1 Bar = 10m head of water, then 100 mb reduction in sea surface pressure should equate to a rise of 1metre in a wide body of water, which of course the North Sea isnt, its a funnel. Its a complex hydraulic set up influenced by tidal movements, atmospheric pressure, the conduit shape, wind direction and fetch. So the calcs are difficult but the Environment Agency has this sort of thing pretty much nailed. Better than our weather models anyway !

 

I must admit I was very surprised at how well the numerical tidal-surge models verified. It's a shame they don't get more press; from what I can tell it's a British success story!

[fluid dynamic]

 

 

http://www.nce.co.uk/news/nce-live-news-updates-thursday-4-december-britain-braced-for-biggest-coastal-surge-in-decades/8656396.article?blocktitle=NCE-Live-Updates&contentID=8860

 

Nice link, Coast.

 

NCE is my industry weekly newspaper. Bit more accurate than the Express.

[Coast]

Can anyone confirm some of the points in this article?

 

Norfolk and Suffolk are bracing themselves for what's being described as the worst flooding in 30 years. Communities in north Norfolk, Great Yarmouth, Lowestoft and around Southwold are preparing to be evacuated. Severe flood warnings are in place for the high tide tonight.  It's expected to combined with very high winds to create a tidal surge capable of creating waves big enough to breach sea defences.

 

The following areas have severe flood warnings:

 

Blakeney - highest water expected at 8pm

 

Wells - highest water expected at 8pm

 

Salthouse - highest water expected at 8pm

 

Walcott - highest water expected at 8pm

 

Great Yarmouth - highest water expected at 10.30pm

 

Lowestoft - highest water expected at 10.45pm

 

Oulton Broad - highest water expected at 10.45pm

 

Southwold - highest water expected at 10.45pm

 

Aldeburgh - highest water expected at 10.45pm

 

Blythburgh - highest water expected at 10.45pm

 

Felixstowe - highest water expected at 10.45pm

 

Anyone living along the seafront or tidal rivers in these areas are being asked to be prepared to leave.  No one's being asked to evacuate their homes yet but emergency services will coordinate any evacuations.  So for now, get ready but you don't need to leave until you are asked to.

 

If you are worried your home might be affected you can find out by calling the Environment Agency's Floodline on 0845 988 1188. The Environment Agency say we should be braced for the most serious coastal tidal surge for over 30 years. The Met Office are warning that gale-force winds, large waves and a tidal surge caused by low pressure will combine with high tides tonight and throughout Friday and to Saturday morning, bringing a risk of significant coastal flooding. Police in Norfolk and Suffolk have launched a major operation to prepare for large evacuations and road closures. David Skevington, Assistant Chief Constable Suffolk Constabulary said: "The most recent modelling by the Environment Agency has made it clear that areas of the Suffolk Coastline and surrounding residential and commercial properties are likely to be affected by flood waters.  Officers from agencies across the county are working together to ensure the risk to residents in those areas is kept to a minimum. It is important that residents listens to the advice and direction that is given to them by officers on the ground and take the appropriate action. "Rest centres are being set up to ensure there is somewhere safe for people to remain for the duration of the incident. “We anticipate a number of roads will be closed later today due to flooding. I would urge people to monitoring the local media and the environment agency website to ensure they keep up to date with any developments. "  

 

Norfolk’s Deputy Chief Constable Charlie Hall said: "Norfolk has tried and tested flood response plans which are currently in the process of being activated, in line with Environment Agency advice. "A multi-agency co-ordinating group has been convened twice to ensure appropriate plans and resources are in place. "The group is planning for potential disruption for a prolonged period of up to 36 hours and households in those affected areas should be mindful of this.â€

 

In some places, sea levels could be as high as those during the devastating floods of 1953. However, flood defences built since then – may offer us more protection than was available 60 years ago. It's also expected to be worse that the tidal surge in 2007 which flooded homes in Walcott and Great Yarmouth. Dr Paul Leinster, Environment Agency Chief Executive, said: 'Gale force winds and large waves along the east coast of England are forecast during Thursday and Friday, coinciding with high tides and a significant coastal surge'. 'Flooding of some coastal communities is expected and some defences could be overtopped by the combined effect of high tides, high winds and a tidal surge.' 'Coastal paths and promenades will be highly dangerous as there is an increased risk of people being swept out to sea.'

 

'The Environment Agency is monitoring the situation closely, working alongside partners including the emergency services, Met Office and local authorities. Environment Agency teams are out on the ground checking that flood defences and barriers are in good working order, monitoring sea levels and issuing flood warnings.'

 

http://www.heart.co.uk/norfolk/news/local/east-anglia-storm-surge-worst-30-years/

[fluid dynamic]

I must admit I was very surprised at how well the numerical tidal-surge models verified. It's a shame they don't get more press; from what I can tell it's a British success story!

 

Incompressible fluid dynamics (water, to all intents and purposes is incompressible)  is a lot easier to calculate and model than the compressible atmosphere (more variables) we move about in, therefore we can expect accurate verification.

 

Gosh its getting windy out there

[Eskimo]

Really is roaring out there here in Hull. At 8am winds were gusting at 20mph, now they are gusting at nearly 50. Worst is yet to come.

[Coast]

http://youtu.be/MfgpKXwG8xY

[janetmh71]

Being so close to sea level here it could be an interesting 24 hours. Have many drains nearby the biggest being the middle level but think I will sleep with one ear and one eye open tonight!

[kate1]

Yes, unfortunately it does seem that the article is accurate about what is going to happen later today... we have friends in Southwold. Pretty scary stuff.

[HammerJack]

Morning all. Well it was a very cold and frosty late walk home from the pub last night. I was expecting a heavy frost when I woke the morning.

Instead, like many others have said, I woke to a glowing red sky. Really took me back, can't remember seeing such a prominent red sunrise like this before. Wind picking up and it feels really cold out there.

[alexisj9]

Wind picking up here, glad I'm not up north.

[Coast]

Yes, unfortunately it does seem that the article is accurate about what is going to happen later today... we have friends in Southwold. Pretty scary stuff.

 

Backed up by the BBC:

 

Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex severe flood warnings issued

 

Residents in low lying parts of Norfolk have been told to prepare to leave their homes on Thursday night because of predicted floods.

 

A tide of more than 6ft (1.82m) above the normal maximum is expected at 22:30 GMT caused by severe northerly winds, the Environment Agency said. Residents in the Cobholm Island and Southtown areas of Great Yarmouth have been warned to prepare to leave. More than 20 severe flood warnings are in force in Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex. Matthew Philpott, from the Environment Agency, said: "There's some nasty weather in the North Sea at the moment with gusts of gale force north westerly winds coupled with spring floods and a large tidal surge. "They are all combining to give quite a risk of flooding."

 

Severe flood warnings main areas

 

Isolated riverside properties on the Deben Estuary

Waterside properties at Mistley and Brantham

Tidal River Orwell at Ipswich Quay

Felixstowe Ferry and Bawdsey Quay

Felixstowe Ferry Hamlet and the Deben Marshes

West Mersea, The Strood and adjacent marshland

Southwold and surrounding marshes

Snape, Iken and surrounding marshland

Aldeburgh and Thorpeness

Blythburgh and marshes upstream of A12

Lowestoft Riverside Business Park and Kirkley

Oulton Broad near Mutford Lock

Lake Lothing at Lowestoft and Bourne Business Park to Mutford Lock

Lowestoft Seafront and docks

Great Yarmouth River Bure from Scare Gap to the Euro Centre Industrial Estate

Rivers Yare and Bure at Great Yarmouth

River Yare at Great Yarmouth from Gorleston to the Pilot station including Southtown and Cobholm Island

North Norfolk Coast at Salthouse, Blakeney and Wells Quay

The first surges are expected on the north Norfolk coast at about 20:00 GMT with vulnerable places such as Wells Quay, Blakeney and Salthouses most at risk at this time.

 

But the surge is expected to proceed down the east coast into Suffolk with Lowestoft, Southwold and surrounding marshes under threat around midnight. High water levels are expected in the early hours on Friday at Harwich, Parkeston Quay and points south. Severe flood warnings have been issued by the Environment Agency which means a potential risk to life is a factor unless precautions are taken. People who have been warned of severe flooding should put into action their flood plan by getting their belongings to a place of safety and ensuring they have any medication they need, the agency said. If an evacuation becomes necessary the agency has asked people to prepare to leave early and to respond to instructions from emergency services staff including the police. "We do not want everyone leaving for our emergency centres or relatives inland at the same time as this is likely to clog roads and make travel difficult," a spokesman said.

 

The threat of severe weather is already affecting some businesses and a few schools. Gail Kingston who runs the ferry across the River Ouse at King's Lynn, said she has decided not to run the service because of high winds and deteriorating weather. "We have put the boat up securely for the day but will be in operation again on Friday," she said. Police in Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex are on alert to help the Environment Agency in an emergency period expected to last about 36 hours. Norfolk's deputy Chief Constable Charlie Hall said: "A multi-agency co-ordinating group has been convened twice to ensure appropriate plans and resources are in place. "The group is planning for potential disruption for a prolonged period of up to 36 hours and households in those affected areas should be mindful of this." He said affected communities would be kept up to date on developments and the public "should be on the alert for any further warnings from the Environment Agency".

 

Police in Suffolk are contacting owners of vulnerable properties to provide details of the action that needs to be taken. A leaflet containing key information has been produced and is being handed out. "Precautionary evacuation of properties in these areas is being recommended. Rest centres are being established and the location of these will be available in due course," a spokesperson said.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-25228834

 

Norfolk Police:

 

5 December 2013

 

The Environment Agency has this morning issued a number of severe flood warnings and flood warnings for a number of coastal locations in Norfolk. For the past 24 hours agencies in Norfolk, including emergency services and all local authorities, have been working with the Environment Agency to put well-rehearsed contingency plans in place to respond to the flood risk and protect those communities affected.

 

The public should be on the alert for any further warnings from the Environment Agency. Any households directly affected will be contacted in person, in due course, according to their local flood management plan. It is anticipated disruption is likely to last for 36 hours and local communities will be kept updated throughout.

 

Locations currently identified as likely to be most affected are on the east coast, the south town area of Great Yarmouth, in North Norfolk, Walcott, Salthouse, Wells Quay and Blakeney and the north-west Norfolk coast from King’s Lynn to Hunstanton. People in these locations should call the Environment Agency’s Floodline on 0845 988 1188 for further information.

 

Norfolk’s Deputy Chief Constable Charlie Hall, who is leading the multi-agency response, said: “Norfolk has tried and tested flood response plans which are currently in the process of being activated, in line with Environment Agency advice. “A multi-agency co-ordinating group has been convened twice to ensure appropriate plans and resources are in place. “The group is planning for potential disruption for a prolonged period of up to 36 hours and households in those affected areas should be mindful of this.â€

 

For further information tune in or log on to local media outlets or follow @norfolkpoliceLink to an external website #floodaware #norfolk on Twitter or visit the Environment Agency website.

 

 

floodaware Twitter feed:

 

#floodaware feed, homes in Wells along East Quay, Main Quay and Freeman Street will be evacuated by 4pm

 

 

(I think it's a retweet?)

Edited December 5, 2013 by Coast

[Habsish]

Webcams for our region if you have not already found them.

http://www.norfolklive.org/cameras.html

[Coast]

Here's the lovely sunrise from earlier in this article and they have copied Grace's comments!!

 

The Thames Barrier will be closed tonight to protect London from floods as the east coast braces for the biggest tidal surge for 30 years. Forecasters have warned that gale force winds, large waves and high tides could cause chaos across the east of the UK. They said sea levels could reach the heights seen during the devastating floods of 1953 - but insisted London's Thames estuary defences mean the capital is well shielded. The 1953 floods left 307 people dead and 40,000 homeless.

 

 

Shepherd's warning: a spectacular sunrise could be seen over the Thames this morning. (Picture:@TowerRNLI/Twitter)

 

Gale force winds are already battering much of northern England and Scotland, with gusts of over 100mph recorded in some areas. The storm is expected to move south during the course of the day and tonight. An estimated 30,000 properties could be flooded as a result of the tidal surge, the Environment Agency warned.

 

"We will be closing the Thames Barrier on Thursday night to defend London," a spokesman said. "The Environment Agency is monitoring the situation closely, working alongside partners including the emergency services, Met Office and local authorities. Teams are out on the ground checking that flood defences and barriers are in good working order, monitoring sea levels and issuing flood warnings."

 

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/thames-barrier-to-close-as-london-braces-for-gales-and-worst-tidal-surge-for-30-years-8984922.html

[2810lollypop]

All our Christmas decorations are now all over our garden . Santa is now upside down ! The snowman has decided to call into next door & our tree looks like it's had 1 to many ! Putting things into perspective thou my thoughts are with the rest of the country in this awful weather & I hope they stay safe xx

[Coast]

All our Christmas decorations are now all over our garden . Santa is now upside down ! The snowman has decided to call into next door & our tree looks like it's had 1 to many ! 

 

Is this because of the wind or has someone thrown a tantrum?! Flat calm here in Mid-Sussex.

[Keraunic]

Here is Southwold about 15 minutes ago. Looks a tad choppy. My sister works at the hospital there. Wonder if they will have to evacuate. That'll take some doing.

Can't get any images from Felixstowe ATM.

[Steve C]

Here is Southwold about 15 minutes ago. Looks a tad choppy. My sister works at the hospital there. Wonder if they will have to evacuate. That'll take some doing.

Can't get any images from Felixstowe ATM.

Hi Grace,

 

Have you seen that the Ipswich Quay is under a severe flood warning now?

Edited December 5, 2013 by Steve C

[Coast]

Does this effect any members from our region? (I'll guess you will know by now if it does?)

 

Flood evacuation warnings for Snettisham, Heacham and Hunstanton

 

West Norfolk council and the Environment Agency have issued precautionary evacuation notices to around 400 properties before this evening’s high tide.

 

 

High water is expected around 7.30pm on the coast. The expected 5.8m tide is likely to be up to 1m higher because of a north-westerly gale and low pressure weather system. A council spokeswoman said the affected properties were mainly caravans and chalets sited immediately behind the sea defences. “We think it’s about 400 properties affected, but most of them will be empty, so the number of people affected is a lot less than that, probably less than half,†she said.

 

Affected properties are off Beach Road and at Shepherd’s Port, at Snettisham; Heacham North and South beaches; Jubilee Road, Heacham; and South Beach and Seagate roads, at Hunstanton

 

http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/flood_evacuation_warnings_for_snettisham_heacham_and_hunstanton_1_3077453

 

Lowestoft webcam:

 

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/suffolk/hi/people_and_places/newsid_9463000/9463805.stm

Edited December 5, 2013 by Coast

[SteveCoops]

Had a 30mph gust at 11:07 at home - might not sound much but it's the highest my weather station's ever recorded It's in my back garden so there are houses all around.

[hollowbaron]

I woke up with the Environment Agency making an automated recorded phone call to me this morning, warning of severe flood risk and to prepare for a possible evac.

 

I looked at their weather warning map and being in Jaywick, Essex I am about 1 min walk from the beach. I am well within their severe flood risk area.

 

Lets just hope the defences hold and there is no repeat of 1953.

Edited December 5, 2013 by hollowbaron

[Steve C]

Is this because of the wind or has someone thrown a tantrum?! Flat calm here in Mid-Sussex.

It's very near a proper gale here.

 

I think I'm going to be up and about at 1:30 tomorrow. Have got to see the surge in action. High tide here is anticipated to be 1.4M above the normal (spring tide)

 

Jaywick is being evacuated now.

[abruzzi spur]

To all members who live or have friends and family in the flood-threatened areas, take care and stay safe.  The warnings are very sobering.....

 

AS

[Coast]

I think I'm going to be up and about at 1:30 tomorrow. Have got to see the surge in action. High tide here is anticipated to be 1.4M above the normal (spring tide)

 

Depending on my sleep patterns, we have high tide at 00.02 tonight (tomorrow?) and it is a biggy at 7.80m. If the wind will let me, I might try for some long exposure shots. Unless of course I'm fast asleep!!! :lol: 

[ribster]

 

Can anyone confirm some of the points in this article?

 

 

http://www.heart.co.uk/norfolk/news/local/east-anglia-storm-surge-worst-30-years/

 

I believe the police are looking at evacuating 9000 homes in Norfolk, if that isn't already underway.

[chilly milly]

Thank you for that warning Coast.  We have family at Dersingham and Snettisham.  I don't think they will be affected, but it's good to have the warning.