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Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

ukmo at day 5 a tad more amplified than its chart from yesterdays 12z run. closer to ecm than gfs despite what some might see.

Thanks ba as I was beginning to think I was seeing something that wasn't there. There's some right old daft posts appearing backing this or that other model, the fact remains that all the models will chop and change from now till +0.
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

GFS brings back the attempt cold snap just outside the reliable time frame but then removes the 2nd more potent one in deep FI. Or am I getting confused.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013113012/UN144-21.GIF?30-17

 

UKMO 144 - not bad.

 

Poised nicely for down continued cold.

 

S

 

 

No. LP is already going over the top of the High and it's a toppler. Both GFS and UKMO are effectively showing the same outcome.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

My current opinion is that tonight's UKMO will probably be nearest to the mark- a 36-hour northerly with some potent low temperatures, cold enough for snow showers in most of the areas that get showery activity, but the northerly probably won't sustain for long enough to get much advance on showers affecting the usual coastal areas.  Perhaps north and west Wales will be most in the firing line for this one because of the likely westerly component to the wind direction.  I think the ECMWF might stick with its three-day northerly tonight but then back down tomorrow (either on the 00Z or 12Z) to showing a 36-hour northerly.  I have a feeling that the GFS is overdoing shortwave activity to the north and therefore being too dismissive of the northerly.

 

I think on the balance of evidence so far that is a very reasonable conclusion. I would love ECM to be right though and UKMO to show something similar tomorrow - the GFS is a very low probability outcome for me though.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Excellent UKMO at 120

 

Both GFS and UKMO end up pretty bad for cold lovers I think UKMO is slightly better with better amplification , but it's not great

The UKMO has gone from being excellent to bad rather quickly??
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

No. LP is already going over the top of the High and it's a toppler. Both GFS and UKMO are effectively showing the same outcome.

You sure? LP in Atlantic is digging quite a way south but not too sure if im being a bit optimistic. Its a hell of a lot better than GFS 144 chart.

Edited by bradythemole
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

If ecm, continues with It's theme,(prog) I'm going firmly with it please or offend,the gfs is atimes better rolled out in UK gold,alongside the other comedys...

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No. LP is already going over the top of the High and it's a toppler. Both GFS and UKMO are effectively showing the same outcome.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/how-to-read-computer-forecast-model-maps/19488

 

Rather than a one liner ian- why don't you edit the UKMO 144 map to show the jet stream - & show how its a toppler with the jet digging all the south in the central atlantic then recurving sharp North again?

 

S

You sure? LP in Atlantic is digging quite a way south but not too sure if im being a bit optimistic. Its a hell of a lot better than GFS 144 chart.

+1

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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

Whatever happens next weekend, the longer term prospects for cold are looking as poor as they can be with continuous charts like this at this sort of timeframe :

 

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013113012/UN144-21.GIF?30-17

 

UKMO 144 - not bad.

 

Poised nicely for down continued cold.

 

S

 

If that potential slider went our way there could be a nice snow event but the ridge would sink and we would need upstream developments for continued cold past any slider IMO. I know how you think now though, you think the slider would deepen into NW Europe forcing the pattern a little West and we get increased amplification behind with the ridge etc, am I right? Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Further to my post above, our problems BEGIN with the developing surface feature off the Eastern seaboard of the USA, see yesterdays post below as its exactly same for ALL MODELS, look towards there come Monday/Tuesday.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78508-model-output-discussion-18th-nov2013-12z-onwards/?p=2848668

 

Where this then tracks and how it develops will effect us downstream in subsequent days, i.e. Thursday through to next weekend. This is how it was viewed by the GFS 12z yesterday, look at the attachment.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78508-model-output-discussion-18th-nov2013-12z-onwards/?p=2848749

 

This may be a delay in us simply receiving to the coldest uppers or the GFS might be correct in its reasoning of the HP cell being hard to budge. All just on the border of FI right now, by tomorrow's Farming forecast we might know more, or it may have to wait until Monday or Tuesday. ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN!

 

Once again, the said surface feature hung around the Atlantic on this run and then decided it wanted to spoil the cold party and headed eventually by Sunday 8th December across the North of Scotland and on into Scandinavia. Well its only one run and all the different outputs have differing opinions on this feature, that's precisely why one minute the Northerly is on and the next, we're bathed in a surge of warmer uppers. Posted Image

 

TO BE CONTINUED.........................

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/how-to-read-computer-forecast-model-maps/19488

 

Rather than a one liner ian- why don't you edit the UKMO 144 map to show the jet stream - & show how its a toppler with the jet digging all the south in the central atlantic then recurving sharp North again?

 

S

+1

 

Steve, you need to admit a wrong call here.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013113012/UN144-21.GIF?30-17

 

The LP to the North of the High is going E/NE. The High is going to sink to Biscay and then it is going to lead to milder weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

This is what they call a glancing blow, is it just me or does the ukmo 12z look a bit wrong compared to the snowfest and bitter cold for northern uk next weekend on the latest met office update? if this verified it would all be over by friday night in the far east, much sooner further west, hope the pattern is backed west somewhat. I want blizzards and ice days, this just won't do..Posted Image

post-4783-0-89735700-1385830123_thumb.gi

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Steve, you need to admit a wrong call here.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013113012/UN144-21.GIF?30-17

 

The LP to the North of the High is going E/NE. The High is going to sink to Biscay and then it is going to lead to milder weather.

 

 

How can you say that? The low has disrupted from 120 to 144 and split energy with a shorwave slider likely probably giving snow on its Northern and Eastern flank. There after things are more uncertain.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Anybody heard that song of Aretha Franklins, now what's it called.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The future is uncertain and all respective models are struggling at a very early stage in terms of where FI is actually positioned right now, as shown by their respective ensembles. Simply put, not one person in this thread knows any more than the next person until this first surface feature is resolved. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf

I know its GFS and its FI but the strength of the vortex, causing a very strong jet streak and the anomaly forecasts (and they are just that) make me fear for anything sustained after next weekend cold snap. Mid December at moment looks un interesting to me if your looking for a lovely snowy seasonal output that is prolonged. (and I am!)

 

Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image

Edited by ChartViewer
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Ian your going top end up on the ignore list before much longer- considering you are an ex forecaster on here you cannot read a chart?-  the trough axis if facing east into a jet that's going SSE - then it will go south./ South east

 

Im sure the wider audience would correct you in saying its going to go SSE in the next chart with energy build NE behind it to take the ridge that way....

 

Correct.

 

 

I wish we could see a T168 UKMO chart but SM is 100% wrong.

 

No Ian, as ever I think you're wrong on this one. The UKMO 144 hrs chart is not a bad one. Look upstream, the shallow LP systems towards S Greenland are aligned completely differently for a start and further upstream is hardly reminiscent of raging zonality is it. Keep banging the zonal drum and I'm sure you'll come good eventually. What are we on now? 3 weeks and counting?

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham

I wish we could see a T168 UKMO chart but SM is 100% wrong.

well one of you'd wrong!
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Steve, you need to admit a wrong call here.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013113012/UN144-21.GIF?30-17

 

The LP to the North of the High is going E/NE. The High is going to sink to Biscay and then it is going to lead to milder weather.

 

 

Ian your going top end up on the ignore list before much longer- considering you are an ex forecaster on here you cannot read a chart?-  the trough axis if facing east into a jet that's going SSE - then it will go south./ South east

 

Im sure the wider audience would correct you in saying its going to go SSE in the next chart with energy build NE behind it to take the ridge that way....

behave yourself chaps, you're getting rather close to the line with the personal snipes...by all means debate the output, that's what this thread is all about....but there comes a time and place where it's best to agree to disagree and leave the 'personals' to 'pm'

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

Yes the UKMO has moved towards the ECM around the t96 range but still

much less amplified and therefore the pattern soon flattens out although

as Steve say the t144 chart shows some promise.

The GFS 06z run was so out of kilter with its own ens that I wonder if

it has done so again with the 12z operational. If the ECM sticks to its

guns tonight then maybe with the UKMO moving in that direction it

could well be one to watch afterall. If not then a half way house

situation will probably result.

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