Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[Jimmyh]

Not sure if you could call it an Indian Summer in Dec garbagebags, but I think the important point to make is any anomolously high temperatures should be confined to a relatively small number of areas next week, primarily those to the north and east of high ground.  That said, temperatures do look set to be above average across much of Scotland, Ireland, west Wales and western England early next week, but the farther east you go the colder it gets, perhaps to a point where some parts of the extreme east are on the cold side...even without the aid of fog.  Later next week there are hints even on the 06GFS that the flow will back east of south, meaning the colder air gets advected farther west and brings and end to any localised Indian Summer...

 

 

Talk of an indian summer is completely baffling to me nowhere is suggesting mid to high teens!!!!!

[Frosty.]

Anyone here from the northern half of scotland looks like getting a good covering of snow on thurs / fri as frequent snow showers flood south from the arctic, the cold air lingers across ne scotland through saturday with rain, sleet or snow depending on elevation on the Gfs 06z but elsewhere it turns less cold. The cold and snow is only half the story though because there is going to be a spell of very windy weather with storm force gusts across parts of the north in the transition from the chilly westerly flow to bitter arctic NW'ly /  Northerly gales.

Edited December 3, 2013 by Frosty.

[forecaster]

The scottish ski resorts have never really been a viable or reliable skiing destination anyway.  Yes they have periods of good snow but there is no way i would pre book my skiing holiday there months in advance.  Just too unreliable to say the least.

 

I often thought that myself, but they seem to have done pretty well for themselves in some years, proving me wrong. 

[Gavin Hannah]

Scottish skiing tends to be at its best Jan - May. However, the Alps they are not. The two best periods recently were Winter 09/10 and winter 10/11.  Last two years have been hit and miss pre xmas and decent post xmas.

Edited December 3, 2013 by IBTHToThoseShortwaves

[shedhead]

Talk of an indian summer is completely baffling to me nowhere is suggesting mid to high teens!!!!!

Firstly no one has mentioned high teens and to be fair no one has seriously suggested Indian Summer in Dec. However, given the predicted synoptics, unseasonally warm temps in the MID TEENS are possible LOCALLY to the NORTH and EAST of high ground early next week.  Which is all that has actually been said. 

[radiohead]

Perturbation 19 on the 06Z GEFS is worth taking a look at.

 

About a fifth of the members go for an interesting/cold looking FI.

[Joe Levy]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=188&y=177 (South West England)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=256&y=3 (Northern England)

 

In addition to the spread in 850 temps in a few days that I mentioned earlier, more significantly for long term trends is the shift towards a more blocked outlook and some significantly cold runs later in the set. One or two runs bring back cold 850 temps quicker than others, so based on the spread, there are many options available still but plenty of interest in the run up to Christmas at this stage.

[bobbydog]

Perturbation 19 on the 06Z GEFS is worth taking a look at.

 

About a fifth of the members go for an interesting/cold looking FI.

 

yeah, i'd go with that!

 

 

though P6 might be better!-

 

 

Edited December 3, 2013 by bobbydog

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z mean @ T+144 hours shows high pressure in control, every 6z perturbation at that range has the uk under generally anticyclonic benign conditions......so, no sign today of a return to zonality, we could end up looking east/se for our weather in the weeks ahead.

[Troubleatmill]

Looking at this mornings charts its clear to see that tha this weekends cold snap will be just that, a short brief affair, although positively Arctic like for NE Scotland. For me i think this set up is quite good as at moment the Continent is still relitively mild or nor biting cold anyway so any easterly incursion would deliver dryer air but not necessarily bitter air. This will change from the weekend due to the deep low dive bombing into Estonia and then through to western Russia, opening the flood gates for cold air to sink south. Then we need the High to develop and build Northward, even if only to stop the cold air to the east being shunting away further east initially.

 

As it stands the only way to cold air is from the North...ok in spring but winter we want more option lol!

Edited December 3, 2013 by Arron B

[Tim Bland]

Does anyone have a link to the 06z spagetti ensebles as the NW link appears to be down

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

 

Thanks in advance

[Ali1977]

P19 Would be epic, very cold, longevity and lots of precip off the North sea all falling as snow from T192 ish..

 

Not too many showing this scenario though.

[Troubleatmill]

Does anyone have a link to the 06z spagetti ensebles as the NW link appears to be down

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

 

Thanks in advance

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsenseur.html Lots of agreement Tim

Edited December 3, 2013 by Arron B

[Methuselah]

That's a Jackson Pollock original, isn't it?

[Summer Sun]

The met office are now hinting at the potential for something colder in the south and east just after mid December

 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 18 Dec 2013 to Wednesday 1 Jan 2014:

 

Generally unsettled, particularly towards the north and northwest of the UK, with the best of any drier and brighter conditions further south and southeast. Temperatures look to be around normal, although there is the potential for colder than average temperatures across the south and east during the start of the period.

 

One to keep an eye on especially after Ian's update this morning

[Frosty.]

That's a Jackson Pollock original, isn't it?

no it looks fake to me

[Troubleatmill]

That's a Jackson Pollock original, isn't it?

Hahaha! howdu Guess! one of the best!!

[garbagebags]

The scottish ski resorts have never really been a viable or reliable skiing destination anyway.  Yes they have periods of good snow but there is no way i would pre book my skiing holiday there months in advance.  Just too unreliable to say the least.

You mean to say you don't like skiing down ice and rocks?  

Nah in all seriousness, I see your point. They are great if you live in Scotland and can go when conditions are good. But no way would I go unless they were great conditions.

[Troubleatmill]

no it looks fake to me

Been done again i think Frosty still looking for that Gold Watch like the trotters

[shedhead]

That's a Jackson Pollock original, isn't it?

Is that a euphemism...

[Frosty.]

  still looking for that Gold Watch like the trotters

Me too...this time next year we'll be

 

I'm really liking the growing chances of a colder european pattern becoming established as we head towards christmas.

[Gavin Hannah]

Me too...this time next year we'll be I'm really liking the growing chances of a colder european pattern becoming established as we head towards christmas.

Well, the 90s this aint, and i refuse to belive recent winters were flukes and one offs that just happened to arrive like busses at the same time lol.

[stratty]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsenseur.html Lots of agreement Tim

Always did like the Mr Men books when younger!

 

(actually come to think of it............. still do!)

 

sums up what could happen I suppose!

Edited December 3, 2013 by stratty

[Troubleatmill]

Me too...this time next year we'll be

 

I'm really liking the growing chances of a colder european pattern becoming established as we head towards christmas.

 

Yes me too Frosty, bit by bit things look to be falling into place for it, would be fantastic in time for the Festive season wouldnt it! Fingers crossed hey!

[Frosty.]

Me too...this time next year we'll be.......

 

I'm really liking the growing chances of a colder european pattern becoming established as we head towards christmas.

I'm looking for that pot of gold Beasterly from the East