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Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

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But sticking with ukmo means we can't look more than a week ahead - BORING!

I just trawled through the 00z and 12z gfs op for this thurs/fri/sat from mid last week onwards. To give it credit is ludicrous. It's like thanking Switzerland for helping us win WWII ! Ukmo was the best model and even then, is early efforts when it saw the timescale were not great. The ens means have proved the best guidance on this. as with the previous cold shot, ECM was too amplified (slow off the eastern seaboard) and gfs too flat and quick. just a note that gem op, having picked the general pattern earliest, dumped the northerly first but then went uber flat. The fact that we have ECM, gem and jma all heading the same way should give confidence that this is the direction the nwp will head over the next few days. Will something then change to alter the direction of travel? Perhaps but then that's the beauty of all this.

And btm, I that think things would get interesting before Xmas if the easterly drift is still in place by mid month.

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Just a quick question. Does the UKMO have any plans to extend their outlook(to Jo Public) to say 192hrs?With all the technology they have it would be great if they would extend their model accordingly. Even then, it would be less than what ECM and GFS do now but it would be nice to compare the 3 main models at a slightly longer range. Apologies if wrong thread and please put in appropriate one if this is not the one!!

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But sticking with ukmo means we can't look more than a week ahead - BORING!

I just trawled through the 00z and 12z gfs op for this thurs/fri/sat from mid last week onwards. To give it credit is ludicrous. It's like thanking Switzerland for helping us win WWII ! Ukmo was the best model and even then, is early efforts when it saw the timescale were not great. The ens means have proved the best guidance on this. as with the previous cold shot, ECM was too amplified (slow off the eastern seaboard) and gfs too flat and quick. just a note that gem op, having picked the general pattern earliest, dumped the northerly first but then went uber flat. The fact that we have ECM, gem and jma all heading the same way should give confidence that this is the direction the nwp will head over the next few days. Will something then change to alter the direction of travel? Perhaps but then that's the beauty of all this.

And btm, I that think things would get interesting before Xmas if the easterly drift is still in place by mid month.

My point was aimed at the new members who get slightly carried away and confused with the eye candy in fi.I also said its good for looking at trends and good to look at even if not at all reliablePosted Image

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Gee whiz, that's one long southerly draw at t+192 on the 12z ECM, all the way form Morocco and the Canary Islands if I'm not mistaken. Though ECM does have a tendency to over amplify the upper flow at times.

 

Really need to see either Atlantic troughing/upper energy divert further SE into SW Europe, or Atlantic troughing to stall/amplify out west and allow height rises north across the UK while cold pooling to the E and NE moves SW over northern Europe - if we are to have any hope of getting an easterly. Hints in F.I. of this perhaps happening, but it's a long road, with the flow upstream perhaps or perhaps not playing ball. 

 

If only the models were as good at predicting easterlies as they are northerlies!

Edited by Nick F

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Good ole ECM 3rd time lucky I hope. Ensembles are out, not bad, not bad at all. Always nice to see the grid dropped a level to capture a cheeky -10 run :)

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Compared with yesterday's forecast the NAO looks like going negative as we head towards the middle of December if today's run is anything to go by. Something worth keeping an eye on as this could suggest a blocked Atlantic.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

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Just a quick question. Does the UKMO have any plans to extend their outlook(to Jo Public) to say 192hrs?With all the technology they have it would be great if they would extend their model accordingly. Even then, it would be less than what ECM and GFS do now but it would be nice to compare the 3 main models at a slightly longer range. Apologies if wrong thread and please put in appropriate one if this is not the one!!

The UKMO operational goes upto 168hrs, we only get to see upto 144hrs though, the reasons for that are beyond me! I'm not sure cost wise how much this would add to their budget if they went out to say 240hrs like the ECM or even 192hrs like the JMA. Even if they did extend it I doubt it would be open for public view.

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But sticking with ukmo means we can't look more than a week ahead - BORING!

I just trawled through the 00z and 12z gfs op for this thurs/fri/sat from mid last week onwards. To give it credit is ludicrous. It's like thanking Switzerland for helping us win WWII ! Ukmo was the best model and even then, is early efforts when it saw the timescale were not great. The ens means have proved the best guidance on this. as with the previous cold shot, ECM was too amplified (slow off the eastern seaboard) and gfs too flat and quick. just a note that gem op, having picked the general pattern earliest, dumped the northerly first but then went uber flat. The fact that we have ECM, gem and jma all heading the same way should give confidence that this is the direction the nwp will head over the next few days. Will something then change to alter the direction of travel? Perhaps but then that's the beauty of all this.

And btm, I that think things would get interesting before Xmas if the easterly drift is still in place by mid month.

 

 

15TH Dec CFS, Should please the eye BA, As for faith I know, I know, But it's there in a Cold wash of Winter tsunami.

 

Posted Image

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A really striking back-end windfield there about to hit Scotland.

 

Look at the gradient. A severe warning for Scotland if that worked out as progged.

 

Posted Image

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Maybe the NASA model has picked out a new trend at just 120 hrs.Posted Image

 

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Just a quick question. Does the UKMO have any plans to extend their outlook(to Jo Public) to say 192hrs?With all the technology they have it would be great if they would extend their model accordingly. Even then, it would be less than what ECM and GFS do now but it would be nice to compare the 3 main models at a slightly longer range. Apologies if wrong thread and please put in appropriate one if this is not the one!!

 

 

I think if it did our opinion of it would be changed significantly. I mean even the GFS would not be so persistent with it's opposition to blocking as it would have 240 less hours to be wrong! 

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Yikes for Scotland and then into parts of North Sea coasts, even more so for Denmark, Holland, north Germany.

 

A real vicious storm.

 

Posted Image

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Look out for the Maps for 13/14 December.

 

best regards

Steve

 

Stunning write up Steve - thank you!

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The UKMO operational goes upto 168hrs, we only get to see upto 144hrs though, the reasons for that are beyond me! I'm not sure cost wise how much this would add to their budget if they went out to say 240hrs like the ECM or even 192hrs like the JMA. Even if they did extend it I doubt it would be open for public view.

Thanks Nick. Suppose with all the cuts over last few years it sort of makes sense but it would be nice if they could show the world globally how good they are as in the Long Run if they proved to be successful it might bring its own  financial rewards

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Powerful jet-streak . If this were to hit London, we'd have a Red Alert out!

 

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Slightly better amplification than the 12z with energy going a little more NE than just E but not sure it will be enough as yet

 

Posted Image

Edited by Mucka

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Slightly better amplification than the 12z with energy going a little more NE than just E but not sure it will be enough as yet

 

Posted Image

 

Wow! I think northern coast of mainland Europe could be in a spot of trouble with flooding! :(

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Thanks for the comments ( around 2 hours for the post)

Anyway- changes afoot on the GFS- Major- the jet looks like going over the Scandi low as opposed to under it this time around....

 

It will alter the post 192 projections - but possibly still to flat for a big easterly....

 

S

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18Z showing an ever so slight upgrade with the cold shot.  Slightly further west with the cold uppers, but the differences are so minuscule, it will hardly be noticeable.

Looks like the the cold shot will last two days max (three at a push) starting with some stormy weather for the north of scotland bringing blizzard conditions especially to the high ground.

The -5 uppers start leaving the UK the early hours of sat morning. 

Edited by IBTHToThoseShortwaves

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80+mph gusts possible for northern areas early Thursday with blizzard conditions possible on high ground.

 

Posted Image

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GFS 18hrs run is certainly moving towards the ECM here, we await the low moving east across Canada now to help sharpen the down stream trough, please GFS don't mess around!

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Yikes for Scotland and then into parts of North Sea coasts, even more so for Denmark, Holland, north Germany.

 

A real vicious storm.

 

Posted Image

 

GFS a few days ago did to some extent projected a rather tightly packed isobar low pressure system but was toned down but now even the ECM has toned the low up quite a bit. 

 

Once again, another Northerly looking more sorry for itself with any ridging is so half hearted it may not of even bothered trying but due to the strength of those winds, we actually could get some pretty cold air heading our way but it be those winds during  Thursday which may cause the most disruption, certainly one to keep an eye on. 

 

Brief window for convective snow showers in places so if your in one of those areas in the firing line for snow showers, then enjoy them whilst it lasts is the main message. 

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12z NAEFS showing strong hints of a block to our E/NE but perhaps not far enough north for the golden gem. South Easterly rather than easterly?

post-12721-0-66601300-1386022356_thumb.jpost-12721-0-08349200-1386022367_thumb.j

Nevertheless, the trend continues though.

Edited by AWD

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