Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[phil nw.]

surely people can chat about an easterly even if it doesnt come off. Its been showing for a bit now and i know things change on every run thats what makes it interesting even if its a bit headachy at times but talks about surely shouldnt be for the moaning thread everybody can post in there if it doesnt come off.

Indeed,if it's in the outputs then it's up for discussion.

[Snowman.]

Whatever will Nick Sussex make of the ECM??

Will it or won't it?

 

It will, negatively tilted retrogression to GL as well.

 

Looking good in far FI but can it stay like that?

 

The thing is that the building of high pressure starts in semi-reliable its just the in-between that we need to focused on.

[Frosty.]

Looking good on the Ecm 12z op within the reliable timeframe, the brief arctic blast will plunge down through the uk during thursday to bring a cold night and an even colder icy feeling friday and saturday, snow showers briefly to areas bordering the irish sea, some streaming through the cheshire gap but a swift transfer of the snow showers to the eastern side of the uk with western and central areas becoming largely fine and frosty, the most frequent snow showers generally across the far north & east of scotland. During friday the N'ly gales ease down and the snow showers leave the mainland behind but i'm more interested now on how the next few weeks will shape up, there is a chance of a much colder and long lasting blocked pattern as we head towards christmas with very cold air heading in from the east. 

[legritter]

Its not a staight forward case of the Met office coming on board IF the ECM shows a possible easterly setting up over the following  runs ,on their data and charts that we dont see If an easterly is possible going by their data they will gradually ease it into the extended outlook as the days go on .Yes easterlies resulting from a descent high to our n/east dont happen much but with the right conditions can deliver big time .And going by tonights charts and other data i would say theres a fair chance of a scandy or northern europe high setting up .Take a long look at the monthly outlook from today ,and basically after 15 days they will not commit to anything ,We can only use the modells as a tool not a crystal ball ,ITs one hell of an Atmosphere up there with things going on we have little Knowledge on ,although we are starting to learn in this modern age with computers .so taking ECM and to some extent GFS They are Sniffing at something ,so we can discuss the possibilitys of an easterly because its there in the output .And this is only Day 2 ,Bring out the STellas .

[chris55]

What page number are we on people???? Oh.......lols

[Cloud 10]

What page number are we on people???? Oh.......lols

 

Lets see what it looks like by page 78/79....

[Gaz1985]

JMA showing the cold getting into Scotland, N Ireland and Northern England on Thursday

 

 

Everywhere cold on Friday

 

 

Coldest air gone by Saturday

 

 

Ends with high pressure moving into Scandinavia and for the meantime we are mildish compared with above

 

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Gibby]

Hi everyone. Here's tonight's report from the 12 noon outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday December 3rd 2013.

 

All models tonight show High pressure over Southern Britain slipping South towards midweek as a cold front slips slowly South  over the North tomorrow and the South too by midweek with a little rain. Behind it comes clearer air for a time before another cold front brings a more marked drop in temperature especially over Northern and Eastern parts when some wintry showers could occur later on Thursday and Friday with some snowfall over Scotland. The drier air over the South and West then is shown to extend to all areas at the weekend as High pressure builds across Southern Britain for a time before beginning to decline SE early next week.

 

GFS tonight shows mild SW winds taking hold slowly next week as High pressure continues to feed away SE. Innitially dry and rather cloudy weather will be likely before Low pressure gradually moves in closer to Western and NW areas bringing cloud and rain in on occasions with strong winds at times. Winds back more South or SE late in the run and with pressure rising to the NE things may begin to turn rather colder after the term of the run.

 

UKMO closes it's run on Sunday with High pressure having moved away to the SE with a milder SW flow covering all areas with mild and rather cloudy weather likely to affect most parts early next week clearing the remains of the weekend chill away from the SE.

 

GEM tonight shows High pressure over Northern France slipping SE then North towards Scandinavia late in the run. After some milder weather with a fresh Southerly flow and maybe a little rain in the West and NW rather colder air develops from the SE as winds back towards East around risen pressure over Scandinavia.

 

NAVGEM tonight shows High pressure to the SE with a milder SW flow becoming established across the UK early next week with cloud and a little rain in the NW at times.

 

ECM again tonight shows pressure rising strongly over Scandinavia by the middle of next week with cold air never really leaving the South where frost and fog patches could continue well into next week. The Northwest will see the milder conditions while winds backing ESE by the middle of next week would likely feed cold continental air NW across the South with clearer skies and further frost likely.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a one day colder blip before a spell of milder weather with SW winds is shown by many members. Things then do trend slightly colder as we move into next week. Rainfall remains in short supply across Southern Britain.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow driving SE down the North Sea later in the week ahead of a realignment of the flow to run NE across the Atlantic and over the UK later in the period.

 

In Summary tonight all models show a cold snap lasting a day or so giving way to a milder period with SW winds and a little rain, most likely towards the North and West early next week. The next phase of interest looks like developing later next week as there are some signs of pressure wanting to rise over Scandinavia and if this trend develops then we may have to start looking East for a cold spell later next week. The one thing of note it looks highly unlikely that there will be any significant rain in the next two weeks across Southern or Eastern Britain.

[Zenarcher]

Taking a look at what the models say for Thursday and Friday this week,

 

A deep area of low pressure moves into the UK, the models are still unsure on its deepness and exact track.

 

 

NAVGEM and the GFS go for the deepest but the UKMO and several other models go for strong winds but something less severe.

 

The image below shows the difference between the GFS and UKMO at 72 hours there we see disagreement on deepness and the track,

 

 

First onto the wind, early Thursday morning average wind speeds reach over 60mph over Western parts of Scotland,

 

 

Through the early afternoon and later on by 3pm very strong winds move across the Northern Britain. Gusts are likely to reach 60 to 70mph but in exposed parts 80mph could be possible.

 

 

 

The winds will ease on Thursday night and into Friday morning.

 

Now onto the possible wintry weather but I would say at this range its not to be taken serious just yet but still its worth a look,

 

Thursday morning as the strong winds move in Northern parts of Scotland see snow,

 

 

Temperatures will drop though out the day quickly on Thursday morning minimum temps are 1 to -1c,

 

 

But by Thursday evening the Northern parts of the UK see -2 to -5c and and the Scottish Highlands -7c.

 

 

As the cold air moves further South wintry weather could reach parts of England, Wales and Ireland on Thursday evening,

 

 

Then through Thursday night into Friday morning snow over Northern Scotland and could possibly continue to be around parts of England and Wales,

 

 

Friday night is looking very cold through out the UK with -11c in the Scottish Highlands and -1c to -6c being widespread through inland parts,

 

 

I believe we are in for a very interesting week of weather ahead with stormy weather and very cold temperatures with a risk of snow all to play for.

Edited December 2, 2013 by weathermaster

[cooling climate]

From what I have seen model wise the last few days regarding the northerly

cold snap later this week is that the UKMO model has been the most

consistent. The ECM has been way to amplified and the GFS as flat as a

pancake and to progressive although it now looks as if it may have been

nearer the mark in that respect.

When a looming cold spell is only 5 or 6 days out and the models still

differ from one another I think it is fair to say no one model is going to

be right.

The ECM should always be treated with some scepticism when it shows a much

more amplified pattern than the other two models and the GFS like wise bhen

it shows a much more progressive and flatter pattern. As for the UKMO model

I would say 90% of the time if it isn't on board forget it.

[Winter Monsoon]

You may be correct but believe me you woudnt want a winter anything like 62-63 trust me!!

 

 

It would be mighty interesting.

 

Would this help to get a scandi high?

 

Goes right upto 30mb level almost to 20mb level.

Edited December 2, 2013 by Winter Monsoon

[Frosty.]

You may be correct but believe me you woudnt want a winter anything like 62-63 trust me!!

nah, give me 1947 it was snowier than 63

 

Let's hope the Ecm really has latched on to this new trend for an increasingly blocked and eventually much colder pattern, get the cold in place and wait for the siberian express and powder snow.

Edited December 2, 2013 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble also shows the high building towards Scandinavia to what extent it does remains to be seen

 

[Frosty.]

Thankfully there are some GEFS 12z perturbations which are more bullish about keeping the arctic blast going strong throughout friday with snow showers and strong Northerly winds across the eastern side of the uk, would be nice to squeeze an extra day out of this.

[bluearmy]

It would be mighty interesting.

 

Would this help to get a scandi high?

 

 

Goes right upto 30mb level almost to 20mb level.

certainly looks good - i suspect its trop led. i note the deep fi warming at the top is still modelled. i suspect by xmas we may begin to see some serious action in the upper strat. whether it downwells to the trop is another matter.

 

fwiw, i think the action on the scandi ridge is too far east over the next 10 /14 days to have our name on it. i am yet to see convincing evidence that any low heights can make it through the blocking to our south to advect the cold west. the cold pool looks to far east to manage to get here without any forcing. that would leave us with a chilly easterly drift - really not a surprise given the extended ecm ens for london over the past few days and exeter's updates. remember what stewart used to say - ' the trend is your friend'.  that led us to the northerly and then to the eastward progression of the flow. then onto the scandi ridge. not sure where the trend is to follow this. it looks pretty strong to me and could easily sit over most of nw europe for some considerable time.  there will always be curveballs thrown in by the ops but i guess the secret is to spot when they are feasible. hope i'm wrong on the cold pool but it may well be beyond mid month before we see some movement west of those deep cold uppers. in the meantime, europe will slowly head into the freezer and without any strong flow over the uk, we could easily do so to - certainly an inversion possible.  would like to see the canadian vortex and its lobes back off a bit further west to allow the pattern to retrogress further. no evidence thats likely though.

[Newberryone]

Looking good on the Ecm 12z op within the reliable timeframe, the brief arctic blast will plunge down through the uk during thursday to bring a cold night and an even colder icy feeling friday and saturday, snow showers briefly to areas bordering the irish sea, some streaming through the cheshire gap but a swift transfer of the snow showers to the eastern side of the uk with western and central areas becoming largely fine and frosty, the most frequent snow showers generally across the far north & east of scotland. During friday the N'ly gales ease down and the snow showers leave the mainland behind but i'm more interested now on how the next few weeks will shape up, there is a chance of a much colder and long lasting blocked pattern as we head towards christmas with very cold air heading in from the east. 

 

This may sound crazy, but I think we are on the cusp of something that may turn out similar to 1962/63. I reckon that around christmas will be the turning point and massive Northern blocking will establish itself at first over Scandi and linger around Iceland and ridge into Greenland too. It probably won't be enough to 'rival' 62/63, but I definitely think that something is on the cards. The trend is to definitely perk up the heights towards the NE, and for the polar vortex to be placed over N America, which will amplify the heights towards Greenland and the arctic. Some may dispute me now, but I'd appreciate a little patience through December, then we will see how things pan out. We shall see.

Having had a rather stressful kind of day (not weather related btw) I'm certainly buoyed up by a certain number of posts on here tonight. Despite the fact we here in Ireland are less likely to enjoy or indeed benefit from a possible cold feed of easterlies off the continent than you guys, anything would be better than the now highly anticipated milder interlude predicted from Sun-Tues inclusive.

 

 

I am so willing this chart to be the initial step in something really special down the line.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean keeps it on the cold side even when the nw'ly arctic blast blows itself out later on friday, friday looks bitterly cold with residual snow showers only slowly dying out in the east, then a fine, very cold and frosty weekend. Into next week, most of the uk retains surface cold with high pressure becoming centred to the southeast of the uk bringing a gentle southeasterly continental drift with widespread night frosts and sunny days, perhaps the air will be too dry for much in the way of fog, only the far northwest of the BI showing a significant rise in temps as a moister sw'ly flow develops but for many it looks dry, fine and rather cold beyond next weekend.

[bradymk]

certainly looks good - i suspect its trop led. i note the deep fi warming at the top is still modelled. i suspect by xmas we may begin to see some serious action in the upper strat. whether it downwells to the trop is another matter.

 

fwiw, i think the action on the scandi ridge is too far east over the next 10 /14 days to have our name on it. i am yet to see convincing evidence that any low heights can make it through the blocking to our south to advect the cold west. the cold pool looks to far east to manage to get here without any forcing. that would leave us with a chilly easterly drift - really not a surprise given the extended ecm ens for london over the past few days and exeter's updates. remember what stewart used to say - ' the trend is your friend'.  that led us to the northerly and then to the eastward progression of the flow. then onto the scandi ridge. not sure where the trend is to follow this. it looks pretty strong to me and could easily sit over most of nw europe for some considerable time.  there will always be curveballs thrown in by the ops but i guess the secret is to spot when they are feasible. hope i'm wrong on the cold pool but it may well be beyond mid month before we see some movement west of those deep cold uppers. in the meantime, europe will slowly head into the freezer and without any strong flow over the uk, we could easily do so to - certainly an inversion possible.  would like to see the canadian vortex and its lobes back off a bit further west to allow the pattern to retrogress further. no evidence thats likely though.

Brilliant post BA   From the last few days, I think an anticyclonic south easterly/easterly feed is looking the most likely outcome even though GFS is still toying with milder SW. ECM Ens have been pretty solid on this continental feed though. The cold pool will be too far east at this stage however even with quite high uppers, this flow can deliver v low surface temps. ECM 12z det for example. +6 uppers on the 11th but surface temperatures a chilly max of 2c and overcast for B'ham. http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Birmingham/long.html    Hopefully we can get something to help trigger that cold pool west as we move towards xmas period.

Edited December 2, 2013 by bradythemole

[Cloud 10]

Tonight's NOAA 8-14 dayer looking promising for height rises to our east/northeast.

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

From what I have seen model wise the last few days regarding the northerlycold snap later this week is that the UKMO model has been the mostconsistent. The ECM has been way to amplified and the GFS as flat as apancake and to progressive although it now looks as if it may have beennearer the mark in that respect.When a looming cold spell is only 5 or 6 days out and the models stilldiffer from one another I think it is fair to say no one model is going tobe right.The ECM should always be treated with some scepticism when it shows a muchmore amplified pattern than the other two models and the GFS like wise bhenit shows a much more progressive and flatter pattern. As for the UKMO modelI would say 90% of the time if it isn't on board forget it.

Indeed I would say this northerly has yet again been dropped more or less completely , or at least in comparison to what it was showing a few days ago , this wkends cold plunge is as short as last wkends brief fling with the northerly wind, and yet absolutely know one said a thing about it last wkend , mainly because it wasn't bigged up by the models in the days leading up to it . But it's been yet again another lesson for the ones that bought into the fickle predictions made by the models , but when one isn't backing it , nothing is a dead cert. All the stick the gfs gets for been rubbish but in reality this has been the best by a country mile in nailing this latest fiasco . As for the easterly . Believe it when it actually comes , not when the ECM is showing it at t192 . Edited December 2, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Hotspur62]

Very wary of ECM at moment especially as we are near the 1st anniversary of the Beasterly that never happened. Need to see more runs consistently show an Easterly develop and would like UKMO to jump onboard within their reliable timescale before I get too carried away lol!!I agree with BA that we in UK will be too far West for us to get impacted on(IF the Easterly does occur).However,i will be watching with great interest over next 5 days to see if heights continue to rise on the models once this weeks Northerly is out of the way!!.Looks like Denmark and Germany could get some serious winds by end of week(sorry off topic).One thing is that at least it looks mainly dry (especially in South) over next 2 weeks.

[swfc]

For any newcomers id say stick with the ukmo when looking for a cold spell be it via the north or east.The other models out past the 200hr mark are great to look at and indeed do pick up trends ete esp in the nh charts.To avoid heartache and stress stick to the shorter time frames if its cold and snow your after.Look how the upcoming cold snap has panned out from five days ago!!

[Weather Boy]

For any newcomers id say stick with the ukmo when looking for a cold spell be it via the north or east.The other models out past the 200hr mark are great to look at and indeed do pick up trends ete esp in the nh charts.To avoid heartache and stress stick to the shorter time frames if its cold and snow your after.Look how the upcoming cold snap has panned out from five days ago!!

Excellent advice. With last year's failed eagerly only the ukmo was reluctant to be suckered in. The GFS was as guilty as the ECM, although it was the first to drop it like a stone. Many of us, including me, thought 2 v. 1 meant that ukmo was in the wrong but it stuck to it's guns and was right. That's my recollection anyway.

[phil nw.]

A couple of recent posts have been moved here-

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/

 

If views are not directly related to current charts then please use this other thread.

 

Thanks all.

[MisfitDog3]

For anyone playing Netweather 'forum bingo' this week has been great. I just need someone to post "I've always thought GEM is underrated" and I'm shouting 'House'......