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Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

As is frequently said, look at the BIGGER picture. Yes, other locations in the globe will be experiencing colder weather but the ECM's later stages are only going to lead to an easterly. I can put up with Greece getting some snow as long as we are also in the firing line!

Regarding an earlier post, i agree Mucka. The GFS never modeled the upstream pattern correctly at all. It has been lauded as winner by some purely through default, i.e. not showing the northerly but it was so reluctant to accept changes.

Thank you for the verification stats, It backs up our suspicions as the GFS is in 4th position, with the ECM easily first. I was actually a bit harsh on the GEM yesterday as the stats suggest that it is only slightly behind the UKMO

 

Why is it always the same though? "if the easterly isn't shown on the ECM it's game over" then the GEM shows promise and so does the ECM and it's all aboard the easterly express! If the ECM hadn't shown an easterly it would not have changed that much. This potential easterly will take time to evolve and obviously it could go up in smoke but there will be many trials and tribulations before anything is resolved, we can bet on that!

I'd personally back the GFS in FI over whatever the ECM shows, recent events have shown that people can no longer  cast off the GFS so easily for it's 'eastward bias", the ECM is the joke now if anything.

Look at the FACTS! they CLEARLY show otherwise!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just gone through the GEFS 12z mean looking to see if there is any obvious mild weather looming next week, pleasantly surprised to see no mild days in the entire run, average max temps about 5-7 celsius, some rather colder and generally settled for the south and east under high pressure influence with the north & west gradually turning more unsettled and windier but temperatures no higher than average, for the south and east there would probably be persistent low level cold air and with a continental drift becoming established with widespread frosts and some fog patches.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

I don't care what the ECM shows past +120 more so anything from the east, I still see us remaining on the mild side of any such block and tbh I don't buy height rises over Scandinavia at this moment in time For me more of the same as we've been seeing over the last week or two for the foreseeable, with a slow decline SE of heights.

Just gone through the GEFS 12z mean looking to see if there is any obvious mild weather looming next week, pleasantly surprised to see no mild days in the entire run, average max temps about 5-7 celsius, some rather colder and generally settled for the south and east under high pressure influence with the north & west gradually turning more unsettled and windier but temperatures no higher than average, for the south and east there would probably be persistent low level cold air and with a continental drift becoming established with widespread frosts and some fog patches.

Indeed frosty. I don't buy a very mild evolution either.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

t240 sees the high just starting to edge up towards Greenland

 

 Posted Image

 

850's remain average to above average

 

Posted Image

That chunk of Polar Vortex might pay us a visit though
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Posted
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt

I'm yet to see this Easterly that everyone else seems to be seeing?? Posted Image 
After Sat all I see is a high pressure over the UK and average to above average temps. Even that stretches to the end of FI.

 

Maybe we best stick to the facts here, and not set-ups that aren't even shown, yet alone in the reliable.

Edited by garbagebags
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Whatever will Nick Sussex make of the ECM??

Posted Image

Posted Image

Will it or won't it?

That's an interesting one the ECM looks a bit different from the others in terms of the easterly, pressure rising quickly helped by that flood of warm southerlies towards eastern Greenland and a chunk of PV that could be ejected south into Russia, the energy from the troughing heading ese towards the Med. Still a very good chart, overall some nice outputs but still well into the future.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I don't care what the ECM shows past +120 more so anything from the east, I still see us remaining on the mild side of any such block and tbh I don't buy height rises over Scandinavia at this moment in time For me more of the same as we've been seeing over the last week or two for the foreseeable, with a slow decline SE of heights.

Indeed frosty. I don't buy a very mild evolution either.

Yep SI..not a blowtorch or hairdryer to be seenPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I'm yet to see this Easterly that everyone else seems to be seeing?? Posted Image 

After Sat all I see is a high pressure over the UK and above average temps. Even that stretches to the end of FI.

 

Maybe we best stick to the facts here, and not set-ups that aren't even shown, yet alone in the reliable.

 

You cannot be serious?

 

Take a look at the ECM, which has been pointing toward the possibility of an Easterly for a couple of runs now.

 

Then there are the GEFS, look at P2Posted Image

P6

Posted Image

 

Among others. The signs are there, you can't simply write off what is being shown?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

I'm yet to see this Easterly that everyone else seems to be seeing?? Posted Image 

After Sat all I see is a high pressure over the UK and average to above average temps. Even that stretches to the end of FI.

 

Maybe we best stick to the facts here, and not set-ups that aren't even shown, yet alone in the reliable.

 

 

Well the fact is ECM does show a slack SE flow and if that 240 chart were to verify we would have fairly decent chances of getting some cold uppers over in a couple of days or so. 

But that said, yes it is FI and no it does not show a stonking Easterly and yes the support is tenuous and no nobody should get carried away and yes we have seen many Easterlies fail and no the UKMO is not yet on board and yes I am going to keep going on like this but no not really...

 

Posted Image

 

Let's just enjoy the ride and try to keep expectations in check - that's what you're really saying. Posted Image

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Early Christmas delivery from ECM, that would be nice ha,

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt

Well the fact is ECM does show a slack SE flow and if that 240 chart were to verify we would have fairly decent chances of getting some cold uppers over in a couple of days or so. 

But that said, yes it is FI and no it does not show a stonking Easterly and yes the support is tenuous and no nobody should get carried away and yes we have seen many Easterlies fail and no the UKMO is not yet on board and yes I am going to keep going on like this but no not really...

 

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Let's just enjoy the ride and try to keep expectations in check - that's what you're really saying. Posted Image

 

Precisely. I just think that, at this stage, this easterly chat would be better suited to the ramping thread as the chance of it coming of are....well.....

Of course I don't run this site and that is only my opinion but if a "newbie" was to stumble across this page they very well could assume that this easterly is happening the way some people are going on. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The signs are there for an eastily around day ten, not a million miles away.  This Northerly was picked up before then, and although not as potent as irst forecast its still happening.  I think something is on the cards, just how much is the problem.  Anything from the meto about it today?

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Posted
  • Location: North East Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves & thunderstorms
  • Location: North East Essex

We are now coming closer to a crucial period for December, where we could see an Easterly resulting from a Scandinavian high as suggested in the later frames of some models (still a long shot though) or a return to much milder weather!

Although much rarer and more difficult to achieve, Scandinavian highs can produce some pretty memorable cold weather. I have posted some charts from 5th to 7th February 1991. Produced some very cold uppers over the South East of England in particular.

Don't want to get the coldies hopes up just yet, as this could well be a long shot! But you just can't tell what the weather can do in future!!

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Precisely. I just think that, at this stage, this easterly chat would be better suited to the ramping thread as the chance of it coming of are....well.....Of course I don't run this site and that is only my opinion but if a "newbie" was to stumble across this page they very well could assume that this easterly is happening the way some people are going on.

Nope, the ramping thread is the best place for ramping rather than discussion about charts. I think its interesting as there is a degree of consistency between this morning and this evenings runs, plus back up from JMA, a GEM and a number of GEFS. Ignore the detail, just look at the big picture at day 10. It's far from certain that there will be an easterly, but it would be a brave person who put a big bet against it.
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Precisely. I just think that, at this stage, this easterly chat would be better suited to the ramping thread as the chance of it coming of are....well.....

Of course I don't run this site and that is only my opinion but if a "newbie" was to stumble across this page they very well could assume that this easterly is happening the way some people are going on. 

 

Once you get to this point shown here

Posted Image

Is where you will eventually get a continental flow of some sorts as the trough to our east becomes cut off as the UK and Russia ridges bridge over the top, from there you are guaranteed a block to the north east. Just depends how much of an influence it has. 

By your statement then we shouldn't be commenting on anything beyond day 5................

What's the fun in that Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Early Christmas delivery from ECM, that would be nice ha,

 

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Remember at Xmas my mother loving Fry's Turkish Delight.....That was full of... Eastern promise.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Great to see continuity from the Ecm, the 12z ends beautifully poised as a few frames later the icy cold blues to the southeast would be on our doorstep, let's hope for an early christmas cracker.Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

surely people can chat about an easterly even if it doesnt come off. Its been showing for a bit now and i know things change on every run thats what makes it interesting even if its a bit headachy at times but talks about surely shouldnt be for the moaning thread everybody can post in there if it doesnt come off.

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

Well model fatigue might be setting in already and it December the 2nd Posted Image

 

The ECM seems hell bent on giving us something to chase this winter, but support from other models like the JMA and GEM is heartening as they are both toying with the idea of a easterly.

 

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2013120212/J192-21.GIF?02-12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013120212/gem-0-240.png?12

 

Not many off the GFS ensembles support and easterly only a handfull. The best thing about the output at the moment is that we are not in a set pattern for winter so nothing can be written off at the moment, the polar vortex has not set up shop yet. There have certainly been worse starts to model watching.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I would be intrigued to know what the UKMO make of tonights model trends? it's really not that much of a leap of faith to get to an easterly from  that mid-Atlantic troughing.

 

Anytime you get a big dig of energy heading south to the west of the UK, you're always liable to see pressure rising to its east, the problem with easterlies is that the ensembles in particular can be very misleading as they prefer to spill energy over the top rather than undercut.

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