Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[Nick L]

Anyone seen this? 

 

 

UK Outlook for Thursday 5 Dec 2013 to Saturday 14 Dec 2013:

A band of rain will spread southwards during Thursday, giving snow over high ground in Scotland and northern England. Clearer, colder and windy conditions will follow from the northwest with showers, these falling as snow from northern England northwards. Showers may turn wintry in the south later on Thursday and during Friday but the south and southwest should see the driest weather. Temperatures are likely to be below normal and feel colder still in the wind. Little change is expected during the weekend, with unsettled and cold weather continuing, and snow for northern Britain in particular. Thereafter, milder conditions are likely to spread from the west across much of the UK, with some more settled weather over the south.

Updated: 1155 on Sat 30 Nov 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_weather.html

 

I don't think you can ask for a much better text forecast than that for this time of year. Nice to know the met are on-board for this cold spell. 

 

It's not particularly model related though, is it?

 

There are other threads for discussions of Met Office forecasts and the like.

[Snowman.]

Slowly.

 

 

Sending less through also a little system south is keeping the high perked up.

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013113012/gfsnh-0-90.png?12

 

Looking better again- Canadian High now 1035 - same as ECM...

 

S

[EML Network]

I can understand why those along NE facing coasts, NW Facing coasts and Scotland are getting excited about the snow prospects for 6-9 days time, but I struggle to see why anyone else other than those who live on elevated areas in lets say N .Wales and Midlands ...are getting excited. 

 

I have not really seen a single run that would give the VAST majority of us anything decent in terms of snowfall. 

 

It's well known that a direct northerly or NNW feed creates a wish bone effect and snow showers simply run along the West and East coasts and tend not to penetrate very far inland. 

 

Although it's a slightly IMBY I'm still looking into Mid December and hoping something shows up that would provide a decent spell of cold weather that would deliver most of us snow and not just the usual places that always get it regardless of what direction it comes in (I.E Scotland , the NE and NW Facing coasts).

 

Here's a good example shown by Netweather's Own charts ..

 

 

I don't understand why so many people seem to think that somehow on the day itself things will somehow change and (for example) someone living in the South East gets disappointed; when they don't get any snowfall.

feel free to delete this post it's it's not model related enough, It's just that every year people fall into the same trap, get their hopes up and then feel let down when they don't get snow. 

80% of us will not see snow falling from the sky by next Monday from this sort of set up

[Barry12]

Comparison between the big three at 96 hours

 

 

Given this is the UKMO and ECM 00z.

[cooling climate]

Wasn't that the mid-December 2009 cold spell which promoted a Greenland High? If memory serves me right, we didn't get a SSW until early Jan 2010...

It was the Dec of 2010. The winter of 2009/10 had one of the most negative AO's

on record.

[Barry12]

I can understand why those along NE facing coasts, NW Facing coasts and Scotland are getting excited about the snow prospects for 6-9 days time, but I struggle to see why anyone else other than those who live on elevated areas in lets say N .Wales and Midlands ...are getting excited.

 

The precipitation charts are useless before 24 hours out, so why would anyone worry about what they show now?

Edited November 30, 2013 by Barry95

[Cloud 10]

Slowly.

 

 

Sending less through also a little system south is keeping the high perked up.

 

A bit better by 96 hrs,but not quite in the ballpark.

[bluearmy]

still positive tilt on the depression and the energy forced through. looked like it might go the right way. lets see what transpires from here.

[Methuselah]

Any chance of sticking to what today's charts are indicating? What transpired in 1946, '62, 2009 and 2010 is largely immaterial...

[Barry12]

GFS and UKMO 12z at 96

 

Edited November 30, 2013 by Barry95

[MrSunshine]

I can understand why those along NE facing coasts, NW Facing coasts and Scotland are getting excited about the snow prospects for 6-9 days time, but I struggle to see why anyone else other than those who live on elevated areas in lets say N .Wales and Midlands ...are getting excited. 

 

I have not really seen a single run that would give the VAST majority of us anything decent in terms of snowfall. 

 

It's well known that a direct northerly or NNW feed creates a wish bone effect and snow showers simply run along the West and East coasts and tend not to penetrate very far inland. 

 

Although it's a slightly IMBY I'm still looking into Mid December and hoping something shows up that would provide a decent spell of cold weather that would deliver most of us snow and not just the usual places that always get it regardless of what direction it comes in (I.E Scotland , the NE and NW Facing coasts).

 

Here's a good example shown by Netweather's Own charts ..

 

 

I don't understand why so many people seem to think that somehow on the day itself things will somehow change and (for example) someone living in the South East gets disappointed; when they don't get any snowfall.

feel free to delete this post it's it's not model related enough, It's just that every year people fall into the same trap, get their hopes up and then feel let down when they don't get snow. 

80% of us will not see snow falling from the sky by next Monday from this sort of set up

 

Maybe where you live you won't see any snow but for where I live (North West England), Scotland & Northern Ireland this is the perfect setup for snow, I for one can't wait.

[Mucka]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013113012/gfsnh-0-90.png?12

 

Looking better again- Canadian High now 1035 - same as ECM...

 

S

 

I think it's still wrong though. It just looks far too fast and the way the high ridges back in toward the UK despite the forcing from the trough from 72h just doesn't look right at all and anyway I think the pattern is already a little too far East by this point. Sticking my neck out I know but that's the way it looks to me. Can't say how amplified the ridge will be even if we correct all that but we would certainly get a better blast with the pattern further West and a deeper trough than GFS output today.

Edited November 30, 2013 by Mucka

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

lets hope gfs is wrong,it looks awful....

[MR EXTREMES]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013113012/gfsnh-0-90.png?12 Looking better again- Canadian High now 1035 - same as ECM... S

No sausage but come on models give us a holy grail.The ukmo and gfs looking near enough identical come on models

[terrier]

think we can say the ecm is wrong gfs and ukmo now look like agreeing. Think ecm is wrong again im afraid.

[Chris.R]

It's not particularly model related though, is it?

 

There are other threads for discussions of Met Office forecasts and the like.

No, I apologise,, I just thought it might get more notice, this being a busier thread. Delete if you like. 

[SMU]

UKMO 120

 

http://gifs.gifbin.com/2074yu4sw2.gif

 

CMON

[cold snap]

We don't even get to 144 on the GFS

It's game over for cold lovers ,GFS doesn't want to know ,

[Mucka]

UKMO much more how I would expect the trough to develop, 

 

 

If I had a reputation I would stake it on GFS being wrong. 

Edited November 30, 2013 by Mucka

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

GFS gives the two fingers to any cold snap/spell,

That low is faster and flatter on the 12z run.

Beginning to lose faith at the moment...

Its actually worse than the 06z lol.

Edited November 30, 2013 by happy days

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013113012/UN120-21.GIF?30-17

Actual 120 UKMO-

 

Not the best...S 

[Barry12]

We don't even get to 144 on the GFSIt's game over for cold lovers ,GFS doesn't want to know ,

 

So because the GFS is bad that means it's game over?

[radiohead]

We don't even get to 144 on the GFS It's game over for cold lovers ,GFS doesn't want to know ,

Check the UKMO at T120 though.

[Gaz1985]

lets hope gfs is wrong,it looks awful....

 

Still the chance of snowfall