Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[doctormog]

I'll take that. It's currently doing quite well in the verification stats race too.Does anyone have the verification stats at hand? when are they updated?

Here are the day 5 verification stats http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz5.htmlEdit: I meant to add that the GEM run is shown as the CMC on these charts. Edited December 2, 2013 by doctormog

[weather_it_will]

Could be a pretty significant wind event going by some of these postage stamps from the 12z GFS, some really intense members on offer showing damaging wind potential for much of northern and central Britain. 

 

Scope for gusts towards 80mph but we're still 3 days away, lots to keep tabs on!

 

 

GFS always over does deep lows. The wind will be about half as strong as what GFS is showing.

[nick sussex]

Best chart of the winter so far, shame its at 240hrs and the GEM but if we get to this then get the ear muffs and gloves out!

 

 

You can see there the low beginning to develop a bulge at the bottom this means its beginning to lose some of its oomph, at 264hrs you'd see a shortwave being ejected se towards the Med as the low disrupts. That little area over eastern Greenland showing pressure rising and the tilt of the low becoming more negative.

 

Superb chart, anyway that's what we want to see!

 

[john mac]

Best chart of the winter so far, shame its at 240hrs and the GEM but if we get to this then get the ear muffs and gloves out!

 

gemnh-0-240.png

 

You can see there the low beginning to develop a bulge at the bottom this means its beginning to lose some of its oomph, at 264hrs you'd see a shortwave being ejected se towards the Med as the low disrupts. That little area over eastern Greenland showing pressure rising and the tilt of the low becoming more negative.

 

Superb chart, anyway that's what we want to see!

Bank that nick!!! Lol

What are thoughts with regards to how the models are handling this pattern?

[itsnowjoke]

Best chart of the winter so far, shame its at 240hrs and the GEM but if we get to this then get the ear muffs and gloves out!

 

gemnh-0-240.png

 

You can see there the low beginning to develop a bulge at the bottom this means its beginning to lose some of its oomph, at 264hrs you'd see a shortwave being ejected se towards the Med as the low disrupts. That little area over eastern Greenland showing pressure rising and the tilt of the low becoming more negative.

 

Superb chart, anyway that's what we want to see!

You wear earmuffs ? Sorry mods couldnt resist

[Liam J]

GFS always over does deep lows. The wind will be about half as strong as what GFS is showing.

 

Certainly enough confidence for the Met Office to issue early wind warnings for Thursday and also the ECM yesterday was showing mean speeds of 45-50kts (52-57mph). 

[nick sussex]

Bank that nick!!! LolWhat are thoughts with regards to how the models are handling this pattern?

The dramas only just beginning with a possible easterly! But there is very good agreement on that mid Atlantic dig of energy, after that its really very uncertain. There are no guarantees, the troughing might be too far east. If people thought the on and off northerly was stressful then they've seen nothing yet! But not to be overly dramatic this is it folks, we don't have the luxury of different routes to cold, either the easterly verifies or its going to be a rather drab couple of weeks.

[doctormog]

Certainly enough confidence for the Met Office to issue early wind warnings for Thursday and also the ECM yesterday was showing mean speeds of 45-50kts (52-57mph).

If anything the ECM 12z op run looks more potent for the same period up in this neck of the woods http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif

[Matty M]

Certainly enough confidence for the Met Office to issue early wind warnings for Thursday and also the ECM yesterday was showing mean speeds of 45-50kts (52-57mph). 

Certainly.

 

ECMWF has it deeper than yesterday again, it moves & develops so rapidly it's quite frightening.

 

Just a weak unclosed low near 1010hPa at midday Wednesday southeast of Greenland.

 

Before bombing over 35hPa in 24hrs to be position off the east Scottish coast at midday Thursday.

 

 

 

[Mucka]

So was the gfs leading the way all along? Now I know it flip flopped about a little bit. But to me it never bought into the ECM way of thinking. Now it could just be me but I think that the gfs model is more reliable than many make out. And for what it's worth I think the ECM will follow tonight's gfs and ukmo model.

 

No and it is not just me saying that, the NOAA  have repeatedly criticised it. GFS had no idea what was going on regarding the ridge/trough, it didn't even have a Northerly at all half the time with everything from flat HP dominated to deep LP sat over the UK. The only thing you could say GFS got right was the Eastward shift once it finally caught up with the Euros. The best of the models otherwise has been UKMO but of course we don't get see past 144h where the big inconsistencies really start to show up.

 

T96 and ECM still a little more amplified with less energy escaping East over the top (another thing GFS has been catching up on or maybe it will be right - remains to be seen)

 

Like I've said before, don't assume bias in the charts or one model is more accurate, just analyse them on face value.

Edited December 2, 2013 by Mucka

[john mac]

Just got a funny feeling that this is going to go the way of the ECM!!

[bradymk]

120 ECM best chart of the 12z's by far

[karlos1983]

Is that Heights I see Building to the NE........

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM in agreement with the other models now coldest air moves away for just about all on Saturday

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Matty M]

The biggest difference i can see comparing last nights ECMWF with today's is a shift east in the ridge in over UK/Atlantic but

more notably that development of the high near the pole.

 

Looks like as usual, the best tool for judging the 7-10 day patterns if often the ECMWF Ensemble mean. Which

gives the best indication of what to expect 90% of the time. Occasionally failing in certain quick changing patterns.

 

Last night's 12z./

 

 

Today's

Edited December 2, 2013 by Matty M

[Summer Sun]

t144 sees the high starting to extend further NE 850's continue to rise though surface temperatures could still be low for many

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Mucka]

One difference between ECM and UKMO is that the MetO model is slower developing the second low and doesn't phase them by 120h as the ECM does. 

 

 

 

ECM at 144 still providing the most favourable output for a Scandi high to develop among the big 3  

 

[nick sussex]

ECM 168hrs!

 

      

[Matty M]

It does appear now that is the pattern we will be hoping for in the day 7-14 period.

 

WAA over Europe into the Arctic attempting to split the PV and pull in an easterly per GEM.

 

It is a long game but could be fruitful, a lot of angst ahead for model watcher though

 

[bradymk]

Great chart at 168hrs from ECM. Sticking with its scandi high (not surprised), next few charts will be nice viewing!! 

[Ali1977]

This potential eastily, would be much better than a 2 day northerly, let's see what the meto say about the possibilities over the next day or 2.

[Summer Sun]

+8 850's at t168 for some SE remains the coldest spot in the UK, scandi high continues to build

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Summer Sun

[IDO]

To be honest, the ECM story is the cold heading into America:

Its the case that severe cold is seeping south nearly within the reliable and again its passing us by. Uppers +8 in the UK; to our east -12 and, the US, well amazing cold.

Edited December 2, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[Matty M]

Great chart at 168hrs from ECM. Sticking with its scandi high (not surprised), next few charts will be nice viewing!! 

It's a long process getting an easterly from that position! A lot of things have to go well for a nice placed Scandy High to set up which is dragging in cold uppers.

 

It is nice to see the vortex getting stretched though but i would urge extreme caution.

[Summer Sun]

t192 sees the milder air over all the UK the

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Summer Sun