Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[NorthernRab]

Another essentially mild run from GFS 12z after the cold blip at the weekend with a terrific vortex firmly lodged over Greenland and N Canada as well as High Pressure to the E / SE of the UK recipe for mild SWly's and not much chance of any proper cold.

 

mighty vortex!

 

 

 

"Terrific vortex" - "mighty vortex" ? I can't help but think that the charts you've posted do not merit such language?

Edited December 2, 2013 by NorthernRab

[MR EXTREMES]

its also worth noting that the most likely cause of the near miss is the strong jet going over the alantic block then shifting the low pressure east southeast so out friend in the states have done us no favours but if there had been a decent block over in the northern states the maybe the jet stream position may have aided us better.

still the experts have said this year is not going to be following recent years and I think the jet profile plus vortex profile is showing this.

 

but I don't know if I can handle anymore lol 

and to be honest there is hope the charts are toying with scandi pressure rise and a lot of movement with arctic highs playing musical chairs we still have this pacific ridge which don't look like going anywhere fast and possibly moving into a more favourable are possibly.

Edited December 2, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[gottolovethisweather]

UKMO has the coldest air only affecting Scotland and the Eastern side of England now by Saturday the coldest air is in Eastern Europe

 

 

+4 uppers very close to the south by Sunday

 

 

 

Its all your fault Gavin as well, do you possess the official patent of my "elephant in the room" the GAVIN's MLB High.

 

Whatever, still a couple of runs yet before we are can officially declare a non-event scenario, which it clearly ISN'T up towards the North-east where it certainly will be an EVENT.

 

Saturday onwards still up in the air, I feel.

Edited December 2, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[bradymk]

The northerly snap or should I call it blip regardless of a slightly better start on the GFS goes downhill fast and to be honest is an insult to a northerly toppler!

 

Thereafter theres strong support now for that dig of energy into the mid Atlantic, for coldies out there I think we've got all our eggs in one basket here because given the expected location of the PV in the outlook its really easterly or bust. I don't see any other route to cold bar that.

 

So its a case of seeing where exactly that troughing sets up, the normally scenario with this type of route to an easterly is that shortwaves forming off the mother trough will run anti-clockwise round this and then eventually as pressure begins to rise towards the ne especially near Svalbard you'll have a small change in the axis of the trough, eventually one shortwave will run se and the energy will shear away from the mother trough allowing pressure to build west towards the UK.

 

That's now operation salvage December, its either an easterly or mild mush, not much middle ground here I expect.

Yes Nick not much of a middle ground, either going to be cold easterly feed or a mild SW feed. We did have good support from the ENS this morning for the Scandi high and easterly feed post day 10 so lets hope for a similar story this evening but the northerly that once looked v potent now looks a glance for the majority of the UK but still cold enough for snow showers in most parts although it will be mainly dry. All part of the fun of this weather model business though, plenty more of this to come until March 

Edited December 2, 2013 by bradythemole

[Weather Wizard]

Doesn't look too bad for me, going to Budapest from Wednesday till Monday and the latest gfs looks like I might get some serious snow action especially Saturday/Sunday :-)

Edited December 2, 2013 by Weather wizard

[Nick F]

I think the 12z GFS is often the most progressive of the 4 daily runs, so coldies shouldn't throw in the towel in just yet with regards to lack of scandi block building with the easterlies. Though the 12z UKMO seems to be heading down the same route. Will ECM save the day by keeping the Atlantic southwesterlies at bay?

 

12z GFS maxes on Friday look a good few degrees or more lower than the 00z/06z, so subtle changes in how cold the models think the cold surface airmass will be. Dew points look to be 0C or below everywhere 00z Friday onwards, so what falls out the sky will most likely be snow, despite temperatures rising to a couple of degrees or more above freezing. Though snow showers look to ease and fade as we head through Friday. Milder creeping back in from the northwest on Saturday, but could stay rather cold across central, southern and eastern England.

Edited December 2, 2013 by Nick F

[bradymk]

GEM goes with a strong scandi high and easterly feed moving in at 240, a long way out but improvement compared to GFS and UKMO, hopefully ECM follows. For those who say it is not fully out yet, http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=eur&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=180&fixhh=1&hh=240

 

Also, JMA best run of the 12z in terms of the northerly.

Edited December 2, 2013 by bradythemole

[igloo]

big changes on the gem this afternoon is that a scani HP maybe not the end of the world afterall

[MR EXTREMES]

 gem having ago at scandi block at t198

nav gem looks awful out into fi

jma northerly was better yesterday but today has shifted east.

so lets roll the ecm dice can we get a double 6 but even so after this episode its rather knife edge stuff.

 

the ecm certainly had some lovely charts this morning.

 

and then the gem comes up against the day after tomorrow storm in the alantic imagine if that under cut would be rather extreme.

Edited December 2, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[Frosty.]

I thought weather was always up in the air, initially at least, and don't blame the models for any downgrades, blame the weather itself but it won't care.

[radiohead]

12Z GEM ends on an encouraging note.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

12Z GEM ends on an encouraging note.

 

 

I don't know why people are so glum/doom laden and dismissive of anything wintry. The possibility (a good one at that) of a Scandi high and potential easterly has been there for a few days now?

[weatherguy]

Only in far FI is the Scandi block back again but it looks too weak against the mighty vortex!

 

 

 

I can only assume this is sarcasm...PV looking in a poor state there to be honest, almost cleaved into 2, while WAA continues up Scandanavia.  Hints of trough disruption over the UK also.

 

A lot of knee-jerking going on here anyway, will await the ECM which was still very good on its 00z run.

 

(One of these days I'll make a post that doesn't need editing 10 seconds after I write it!)

Edited December 2, 2013 by weatherguy

[gottolovethisweather]

I thought weather was always up in the air, initially at least, and don't blame the models for any downgrades, blame the weather itself but it won't care.

 

A distinct lack of UPPERS causing DOWNERS.    I best leave the room and its elephant behind, I will moderate myself and ban myself from posting for the rest of today.

[stodge]

Afternoon all

 

Probably going to be hugely unpopular but it's probably worth thinking about just how mild it might get next week. This was the record-breaking set up on December 11th 1994 when 17c was recorded;

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1994/Rrea00119941211.gif

 

This is what's being proposed for December 12th this year;

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24017.png

 

Some way away from anything record-breaking but it wouldn't need much to get the Foehn effect in some places (East Wales perhaps) which could see 15c as a possible number.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1920/Rrea00119201225.gif

 

And this was the set up for one of the warmest Christmas periods ever...back in 1920 !

[Purga]

Oh dear.. UKMO hopeless for cold, in fact we may not even notice the cool 'blip' in the south at all!

 

Done and dusted by 144hrs, fat lady clearing her throat

Nasty - let's see what ECM brings up - not holding my breath - LOL.

[Yarmy]

12Z GEM ends on an encouraging note.

 

 

 

I'll take that. It's currently doing quite well in the verification stats race too.

 

 

[terrier]

So was the gfs leading the way all along? Now I know it flip flopped about a little bit. But to me it never bought into the ECM way of thinking. Now it could just be me but I think that the gfs model is more reliable than many make out. And for what it's worth I think the ECM will follow tonight's gfs and ukmo model.

[Liam J]

Could be a pretty significant wind event going by some of these postage stamps from the 12z GFS, some really intense members on offer showing damaging wind potential for much of northern and central Britain. 

 

Scope for gusts towards 80mph but we're still 3 days away, lots to keep tabs on!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=66

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=72

Edited December 2, 2013 by Liam J

[Smiler1709]

I'd take a easterly over a northerly anyday of the week, couldn't care if this northerly fails. If the overall picture gives us a nice scandi high then more people would be happy. Plenty of potential in fi but as long as there showing it then we got hope.

[Frosty.]

The way I see it, if it's destined to turn mild, better for it to be in the run up to christmas and give the next cold spell time to hopefully evolve and arrive for the festive period, short term pain..long term gain, the models are glorified number crunchers but sometimes I get the feeling that some people think the models control the weather, nah it's other way round..

Edited December 2, 2013 by Frosty.

[CanadaAl]

 

This is what the models shown 4 years ago today for 18th of Dec 2009. All very much still to play for  

[Mark Bayley]

Quick scan of the ensembles and there's a few interesting solutions however most power the jet through, with high pressure pushed into Europe. The UK ends up mild, and unsettled. Still, the ECM is yet to show, and the GEM looks rather nice. At the moment, based on the models, and teleconects, i'd favour  the milder and unsettled option over something akin to the GEM and ECM 0z.

Edited December 2, 2013 by Mark Bayley

[SW Saltire]

I'll take that. It's currently doing quite well in the verification stats race too.

 

Does anyone have the verification stats at hand? when are they updated? 

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

The way I see it, if it's destined to turn mild, better for it to be in the run up to christmas and give the next cold spell time to hopefully evolve and arrive for the festive period, short term pain..long term gain, the models are glorified number crunchers but sometimes I get the feeling that some people think the models control the weather, nah it's other way round..

Yes Frosty mate i agree with you 100% im no expert but i beleive the models only predict the weather with the data they have at the specific times 0z,12z etc things can change so quickly