Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[MR EXTREMES]

as I said its being flattened from the northwest at t192 expect the next chart to be close to a sw flow.

but in all fairness it is trying to ridge into scandi but don't look like its going to win.

Edited December 1, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[Cheshire Freeze]

because the next low is moving over the top of our high.

but we shall see at t192

 

That next low you speak of is part of the mechanism for getting the Scandi ridge. The same principles RE ridging don't apply to Scandi height rises as they would to Greenland height rises.

[Ian Brown]

Urgh.

 

Part of the high has actually been sheared into Scandi as Steve has already pointed out.

 

Very low heights to the NW, hopefully the High can hang on to prevent zonality.

[Barry12]

game over for the 168 ecm no chance of getting heights into scandi

 

Are you sure?

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

 

still looks very chilly in my location, slight continental drift in the south!

[radiohead]

ECM and GFS are not hugely different at T192. Main difference being the ECM is further west at that point and angled better.

 

[Weathizard]

Looking at the vortex moving over Greenland if we miss out on Scandi heights with the next ridging I'm not sure we'll be so lucky as to get another chance for a while, looking like an ominous pressure drop around Southern Greenland.

[karlos1983]

That next low you speak of is part of the mechanism for getting the Scandi ridge. The same principles RE ridging don't apply to Scandi height rises as they would to Greenland height rises.

 

Hi Crew, It's basically WAA but over NW of Scandi, is that correct?

[Allseasons-Si]

ECM at t144

 

 

UKMO at t144

 

 

GFS not in agreement with the other 2

 

 

UKMO and ECM look in decent agreement with GFS on its own once more

They are both the ECM 144hrs SS

 

as for the northerly at the end of the week,all options are still on the table as far as i see it,will await the 12z tomorrow.

[nick sussex]

Northerly bus has just dropped of a load of disgruntled net weather members, next bus to depart is the easterly mystery tour!

 

Putting aside the shorter term disagreements even the GFS drops energy south into the Atlantic, this trend looks good now, the possible Scandi high now depends on where the energy goes from there.

[Snowman.]

Ridging remains strong near alaska and the eastern seaboard as well.

 

 

12z have been very decent in keeping the trend of anything but zonal.

[Ian Brown]

Day 9 and it's one for Greece/Turkey.

[Snowman.]

Very robust looking high.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

indeed I agree very robust looking high and placement is very important as nick says there is low heights dropping into the alantic and at 240 ecm I could stand corrected by a scandi high.

 

but it does look to be going into south east Europe which is not an ideal location.

Edited December 1, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[beng]

The later stages of the ECM are a mess, indicating a rapid thaw across Scandinavia. In reality I'm sure this is far too progressive.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

From t168 on ECM if you look at the build up, there is no chance of  a Scandi HP, no way.  Not saying its right, but that run will not produce a scandi HP with LP to our NW exerting too much pressure.

No sooner were we all saying ECM has it...it backs away a touch.  It ain't over but neither is an exceptional northerly nailed yet.  Yet again...a halfway house?

 

BFTP

Edited December 1, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Captain Shortwave]

Great chart this

In July 

[Snowman.]

Greece bathing in -8 to -10 uppers.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hi Crew, It's basically WAA but over NW of Scandi, is that correct?

 

Essentially what we're seeing here is a long draw SW'ly flow 'carve out' the Scandi HP whilst Atlantic troughing is forced to somewhat disrupt and send some energy digging SSE in the Atlantic. Enough energy goes into the N arm of the jet which pulls the HP further N&E whilst simultaneously enough energy heads SSE to stop the HP from sinking away (allied to already low heights across W of Russia and eastern Europe). The only way high pressure can build its momentum is to head E or NE whilst following the general LW pattern. Once a Scandi high forms, the jet will redistribute its energy, the more energy that heads S the more the high will back WNW with time. An even split and it'll remain in situ.

Edited December 1, 2013 by CreweCold

[MR EXTREMES]

well I stand correct the ecm 240 as steve suggested is epic with low pressure systems diving down into the alantic if any of them get into mid Europe we could have us and easterly down the line.

Edited December 1, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[Iceberg]

Single best chart from ECM tonight is the T192. The northerly has been pretty well covered and the attempt at an easterly I had written off tbh, 

However ECM finally gives a hint with a massively diving jet, leading to all the energy going mid atlantic and the under cut of cold air around the eastern side of the high, you should get a classic high retrogression.

 

I should add though that this is real straw clutching and only really shows how the models are fighting the pre=atmospheric set up.

[syed2878]

i thot todays the 1st dec and not friday the 6th deck? Oh and has all these charts verifyide? Because 1 or 2 posters seem to be patting ian brown on the back for something that hasn't happend yet, or r they just on a winde up? Although going by the gfs and ukmo it doesn't look inviting i awaight noaa's update to c where they placing gfs and ukmo.

[cooling climate]

The low heights that were over central Europe at t168 needed to

drop south instead of moving north hence no easterly as it cuts

off the high over the UK that has ridged ne from linking up with

the heigts in western Russia.

The t240 chart should be better though. Plenty of time for this

to change of course.

Not enough amps on this run so all the cold goes south.

Edited December 1, 2013 by cooling climate

[radiohead]

Greece bathing in -8 to -10 uppers.

 

 

 

I spot -16 uppers creeping into northern Texas....

[Iceni]

Not mod related but nice to see you back TEITS.

 

Winter wouldn't be winter without TEITS - seagulls and all    (and btw, I'm a firm believer in watching what wildlife is doing wrt weather - so this is not a dig).