Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[Summer Sun]

ECM at t144

 

 

UKMO at t144

 

 

GFS not in agreement with the other 2

 

 

UKMO and ECM look in decent agreement with GFS on its own once more

Edited December 1, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Barry12]

ECM 96h is very close to the GFS 12z, just a tad slower. UKMO on its own at the moment

 

 

UKMO & ECM identical @ 120 today- so we are more or less there now

 

Which one is it?

[SMU]

ECM @ 144 identical to the UKMO Downstream but a few upstream discrepancies-

 

However 850s @ day 3 of the cold.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120112/ECF0-144.GIF?01-0

 

Still -9c for England with -10c in Scotland....

 

Can we get enough orbit of the high to keep the -5c line in the SE at 168 as that the first step forward!S

Edited December 1, 2013 by Steve Murr

[fergieweather]

Yes, and Ian F did mention the threat of coastal flooding. Any thoughts from the Met Office on the potential for disruptive winds, Ian?

Yes it's been flagged over past 48 hrs repeatedly in briefings. Warnings under consideration once confidence reaches criteria.

[radiohead]

ECM T144 is similar to the UKMO but not quite as far east at that point.

 

Edited December 1, 2013 by radiohead

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

ECM is a lot better in the mid~term than UKMO. Perhaps there will be a mixture of the 2 in the end. Or there again we are talking 5 days away and anything can still happen. I think mild swerleys would be the outsider though.

[Barry12]

Two very cold days on the ECM, excluding Ireland

 

[cooling climate]

You could here a pin drop waiting for the t168 chart.

[Iceaxecrampon]

12Z a slight  downgrade in forms of ppn for the UK apart from The Cairngorms!

 

Low sweeps in below Iceland through the Faroes at 974mb deep over Sweden.

 

Possible battleground for the NW looks promising.

 

Ian

Edited December 1, 2013 by Iceaxecrampon

[Mucka]

Which one is it?

 

Mucka, on 01 Dec 2013 - 18:20, said:

ECM 96h is very close to the GFS 12z, just a tad slower. UKMO on its own at the moment

 

 

Steve Murr, on 01 Dec 2013 - 18:23, said:

UKMO & ECM identical @ 120 today- so we are more or less there now

 

Which one is it?

 

 

 

I suppose it could be both since they are different times but ECM is closer to GFS at 96h than UKMO in how far East it has moved the pattern(speed)

 

I would disagree with Steve that the ECM is identical to UKMO at 120h but he is probably talking in general terms , the UKMO is still a fair but further East and there are upstream differences too. 

GFS goes off on one with its Westward bias after 96h which accounts for the differences by 144h

Edited December 1, 2013 by Mucka

[snowice]

Two very cold days on the ECM, excluding Ireland

 

 

-8 uppers you mean including Ireland

[Summer Sun]

t168 has the high right over the UK

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

very cold in the south still at 168, maybe freezing fog and -10's, should be clear after a northerly

[Weathizard]

T168 looks decent in the mid term, without looking any further if we started at T168 I think it screams Scandi high

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120112/ECH1-168.GIF?01-0

 

Ridging into Scandi @ 168 with the -4c line just holding in kent-

 

S

[MR EXTREMES]

game over for the 168 ecm no chance of getting heights into scandi

[Barry12]

 

Two very cold days on the ECM, excluding Ireland

 

 

-8 uppers you mean including Ireland

 

 

I was talking about Saturday, not sure why you deleted the 2nd chart out of my quote...

 

Edited December 1, 2013 by Barry95

[snowstorm445]

Two very cold days on the ECM, excluding Ireland

 

Indeed, the cold air continues to be pushed eastward. Very brief window of opportunity across Ireland, although -8 uppers are still decent for this time of year.

Could be very chilly and potentially wintry across Scotland and Northern England this weekend.

[Cheshire Freeze]

game over for the 168 ecm no chance of getting heights into scandi

 

Urgh.

 

Part of the high has actually been sheared into Scandi as Steve has already pointed out.

[shotski]

game over for the 168 ecm no chance of getting heights into scandi

 

Why ?

[radiohead]

T168 looks decent in the mid term, without looking any further if we started at T168 I think it screams Scandi high

 

 

game over for the 168 ecm no chance of getting heights into scandi

 

Classic.

 

Perhaps we should wait for T192...looks more promising than the 12Z GFS at T168 anyway.

Edited December 1, 2013 by radiohead

[Cloud 10]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120112/ECH1-168.GIF?01-0

 

Ridging into Scandi @ 168 with the -4c line just holding in kent-

 

S

 

 

game over for the 168 ecm no chance of getting heights into scandi

 

Hmmm...who to believe?

[chris55]

A Scandi ridge forming looks more than possible IMO from the 168 chart

 

[MR EXTREMES]

because the next low is moving over the top of our high.

but we shall see at t192

[Snowman.]