Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[shedhead]

If I had to pick a run to highlight how the next 10 days is most likely to pan out then the 06 GFS would be it. So mostly dry and relatively mild (outside any foggy areas) until midweek, a short but sharp wintry blast late next week and into the weekend, then drier and colder with widespread frost for a time before milder weather returns once again. Whether we see the Atlantic kicking into full gear as we enter the middle third of Dec remains to be seen, but on balance I think it's probably more likely than not.

Tues - Mild

 

 

 

 

Fri - Cold

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sun - Frosty

 

 

A week Tuesday - milder

 

 

Two weeks time - unsettled Atlantic driven.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

Yes its different but this is an upgrade synoptically on the 00hrs run, the shortwave disagreement is just part of the puzzle, its also now the phasing upstream.  At least we've stopped the negative trend from the 00hrs run but still have the UKMO which disagrees with both the ECM and GFS. Lots of energy heading south into the mid Atlantic, I'm liking that trend!

Yes Nick and it's been awhile since I've ramped this morning I looked at the gfs and was a little worried looked at the ecm and bang I was crying with joy into my coco pops and was no longer thinking about Steve murrs sausage lol sausage high lol.Then the 6hr gfs was a delight to see and I agree it's a upgrade And getting close to a realistic time frame.And to be honest this could go in any direction but beautiful charts.

[damianslaw]

The GFS doesn't help itself in the simple fact it shows 4 updates each day compared to ECM's 2 and UKMO's 1 - consequently there is always much more room for error from run to run in its output, and for this reason it is the model I least follow.

 

On occasion UKMO does get the right pattern at 120-144hrs, but more often than not ECM outperforms UKMO at this time range, and more often than not, the UKMO follows ECM rather than the other way round.

 

This said, no certainty just how cold things will get by the end of next week, but all models are agreed that a marked cooldown will take place from the NW as we get to Thursday.

 

Thereafter - all eyes on the position of the PV and how energy off the eastern seaboard of USA interacts with the PV, there are indications provided the PV is positioned further west that such energy will phase with the PV and consequently there will be less forcing on the mid atlantic ridge which will then be allowed to build in situ and easily transfer across the country whilst at the same time we see heights building over scandi - there is every chance an easterly of sorts could develop by the middle of the month even with the strong PV provided as I say it stays in a more westerly position over Canada.

 

However, as others are suggesting a westerly/southwesterly milder feed could easily develop if the energy off the seaboard is allowed to move eastwards thanks to a less favourable positioned PV sinking heights into europe. This may not necessarily mean a protracted westerly mild spell, indeed if the aluetian high maintains its strength and position, a shortlived milder spell may ensue with an amplified mid atlantic high pattern once again quickly establishing itself.

 

Lots of options on the table - its a far cry from some of the starts to Decembers of the past, where the zonal mild train has had free reign.

[MR EXTREMES]

If I had to pick a run to highlight how the next 10 days is most likely to pan out then the 06 GFS would be it. So mostly dry and relatively mild (outside any foggy areas) until midweek, a short but sharp wintry blast late next week and into the weekend, then drier and colder with widespread frost for a time before milder weather returns once again. Whether we see the Atlantic kicking into full gear as we enter the middle third of Dec remains to be seen, but on balance I think it's probably more likely than not.

Tues - Mild

 

 

 

 

Fri - Cold

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sun - Frosty

 

 

A week Tuesday - milder

 

 

Two weeks time - unsettled Atlantic driven.

 

And of coarse this is only based on the gfs 6hr so in my thoughts are the gfs is certainly playing catch up.

Its inconsistencies have been shown in six hour time frames that's why I'd blend some of the gfs with the ecm and ukmo.

[Frosty.]

I wonder if this is the best we could hope for from the upcoming cold blast, taken from the GEFS 06z perturbations, most of them shunt the pattern quickly east but some look more robust.

[NorthernRab]

If I had to pick a run to highlight how the next 10 days is most likely to pan out then the 06 GFS would be it. 

 

Why the 06hz? Why not any of its other runs with their numerous different outcomes in FI?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

If I had to pick a run to highlight how the next 10 days is most likely to pan out then the 06 GFS would be it. So mostly dry and relatively mild (outside any foggy areas) until midweek, a short but sharp wintry blast late next week and into the weekend, then drier and colder with widespread frost for a time before milder weather returns once again. Whether we see the Atlantic kicking into full gear as we enter the middle third of Dec remains to be seen, but on balance I think it's probably more likely than not.

Tues - Mild

 

 

 

 

Fri - Cold

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sun - Frosty

 

 

A week Tuesday - milder

 

 

Two weeks time - unsettled Atlantic driven.

 

Why only the 6z shed? Why not last night? Or the ECM or UKMO's output either? It wont be too long again before we see a complete flip I suspect on one of the next two runs today GFS wise. FI is not to be taken seriously, it is from my interpretations over the last couple of years just a test and play around of what may or may not become a possible trend within a week or so's time. 

Edited November 30, 2013 by phil nw.
removed ot comments

[Frosty.]

GFS in 4th place..........  But often falls on deaf ears....

 

S

Why bother looking at the gfs steve if you despise it so much?

[Snowman.]

Some of the ensembles are also sniffing out an easterly. Here are 2 of the best ones.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=19&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=9&mode=0&carte=1

 

Looking through the members there is also a chance of some Arctic heights to build forcing the PV to either centre its self over Canada or Siberia.

 

Here are also 2 of the mildest runs.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=3&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=2&mode=0&carte=1

 

There's plenty in there for both coldies and mildies but high pressure is likely to stick with us and be the main driver of our weather.

Edited November 30, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[SMU]

Why bother looking at the gfs steve if you despise it so much?

Because you can learn its faults .....Plus it goes to 384 on 21 runs at 4 cycles a day so theres always some eye candy to look at!See everyone later for the 12s

Edited November 30, 2013 by Steve Murr

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Expecting a backtrack on the ECMWF 12Z, just not convinced and GFS is the main model

[Joe Levy]

Expecting a backtrack on the ECMWF 12Z, just not convinced and GFS is the main model

GFS is not the main model if we are going on verification stats. Look at some of the posts on the previous page, which show quite clearly that the ECM verifies better. That does not mean that it will this time for certain, but it's a fallacy to say that the GFS is the main model, when really we need to be looking at all the main models in conjunction with each other, as well as expert advice from the Met Office. Your expectations are without substantiation methinks.

[SE Blizzards]

Expecting a backtrack on the ECMWF 12Z, just not convinced and GFS is the main model

 

Can you please show me some statistics that back up your 'GFS is the main model' theory.

 

Thanks in advance.

[Ian Brown]

I want to reserve judgment on the possible cold blast until we have seen more runs, but I would agree with Shed with regard to the pattern after. All the models show a deepening of heights to the NW and I would be surprised if we avoid full blown zonality as we head towards mid-Dec.

Edited November 30, 2013 by Ian Brown

[snowangel32]

I so hope the ECM has got this nailed, but as evreone says we all got badly burnt last year with the big fail, but the fact the gfs has started baby steps towards the ECM and Met office positive updates is good to see and gives me more hope that this one will come off. Its also a shame to see a minority of posters IMO trying to wind others up, this is not nice and can ruin the thread. Lets all enjoy the weather watever it may bring. I have noticed that IF has gone quite could there be something brewing i wonder.

[Frosty.]

Because you can learn it's faults .....

Plus it goes to 384 on 21 runs at 4 cycles a day so theres always some eye candy to look at!

See everyone later for the 12s

fair enough, glad it's not a complete waste of time

Edited November 30, 2013 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

What was the 'big fail' re ecm last year? If you are talking about the beasterly, then more fool all of us looking at operational charts at 7 days plus. You will find that there was cross model agreement on the easterly arrival. It was a fail by all of the nwp.

[Gavin Hannah]

What was the 'big fail' re ecm last year? If you are talking about the beasterly, then more fool all of us looking at operational charts at 7 days plus. You will find that there was cross model agreement on the easterly arrival. It was a fail by all of the nwp.

 

If I remember correctly, the 'Failed Beasterly' was shown on models up to t.48hr. I'm sure the vast majority of members on here know better than to get hopes too high at anything beyond 48hrs. 

 

Edit, Just realized bluearmy meant Numerical Weather Prediction. (NWP) and not NetWeather People lol. (Although I wasn't having a dig). My bad. 

Edited November 30, 2013 by IBringTheHammer

[Frosty.]

For those who missed it, the Ecm 00z op run is here in all it's colourful GLORY..just as sensational as last night's 12z op and hopefully what the Gfs 12z will be moving towards. For all on here who have been banging the drum for a cold blast during the first half of dec..this is especially for you guys........

[ISAAC]

Hi guys, back for the winter and always following this thread. Some interesting posts regarding ECM vs GFS

 

I would note the ECM did topple last year for the easterly but that is a totally different setup. The Northerly here has been pretty much been consistent to some degree on both ECM and GFS.

 

The problem we have as always is may is people taking each of the 4 runs from the global model at face value. For me the GFS 0Z and 12z are the only ones which i take consideration for. The 06z has been proven to be way behind and not as useful as the 12z as Steve Murr would say, and then we have the pub run which loves to bring a bit of eye candy here and there.

 

Really looking forward to Tonight's 12z runs, but still with caution as the pattern on the MetO t+120 will be crucial come Sunday evening.

[Snowman.]

If I remember correctly, the 'Failed Beasterly' was shown on models up to t.48hr which was more of a model fail than a NW fail. And I'm sure the vast majority of members on here know better than to get hopes too high at anything beyond 48hrs. 

It was down to shortwave drama over northern scandi which stopped the ridge from moving.

 

 

You can see the mess there it was just picked up late.

[Gavin Hannah]

It was down to shortwave drama over northern scandi which stopped the ridge from moving.

 

You can see the mess there it was just picked up late.

 

Shortwaves are so often the bane of our winters lol. 

[Purga]

Majority of ENS going for mild after the cool blip

 

 

The odd rogue cold run but very much odds against.

Green Xmas coming up ??

Edited November 30, 2013 by Purga

[johnholmes]

Majority of ENS going for mild after the cool blip

 

 

 

The odd rogue cold run but very much odds against.

Green Xmas coming up ??

 

so on the basis of one run from ENS out to 15 December you are suggesting what MAY happen 10 further days down the line. Can you give some kind of meteorological reasoning for this please? Newcomers MIGHT think this is something that is going to happen when in reality no one, no computer, has the fohhiest real idea what 1 day 25 days away might turn out to be?

[johnholmes]

Expecting a backtrack on the ECMWF 12Z, just not convinced and GFS is the main model

 

how about some acrual proof, or are you simply on a wind up?