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Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Some people think the GFS is the main model simply because it has more runs per day and more info available to the public........ this is completely wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

Current cfs models are showing us in a cold pool during the festive period, I know that will change but to call it mild or cold is plain fickle. So much can happen and so much can change.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Some off topic content has been removed for sniping or adding nothing to the thread.

 

Please respect all views whether mild or cold especially if supported.

 

If you disagree then please construct a polite response preferably with a chart or some other data.

 

Remember folks if you simply wish to ramp or moan then maybe the other thread here will suite more-

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/

 

let's keep this thread  about what the models are showing and accept people have their own preferences.

 

Thanks.

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Some people think the GFS is the main model simply because it has more runs per day and more info available to the public........ this is completely wrong.

 

And then there are those who say they think it's best just to wind up other members. Especially in light of the fact that the stats posted this morning that show it to be anything BUT the best model. Again. The GFS consistently verifies below the Euros. It doesn't mean it is never right but it does mean that it should be taken less seriously than the ECM output. It would be interesting to have a month when the ECM ran 4 times a day and the GFS twice!?

 

Big 12z suite coming up later on this afternoon. I'm still thinking that a 2-3 day Northerly followed by a flattening out of the pattern is the most likely outcome but there remains a chance that more energy could pull south from that split flow and if that were to happen it could flip the outlook to a much more interesting one in terms of getting something a bit more long-lasting.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

so on the basis of one run from ENS out to 15 December you are suggesting what MAY happen 10 further days down the line. Can you give some kind of meteorological reasoning for this please? Newcomers MIGHT think this is something that is going to happen when in reality no one, no computer, has the fohhiest real idea what 1 day 25 days away might turn out to be?

 

just to reinforce your point john-

 

one day, two runs,

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

massive differences in 10 days time

 

 compare same daily time of run, trends not details at that range. eh john?

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Posted
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy Winters, Hot and Sunny Summers - Never Mild!
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom

Catcol, I mentioned this in the strat thread a week or so back. Matt remembered it also. It wasn't last year so I can only assume was two winters ago, possibly three.We had a rampant upper strat vortex but the zonal winds didn't propagate down to the lower strat and we saw amplified trop patterns.

Wasn't that the mid-December 2009 cold spell which promoted a Greenland High? If memory serves me right, we didn't get a SSW until early Jan 2010...

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It was down to shortwave drama over northern scandi which stopped the ridge from moving.

 

Posted Image

 

You can see the mess there it was just picked up late.

In other words, both the models and the pundits got it wrong?

 

Edit: Including yours truly!

Edited by A Boy Named Sue
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Wasn't that the mid-December 2009 cold spell which promoted a Greenland High? If memory serves me right, we didn't get a SSW until early Jan 2010...

You don't need a SSW to achieve a Greenland block. As long as the strat vortex is split, displaced or weak then it's not a problem. 2009 saw a weak strat vortex through November due to various small warnings during October and into November. I recall the strat didn't cool to average until into December.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ECM 00z ensemble mean is..........well to me it looks like a fantastic 0z mean and it's clear why the last 2 op runs have been so awesome...A strengthening arctic blast for all towards the end of next week with snow (drifting).. N'ly gales..ice..severe frosts and a perfect start to winter 2013 / 14.Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

post-4783-0-64666500-1385824158_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-89972600-1385824170_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-87561600-1385824184_thumb.gi

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post-4783-0-97575900-1385824232_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-88337600-1385824252_thumb.gi

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Well if this is only a 3 day event from the models so be it. If the reset means a mild wet few weeks then reload in jan so be it. But from what ive seen so far from all the models is there is nothing substancial or long lasting cold wise. And i cant see anything other than a westerly pattern setting up for the foreseable future after our short sharp blast next week

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

ECM London ensembles. Decent clustering for a cold snap though still enough scatter to be cautious.

 

Posted Image

 

Surprisingly this mornings Op was one of the less cold options in the cold cluster for the 7th and 8th

 

Edit the 8th is not among the coldest as pointed out by bluearmy - I do have an appointment with an optician next week.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

ECM London ensembles. Decent clustering for a cold snap though still enough scatter to be cautious.

 

Posted Image

 

Surprisingly this mornings Op was one of the less cold options in the cold cluster for the 7th and 8th

7th yes but 8th, surely almost the coldest mucka?

An hour till we see the ukmo ................

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Latest CFS which running out now has thrown a curve ball.

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

Too bad its crap.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

7th yes but 8th, surely almost the coldest mucka?

An hour till we see the ukmo ................

 

Posted Image

Yup my mistake, should of gone to ...

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Hot off the press..BBC NEWS 24 weather said a BIG BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IS DEFINATELY GOING TO HAPPENPosted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

 

Best get the BBQ cleaned up then Posted Image

 

Having run through both the 00Z & 06Z GEFS earlier, most had high pressure sat to our south by day 10. These can and do change significantly but if at day 10 they were all showing raging easterlies it wouldn't be ignored. Will be a very interesting few hours as the evening runs roll out.

 

I suspect a few twists and turns yet, and I wouldn't rule out a scandi block after the northerly. Another UK high pressure system is probably the likely outcome though.

 

Jason

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Anyone seen this? 

 

 

 

 

UK Outlook for Thursday 5 Dec 2013 to Saturday 14 Dec 2013:

A band of rain will spread southwards during Thursday, giving snow over high ground in Scotland and northern England. Clearer, colder and windy conditions will follow from the northwest with showers, these falling as snow from northern England northwards. Showers may turn wintry in the south later on Thursday and during Friday but the south and southwest should see the driest weather. Temperatures are likely to be below normal and feel colder still in the wind. Little change is expected during the weekend, with unsettled and cold weather continuing, and snow for northern Britain in particular. Thereafter, milder conditions are likely to spread from the west across much of the UK, with some more settled weather over the south.

Updated: 1155 on Sat 30 Nov 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_weather.html

 

I don't think you can ask for a much better text forecast than that for this time of year. Nice to know the met are on-board for this cold spell. 

Edited by Chris R
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

ECM London ensembles. Decent clustering for a cold snap though still enough scatter to be cautious.

 

Posted Image

 

Surprisingly this mornings Op was one of the less cold options in the cold cluster for the 7th and 8th

 

Edit the 8th is not among the coldest as pointed out by bluearmy - I do have an appointment with an optician next week.

 

I need an acronym buster for NCEP. Posted Image  Anyone please?

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Posted
  • Location: Bishop's Stortford in England and Klingenmünster in Germany
  • Location: Bishop's Stortford in England and Klingenmünster in Germany

As someone still trying to understand the models it is such a shame that this thread gets so cluttered with ramps and bias towards one type of weather or the other - to be honest you only have to see who the poster is to know more or less what the post is going to show -it would be a lot easier for us novices if these  posts were put on the moans and ramps thread and the model thread reported what the models show without the bias.

Agreed.  I think part of the problem  - at least my perception - this 'season' is that the models are modelling against, at times, conflicting or not very strong atmospheric signals leaving us with contradictory runs adn much variability.  Interestingly though I am noticing that for this time of year, at which normally a stronger and reasonably symterical PV is being formed, what is being modelled is often anything but which may perhaps bode for colder later in the winter.  Perhaps the only thing that one can say regarding the models at present is what they havent been showing for the past couple of months again, and that is long draw south westerly Tm aimasses covering the country.  We have seen a little bit of most everything else though with Pm, PmR etc and now some Polar meridonal flow being indicated as possible (but not necessarily very probable).

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

Certainly some signs of pressure rising in parts of Scandinavia as we head further into December. Something to keep an eye on :)

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

I need an acronym buster for NCEP. Posted Image  Anyone please?

 

National Centre of Environmental Prediction?

 

 

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