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Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Further to Tamaras excellent post I remember reading a few days back that there was a discrepancy between operationals and ensembles re the Pacific ridge, this may have caused that Scandi high hints that we saw two days back from the operationals more especially the ECM and some of the smaller models.

 

I think this might come down to a timing issue also, that there are changes but the speed of these upsteam still open to some revision, NOAA still show some uncertainty :

 

...LEADING TO USE OF AMODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND AMONG THE 18 UTC GFS/GEFS MEAN AND 12ZECMWF/ECMWF MEAN. FORECAST SPREAD INCREASES DAYS 6-7 TUE/WED DUETO DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE ERN PAC/AK RIDGE ERODES OR CHANGESSHAPE...BUT IMPLIED UNCERTAINTY HAS TENDED TO DECREASE FORYESTERDAY AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPOSITE BLEND SEEMS REASONABLEAND NOW OFFERS GOOD CONTINUITY EVEN AT THESE LONGER TIME FRAMES.

 

Given these trends I wonder what this evenings NOAA anomaly maps will look like?

 

I'm still inclined to go with that continental surface flow for most of the UK in the medium term, after that we'll see whether the outputs flatten the high completely. In terms of the ECM De Bilt ensembles there has been a change in terms of wind clusters, theres more clustering now around the southerly/se/sw, still some remain at easterly but less than yesterday:

 

post-1206-0-32056800-1386164659_thumb.pn

 

Todays outputs  agree on digging of energy into the Mid Atlantic, after this they now trend to taking a chunk of the PV eastward and try and pull the high north between the gap.

 

We'll see how any changes around the 144hrs in terms of whether we see any westwards corrections/more amplification might effect the later timeframe as that process occurs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Once the next 36hrs are out the way I just can't see the dry weather going on as long as GFS currently suggests...something has to give from around mid month, but the question is what? I think Ian B's suggestion that the high will sink and an increasingly unsettled pattern will consequently develop is the most likely evolution currently, with my book looking Zonal 60%, E/NE'erly 10% any other 30%

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

imo, the ext ens have been pretty good as a forecast tool. you cant just pick one run at random - you do need to be watching each suite so you know whats reasonable and also if a trend is establishing.did ian F promise an easterly? methinks not. we do need to read posts from ian properly before misquoting him or taking him 'out of context'. tbh, the same applies to everyone on here.

At no point did I suggest ian promised an easterly. So yes please read posts properly. What I said is forecasts are fickle. As they only go by what the charts show. And as for the ens , they have been awfull because 3 days ago for my area nearly the whole sets were going for a short but very cold shot. Now they very very briefly clip the -5 850hpa line. Along with ones showing signs of an easterly developing . Only to completely vanish a day later.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Once the next 36hrs are out the way I just can't see the dry weather going on as long as GFS currently suggests...something has to give from around mid month, but the question is what? I think Ian B's suggestion that the high will sink and an increasingly unsettled pattern will consequently develop is the most likely evolution currently, with my book looking Zonal 60%, E/NE'erly 10% any other 30%

Aye Shed, Ian's suggestions does seem to be becoming rather more likely...Anywho, looking on the bright side, we'll have a week or two in which to tidy our toy-cupboards!Posted Image  

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Aye Shed, Ian's suggestions does seem to be becoming rather more likely...Anywho, looking on the bright side, we'll have a week or two in which to tidy our toy-cupboards!Posted Image  

And make them ready for the ski's, snow shoes and sledges we'll be needing after half time I hope...Posted Image

Edited by shedhead
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The latest met office update indicates a nw / se split developing next week onwards to the end of the year, MY interpretation of this is that the north & west of the BI (especially n.ireland and scotland) would be generally unsettled and windy at times with mild weather alternating with colder, brighter and showery weather from time to time. The further south and east you are, the drier and brighter it would be with frost and fog patches, temps just on the cold side of average across the southeastern half of the uk with generally lighter winds due to more anticyclonic influence, lower heights to the northwest throughout, occasional rain and breezier weather would probably spread southeastwards but the emphasis would be on predominantly fine weather. There is still a low risk of something colder spreading from the southeast by mid month, and this risk persists beyond that point.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

caught bewtween wondering if too many are reacting to one or two less blocked extended runs or there really is a trend to more zonal. we really need to see consistency in the longer range modelling before jumping to conclusions. tamara's post gives a great explanation of the dynamics surrounding the change in locale of the mlb from the mid/east atlantic to be sitting just to our east/northeast.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

I think with the intensity of the PV we should soon start seeing more conventional zonal charts in the longer range NWP with the High sinking over Europe. Potentially a wet and windy Xmas period.

Ok, so this high which has been toppling for the best part of three weeks! Is now going to sink into Europe? Yet the later output from both the GFS or ECM do not show this. The meto suggest that it will be near us for the foreseeable. Reading the latest longer term outlook would not suggest it toppling/sinking.
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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Ok, so this high which has been toppling for the best part of three weeks! Is now going to sink into Europe? Yet the later output from both the GFS or ECM do not show this. The meto suggest that it will be near us for the foreseeable. Reading the latest longer term outlook would not suggest it toppling/sinking.

As has been said many times in here (mainly when they are calling for a milder outlook of course Posted Image) the longer term MO public forecasts posted on the web are not always accurate, indeed only earlier this week Ian F referred to them as something of a poison chalice for them. 

Edited by shedhead
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Just for Ian Brown, a trip down memory lane (current run):

 

CFS Jan: post-14819-0-12855000-1386167496_thumb.p  Feb: post-14819-0-28333700-1386167511_thumb.p

 

       March: post-14819-0-35617500-1386167529_thumb.p

 

Just as we come into the warmer climbs, April: post-14819-0-97360700-1386167565_thumb.p

 

I must admit I don't really go with CFS, however they have been trending a poor set up for a while. I think we may need some help from the strat this year.

 

In the mid term I agree with most of the above, a rather benign 15-20 days to come with HP close to our east and dry for many.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

As has been said many times in here (mainly when they are calling for a milder outlook of course Posted Image) the longer term MO public forecasts posted on the web are not always accurate, indeed only earlier this week Ian F referred to them as something of a poison chalice for them. 

Yes but the met office do an incredible job shed, you only have to look at how detailed their regional uk forecasts are to know how much hard work goes into them and the MO are right more often than not.

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Posted
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzards, Hoarfrost, Frost and Extremes
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL

Joe Laminate Floori tweeted this recently which maybe of interest

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/408226920644354049

Not sure where he got his info from tho'

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

shaun, these were ian's posts from yesterday.

'Yup, 'could' being the key phrase given the timescale ahead. However, the notion of the colder block (with UK somewhere to western edge of it) remains the form horse they favour currently. I've not seen the DECIDER output behind it, but have perused the EC32, so can see the rationale being employed. Anyway, we watch with interest. The polarization of solutions past next week is very striking currently and it would be foolhardy to wholly write-off any solution (including the NCEP 'Winter Blowtorch') at this juncture, albeit the seemingly contractually-required return to a more zonal or Atlantic-dominated status-quo is a known GFS trait and one often highlighted by the senior forecasters at Exeter, as a note of caution for those perusing stuff progged out past T+240. But that doesn't mean it's wrong. We just don't' know...

'UKMO view (just chatted with them) remains as before: i.e. for Scandinavian block to establish after next week's milder (for some, notably so) phase and a progressively colder return from SE/E thereafter'

this is what you posted earlier:

'Yesterday ian f said all pointers were looking at an easterly'

i just felt that your comment was a bit simplistic wrt to what ian posted.

if you think i am being pedantic then maybe pm me rather than clog the thread up.

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: North Yorks, prev West Essex
  • Location: North Yorks, prev West Essex

Joe Laminate Floori tweeted this recently which maybe of interesthttps://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/408226920644354049Not sure where he got his info from tho'

Well, all hope of a White Christmas is now gone! lol. I do find his forecasts interesting but I wish they were a little more correct.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Right while it's quiet i will lock this and open a new one ready for the afternoons entertainment/model runs.

Just hold off posting for a couple of minutes peeps-thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
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