Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[Matty M]

Pretty horrendous ECMWF for cold fans!

 

This is not the pattern we want to see!

 

Apt date for this chart.
 

Edited December 3, 2013 by Matty M

[swfc]

Springtime!!

T shirts & shorts folks.

terrible run!! would we not get any cold inversion tho 

[Methuselah]

Unfortunately the last 2 ECM runs have left a piece of the polar Vortex over Northern Russia/Finland, this prevents the Russian/Siberian high from linking up with our high. This pretty much leaves us with the Arnold schwarzenegger of mid latitude blocks

Ah'll be back!

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Lookin at ECM i think yuk but remember folks this sort of time last year was THAT ECM and the failed easterly ya never know the same thing could be happening again with todays one

[Continental Climate]

Well a poor show from the ECM tonight http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif!!  ala feb 98 there http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119980214.gif!!

Both charts sucking up warm moisture laden air from the very bowels of the Congo basin.

[fergieweather]

Did Freddie Kruger gain access to the ECM ? As CW mentioned a piece of the PV gets left behind to the ne and high pressure limpets itself to central Europe. If the ECM and GFS operationals are correct then todays ECM32 is cat litter! Positive anomalies replaced by negative ones in 24hours. No point trying to beat around the bush here the ECM is hideous for cold. In terms of its own ensemble suite looking at the earlier Dutch ensembles this run sits amongst approx. 5 out of the 50 ensemble members. That's not saying it won't verify, we'll have to wait till tomorrow, for coldies out there lets hope its a rogue one off!

Bear in mind the EC32 signal takes shape past days 15 onwards however. I've just re-checked the 15-21 and 22-28d anomalies. So we aren't any closer to even broad-brushing the wider outcome. But then we couldn't expect anything else at this tentative range.

[Smiler1709]

We all know the outputs will be different tomorrow, in the mean time I'm gonna go dust off my swimming shorts lol

[Purga]

C'mon folks no point chasing illusory cold the games up for the foreseeable

 

I'm a mega coldie but I'm not blind.

[swfc]

Lookin at ECM i think yuk but remember folks this sort of time last year was THAT ECM and the failed easterly ya never know the same thing could be happening again with todays one

problem is were not even close to an easterly!!!!The one last year was at least in place but scupperd by a "shortwave".

[Ian Brown]

Some great charts tonight for Gav and Gaz. Quite an intense PV developing over Greenland with the jet being driven to Western Russia, potentially exceptionally mild and bringing back those charts from the late 80s winters.

[stewfox]

Not a bad ECM, remember folks too early yet really for cold, this side of Xmas, ECM tonight looks dry, probably as rare as snow to be dry in Dec,

 

I am a snow fan of course but, cold normally does not arrive until mid Jan

 

Sometimes Mid March so plenty to play for

[Summer Sun]

ECM has high pressure and mild air dominating tonight

 

 

Once these patterns develop in winter they can take a long time to shift as we've found out before

[rory o gorman]

Quite happy with the Ecm tonight . Ok its not cold ,but its dry and with the moderate breeze a good chance for those 10 C uppers to mix down. Far better than a cranking jet and endless rain .  

[bluearmy]

given that the ecm ens have not been completely clustered cold, this is the first op singing from the less cold hymn sheet for ages. normally you get the op flipping about occasionally and bringing a run from the less cold scenario. anyway, the ens should provide more clues - dont be surprised if the whole suite is tilted towards less ridging. if so, will need to wait for the 00z run to see if a blip or a trend. my money firmly on the former.and gav, the surface T2 max returns from the gem run are average for s england.

[Yarmy]

Well that was grimmer viewing than a double-header episode of Eastenders:

 

 

Continental flow alright, but the continent is Africa.

[bryan629]

These windspeeds are just about off the scale, its a good job they are at 850hpa

the clouds will be screaming by though

Not the greatest of Ecms tonight , a tremendous amount of cold air being ejected from the usa into the northern atlantic over warm waters still...very complicated pattern for the models to get a grip on.

[Purga]

Bear in mind the EC32 signal takes shape past days 15 onwards however. I've just re-checked the 15-21 and 22-28d anomalies. So we aren't any closer to even broad-brushing the wider outcome. But then we couldn't expect anything else at this tentative range.

You do realise Ian, that the mental health and emotional welfare of scores of NW cold fans rests on every consoling comment that you can post? It's an awesome responsibilty at his juncture.

Edited December 3, 2013 by Purga

[Ian Brown]

ECM has high pressure and mild air dominating tonight

 

 

Once these patterns develop in winter they can take a long time to shift as we've found out before

Yes, the sort of pattern that can last for six weeks or longer. Quite a big shift tonight in the output as the NWP picks up on the increased strength going into the Northern arm. I think RJS picked up on this a couple of days ago.

[swfc]

Suspect ss nearly o------- there on that run .Anyway it hopefully is a rogue run but all output at 144 hours today on ecm,gfs and ukmo is virtually identical.where that puts fi is beyond me tbh

[Smiler1709]

The charts are unreal, there's so much resemblance to the winter of 62/63, we had a blast of cold air from the north on the 6th then high pressure dominated at mid latitude very similar tow hat we have now, obviously I'm not saying we're gonna get a severe winter but the patterns are nearly exactly the same, that with the met office update there's something to hold onto to. Let's wait and see.

[Frosty.]

Ah'll be back!

only in a rerun (the running man)...

 

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensembles are eagerly awaited.

[fergieweather]

You do realise Ian, that the mental health and emotional welfare of scores of NW cold fans rests on every consoling comment that you can post? It's an awesome responsibilty at his juncture.

Yup.... Thankfully some of us have learned not to care a jot whether it's a mild, average or cold outcome and to then concern ourselves wIth 12-72hr forecast issues. All interesting whatever the outcome...!

[nick sussex]

Bear in mind the EC32 signal takes shape past days 15 onwards however. I've just re-checked the 15-21 and 22-28d anomalies. So we aren't any closer to even broad-brushing the wider outcome. But then we couldn't expect anything else at this tentative range.

Thanks Ian, to be honest to get to those positive anomalies I would have thought the foundation has to be laid within the 240hrs mark. Anyway given the huge differences between tonights ECM 12hrs and last nights I think we had better wait till tomorrow. I'm rather dubious of tonights ECM, at worst I expected a continental se'rly flow for the UK with an inversion type scenario, certainly not BBQ and t-shirt weather!

Edited December 3, 2013 by nick sussex

[Ian Brown]

Thanks Ian, to be honest to get to those positive anomalies I would have thought the foundation has to be laid within the 240hrs mark. Anyway given the huge differences between tonights ECM 12hrs and last nights I think we had better wait till tomorrow. I'm rather dubious of tonight ECM, at worst I expected a continental se'rly flow for the UK with an inversion type scenario, certainly not BBQ and t-shirt weather!

 

Why ? The GFS had already started the trend and supported by its ensembles of more energy going into the Northern arm.

[Cloud 10]

Perhaps the best way to judge the horrors of the ECM operational run is to compare it with

its own ensemble mean,which more than likely will give better guidance and thankfully

tonights 12z is a poor match for the ENS 00z mean at day 10.

 

12z op.run..  00z ens..