Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

A few ensembles picking up the Scandi high by day 10 now, some with associated cold pooling. Pick of the bunch is this one.....oof oof

 

And another one I wouldn't kick out of bed for farting

 

[Dancerwithwings]

NASA/GEOS Europe at 120h, Still a little spaced out i think.

 

 

[swfc]

Well that nasa run out to 120 hrs is a cracker!!not sure of it cred wise but stonking 850s at the end in a second push from north

[The Northern Ramper]

The UKMO operational goes upto 168hrs, we only get to see upto 144hrs though, the reasons for that are beyond me! I'm not sure cost wise how much this would add to their budget if they went out to say 240hrs like the ECM or even 192hrs like the JMA. Even if they did extend it I doubt it would be open for public view.

Yet they denied on Twitter it went to 168

[karlos1983]

Well that nasa run out to 120 hrs is a cracker!!not sure of it cred wise but stonking 850s at the end in a second push from north

I would say judging by the thick lines drawing the coast line of E Greenland.....not great :-/

[Mucka]

GFS 2m temps SE England

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=298&y=131&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

Notice how cold the control gets with us stuck under a high - just shows we can't go off the temp graphs alone, we need the charts or at least 850's as well to determine if we have a shot of snow.

Edited December 3, 2013 by Mucka

[SnowObsessor90]

I just died a little inside. Could you explain how you can see this happening? This run has moved towards the Scandi scenario but just does not quite make it in FI thats all, dont see any of this "zonal onslaught to wipe out december and jan that you are on about?

It doesn't take a genius how things would eventually panning out in the event that  it "doesn't quite make it"  personally I'd rather have the Atlantic kick into gear this weekend as opposed the delaying of the inevitable scenario like that would be.

 

And yes and I know it's 18z and it's FI but right now i'd say that's just as plausible as any of the good looking charts the so called best Model likes to churn out.

Edited December 3, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[weatherguy]

Have to say, I'm delighted with the ECM this evening.  Pretty much stuck to its guns despite a downgrade in terms of longevity of the initial cold snap (does it really matter to coldies whether we get a northerly giving maybe 3 days of cold temps at the surface as is shown now, compared with maybe 6 as was shown previously?), while the signal for height rises to our NE remains as strong as ever.

 

Despite unfavourable background signals, just look at how shredded the PV is at +120h!

 

 

It fails to regain strength after +96, so this is not FI.  Plenty of potential here, and plenty to be happy about if you're searching for a meaningful cold spell; this northerly is just something to wet our appetites

Edited December 3, 2013 by weatherguy

[Gaz1985]

Well that nasa run out to 120 hrs is a cracker!!not sure of it cred wise but stonking 850s at the end in a second push from north

 

I think them uppers are for Mars, it is NASA's model after all

[Gaz1985]

The Chinese model's view on things for Saturday

 

The Aussie model one of the milder options

 

 

Big difference with the Chinese one at the top.

 

Edited December 3, 2013 by Gaz1985

[swfc]

The Chinese model's view on things for Saturday

 

sweet 850s there but the atlantic leaves a sour taste!!

[Mucka]

Very poor UKMO this morning, even worse than yesterdays efforts for coldies. It's times like these you wish it were not a good model. None event Northerly followed by a pattern that looks light years away from the amplification we have seen from ECM

 

 

 

GFS at least making a go of it.

 

Edited December 3, 2013 by Mucka

[Ali1977]

GFS looks good at 192

[Mucka]

GFS looks good at 192

 

Yeah encouraging run even though things didn't quite work out in FI. (Although cold at the surface for a time with a chance of some frontal snow for a time) If we can get to that position or better at 192 though we will have a chance of cold pattern proper setting up 

 

Comparison charts GEM, GFS, UKMO 96h - three different ideas of how to handle the all important low pressure of the SW tip of Greenland

 

Edited December 3, 2013 by Mucka

[swfc]

Shocking ukmo tbh and altho it  throws another variation of the ridging up nothing at all to suggest any significant cold up to the week before xmas on the oz at least

Edited December 3, 2013 by swfc

[Habsish]

Stunning write up Steve - thank you!

Yes but trying to read the font I found very difficult

[Mucka]

GEM seemed to start well enough but seems to lose the plot through the mid term, the trough South of Greenland just doesn't look right forcing far too much energy South, taking the path of most resistance, instead of splitting it off E/NE which would be what I would expect. Consequently it flattens the ridge instead of pushing WAA NE and ends up with this unlikely mess at 168. That's my take anyway. 

 

 

GFS ensembles: A wide variation in how they handle low pressure SW of Greenland which of course has big implications for how amplied our ridge is and on our chances of building a Scandi high later, Once that has been resolved we should get a much clearer idea of how realistic are chances are of some decent blocking around mid month.

Edited December 3, 2013 by Mucka

[Daniel Miller]

Finally finish my Uni essay and decide to quickly check this mornings model output - UKMO makes for rather upsetting viewing but atleast the GFS up to midrange with good height building to the NE. Well, off to bed for me, I'm beginning to see things... >.<

[swfc]

At the moment on the mo the ridging just cant get far enough nne up over scan and is just flatend out.Nothing cast in stone at them timeframes but the ukmo would imo be on the money here.Gme and ukmo almost in sinc at 144 hrs too

Edited December 3, 2013 by swfc

[Mucka]

Central England

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=251&y=86

 

 

GFS 00z ensembles are certainly firming up on some form of mid lat blocking inside the hi res section but until UKMO changes its tune we should be very cautious. That said even the UKMO chart at 144 could go on to form a MLB since the jet is digging South to our West but it would take a lot more effort and time to get a shot a decent Easterly flow I reckon. Much better if it isn't so flat.

Edited December 3, 2013 by Mucka

[Mucka]

At the moment on the mo the ridging just cant get far enough nne up over scan and is just flatend out.Nothing cast in stone at them timeframes but the ukmo would imo be on the money here.Gme and ukmo almost in sinc at 144 hrs too

 

I think you mean GEM, GME only goes to 72h. GEM looks better at 144 because it has better NE tilt and the pattern is further West - that said it is already losing the plot IMO by then so I didn't really care what it came up with after that.

 

Just a week after our failed Northerly, an Easterly? (GFS control thinks so)

 

Edited December 3, 2013 by Mucka

[TSNWK]

At 120 I do think the ECM has a different profile around Greenland to take of the metoffice at 120, ECM looks better

Um just read muckas post below, I will bow to his far superior knowledge. Not so good then, sorry.

Edited December 3, 2013 by TSNWK

[Great Plum]

Morning...

The ECM's take on the brief northerly...

Friday 00z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm723.gif

-5 air for most of the country by this point...

Saturday 00z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif

-5 air across the eastern half of the country as the high moves across from the west...

As expected, a very sharp but brief blast...

[Mucka]

ECM going for the flatter pattern like UKMO this morning.

 

 

Obviously poor compared to recent runs but at least it looks like the jet diving South to our West on that 144 chart which will help.

Edited December 3, 2013 by Mucka

[Polar Maritime]

An interesting post from Matthugo over on the Stratty thread... http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/page-22#entry2852445   ECM32 is showing blocking over Scandinavia this morning from mid Month.