Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[winterof79]

The chart at 108 hrs is not a nice sight at all for coldies.

Look at the high latitude's and its really hard to see any blocking,at all!

Fair to say for those who dont see any snow this thur/fri its going to be quite a wait for another opportunity..

If you take the GFS 12Z as a done deal that is.

[Gaz1985]

Snow becoming heavy across the Northern half of the country on Thursday, blizzards and drifting snow across highland Scotland and maybe the North Pennines, Lakes etc

 

 

The snow moves south Thursday night and still heavy in places

 

 

Fizzling out as it hits the Midlands but looks like Cheshire gap sort of snow so hit and miss

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Gaz1985

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Friday is still progged to be very cold. A bit milder in the West but it will feel ruddy freezing in the East, especially on the coasts exposed to the strong winds.

 

 

 

Saturday currently looks cold too but not as cold as Friday.

 

 

 

 

 

[Mapantz]

Quite a vigorous low on this run.

 

gfs-0-66.pnggfs-5-66.pngRtavn6619.png

 

Edit - add wind gusts from GFS. Amber warnings from that I would think.

viewimage.png

Coincides with the monthly Spring tides as well, could be some nasty flooding down the north east coast.

[Ian Brown]

The chart at 108 hrs is not a nice sight at all for coldies.

Look at the high latitude's and its really hard to see any blocking,at all!

Fair to say for those who dont see any snow this thur/fri its going to be quite a wait for another opportunity..

 

Yes it's a poor profile going forward, all you can say is that low heights in Southern climes may prop up the High for a time but there is certainly plenty of energy in that Northern arm.

[snowice]

I wonder will ecm12z stick with the Easterly or is it a dead duck in the water

[Barry12]

Heights building into Scandinavia at 144

 

[fergieweather]

Please do bear in mind the 15-30d UKMO forecast is largely a brief summary of latest EC32. I really wouldn't get too hung up on it. It's a poisoned chalice to prepare and not to be over-analysed. We will see next EC32 soon enough.

[bradymk]

I wonder will ecm12z stick with the Easterly or is it a dead duck in the water

The ECM, I think is toying with the right idea however I think the 00z was a bit fast with the solution so don't be surprised to see the easterly pushed back a bit. The ENS supported an easterly this morning, however not as early as was shown on the det. The ECM 00z det was very cold at the end for central England, Birmingham max temp on the 11th only -3c and overcast, brrr. 

Edited December 2, 2013 by bradythemole

[NorthernRab]

People are being far too local in their thinking with regards to the potential for future high latitude blocking. The northern hemispheric profile depicts a relatively positive picture for this very, very early stage in the winter. There's no need to weep simply because Greenland blocking is not being shown within 200 hours.  

 

Pressure rises towards the pole on this run which could lead to some rather more interesting if you're of a cold weather persuasion. This is not the feared "raging polar vortex" which leads to a "zonal train" - this is really quite benign for the time of year.

 

12hz:

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by NorthernRab

[SW Saltire]

I wonder will ecm12z stick with the Easterly or is it a dead duck in water?

How does one GFS run that is not even finished yet, constitute as no Scandi high, no potential cold december is over. I don't get it. This is not just directed at your post snowice btw.

 

Barry95 post proves my point entirely

Edited December 2, 2013 by SW Saltire

[MR EXTREMES]

but if you look at the strat charts on the latest gfs notice the vortex over in the Canadian sector.

and not much residual energy over this side.

so there is a gap to send heights in scandi area althouth we need lows to continue into Europe.

 

the gem is a run from hell the gfs so far is also but im not confident any of the models have the output correct beyond t144.

 

intresting stuff though and any blow torch I suspect will only be a 7 day event as energy is thrown out of the northern states I think personally that its 50/50 either milder or gradual return to colder.

 

so its palm trees and bbq with the gfs not seen warmth in December like this for a few years.

Edited December 2, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[MR EXTREMES]

and the ukmo agrees with the gfs and has the arctic air even futher east than this morning you could not make it up if you tried oh well near miss but close.

[UV-RAY]

Please do bear in mind the 15-30d UKMO forecast is largely a brief summary of latest EC32. I really wouldn't get too hung up on it. It's a poisoned chalice to prepare and not to be over-analysed. We will see next EC32 soon enough.

Poinsoned chalice Lol. What's your opinion on the EC32 Ian?

[terrier]

Well that's a very uninspiring set of model output this evening think a break away from model watching for 10 days or so then come back and see if any changes in the output because after this very brief cold shot I can't see much in the output past day 10 to inspire any of us

[karlos1983]

Further downgrade from the UKMO 12z

 

+60

+72

+96

 

Be interesting to see what the ECM has to say!

[TSNWK]

12:00 Met has the high drifting Southeast between 120 and 144, with a draw of South westerlys (supporting GFS)  - Not sure how ECM will be able to go against such a strong signal to drift the high south east tonight in each 168 -> panels this evening.

 

Can anyone see anything in the latest UKMO 144 that might lead to a solution shown in this mornings ECM.

Edited December 2, 2013 by TSNWK

[andymusic]

Well that's a very uninspiring set of model output this evening think a break away from model watching for 10 days or so then come back and see if any changes in the output because after this very brief cold shot I can't see much in the output past day 10 to inspire any of us

 

the only inspiration is the models are showing we will be able to put our heating down - with winds sourced from the Canaries!

[SW Saltire]

but if you look at the strat charts on the latest gfs notice the vortex over in the Canadian sector.

and not much residual energy over this side.

so there is a gap to send heights in scandi area althouth we need lows to continue into Europe.

 

the gem is a run from hell the gfs so far is also but im not confident any of the models have the output correct beyond t144.

 

intresting stuff though and any blow torch I suspect will only be a 7 day event as energy is thrown out of the northern states I think personally that its 50/50 either milder or gradual return to colder.

 

so its palm trees and bbq with the gfs not seen warmth in December like this for a few years.

I'd agree with most of your sentiments although, unfortunately we don't know how much residual energy will be left over Scandanavia so we will have to wait and see.

Exactly, all output beyond 144 should be treated with caution.

Unfortunately, for the Ski resorts it looks like this milder phase ,that seems inevitable in order to achieve a Scandi high, will wipeout any early snowfall

If we can't have cold then bring on exceptional mild i say! at least it will beat anticyclonic mediocraty

Edited December 2, 2013 by SW Saltire

[nick sussex]

The northerly snap or should I call it blip regardless of a slightly better start on the GFS goes downhill fast and to be honest is an insult to a northerly toppler!

 

Thereafter theres strong support now for that dig of energy into the mid Atlantic, for coldies out there I think we've got all our eggs in one basket here because given the expected location of the PV in the outlook its really easterly or bust. I don't see any other route to cold bar that.

 

So its a case of seeing where exactly that troughing sets up, the normally scenario with this type of route to an easterly is that shortwaves forming off the mother trough will run anti-clockwise round this and then eventually as pressure begins to rise towards the ne especially near Svalbard you'll have a small change in the axis of the trough, eventually one shortwave will run se and the energy will shear away from the mother trough allowing pressure to build west towards the UK.

 

That's now operation salvage December, its either an easterly or mild mush, not much middle ground here I expect.

[Purga]

Another essentially mild run from GFS 12z after the cold blip at the weekend with a terrific vortex firmly lodged over Greenland and N Canada as well as High Pressure to the E / SE of the UK recipe for mild SWly's and not much chance of any proper cold.

Only in far FI is the Scandi block back again but it looks too weak against the mighty vortex!

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO has the coldest air only affecting Scotland and the Eastern side of England now by Saturday the coldest air is in Eastern Europe

 

 

+4 uppers very close to the south by Sunday

 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

SW saltire from the gfs right to the end there does not look like a huge amount of residual energy from the vortex although im not expert but certainly a huge shift of energy maybe this leaves a possibility of another shot at scandi heights although we will see but im expecting the ecm to really break coldies hearts.

 

or maybe it will stick to its guns but the former looks more likely so we have gem gfs and ukmo all going for a tropical air type or sub tropical.

[legritter]

Afternoon ,Going by todays data info i think that looking at the day 10 plus weather prospects will be a Minefield .things next week could quickly slide into many possible synoptic possibilitys .i still reckon  thurs /sat could turn up some surprises .certainly a great time for learning about forecasting and computer models .

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The northerly snap or should I call it blip regardless of a slightly better start on the GFS goes downhill fast and to be honest is an insult to a northerly toppler!

 

Thereafter theres strong support now for that dig of energy into the mid Atlantic, for coldies out there I think we've got all our eggs in one basket here because given the expected location of the PV in the outlook its really easterly or bust. I don't see any other route to cold bar that.

 

So its a case of seeing where exactly that troughing sets up, the normally scenario with this type of route to an easterly is that shortwaves forming off the mother trough will run anti-clockwise round this and then eventually as pressure begins to rise towards the ne especially near Svalbard you'll have a small change in the axis of the trough, eventually one shortwave will run se and the energy will shear away from the mother trough allowing pressure to build west towards the UK.

 

That's now operation salvage December, its either an easterly or mild mush, not much middle ground here I expect.

Agreed Nick,

Little or zero chance of any heights around Greenland before mid December IMHO,esp looking at the power of the jet coming out of the states.

The only realistic hope is the block to our SE/E moving north and settup a scandy high or some sort of block to our North East.

It might not be a popular view but im personally not expecting the chance of snow until mid December at the earliest now.