Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[That ECM]

Well another big fail of a northerly on this mornings output ukmo and gfs give the briefest of glancing blows. With only really Scotland seeing the worst of any snow that will fall. Rjs forecast seems a worry for us this morning aswell. Think it's time to take stock and see what jan brings.

Love it.... Let's just right of December!! Why will people not learn. Anything can happen. It was only yesterday most were saying a northerly of note was coming for the whole of the country.

[Great Plum]

Next Monday sees a non sinking high on the ECM...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

Still cold at the surface I'd wager...

[Mucka]

C'mon boys, let's play nicely, we have a whole day to get through.

Yeah it is all very tentative at the moment especially since UKMO is very different but better to see these charts than not.

216 the fuse is lit.

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Mucka

[Weather-history]

Rjs forecast seems a worry for us this morning aswell. .

Hmm, it doesn't install greatest confidence for me with such forecasts when their prediction for November was a mere +3.5C out........ Edited December 2, 2013 by Weather-history

[gottolovethisweather]

Well another big fail of a northerly on this mornings output ukmo and gfs give the briefest of glancing blows. With only really Scotland seeing the worst of any snow that will fall. Rjs forecast seems a worry for us this morning aswell. Think it's time to take stock and see what jan brings.

 

 On December 2nd at approximately 7 in the morning you're saying give up on December? Whilst I agree some forecasts suggest such a short-term outcome bar the incoming blizzard potential for some, are you sure you're not just trying to create a reaction on here? Sorry to be so blunt, but with 713 hours left to the end of the year, are so sure you will be correct. Fair play to you, if you are and I will personally congratulate by PM. Please remind me on January 1st.

Edited December 2, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Great Plum]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

Full of promise...

The next day...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif

It's coming! (Well, it's probably not, but it's fun to look at!)

[Mucka]

Knock, knock!

 

[Frosty.]

Bitterly cold weather spreading south with snow for scotland, n.ireland & n.england and severe frosts.

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM why do you keep subjecting us to this torment 

Fair to say FI is probably buried by now

[Great Plum]

Conjecture but... But!!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

Days 11 and 12 would be great to see...

Still no sign of zonal on the ECM at least...

[Mucka]

Interesting BOM

 

 

ECM ensembles will be worth a view later.

Edited December 2, 2013 by Mucka

[cooling climate]

At day 10 surely the ECM is not going to do it again on what will be

the anniversary of that ECM a year ago,

Very sceptical at what the ECM is showing this morning.

[gottolovethisweather]

FWIW guys n gals, I believe Thursday into Friday is likely to be a very noteworthy day for a fair few people especially in Northern and Eastern regions , given the snow, bitter 850s, likely severe wind chill due to there being some very strong winds associated with the trigger low. Where we go from Friday will be interesting to watch as well, especially given there will still be some 600 hours of NWP output to watch, unless of course you think December's over early this year. Maybe cancel Christmas and look forward to Easter.

 

My 10 day outlook currently shows the following, which is a low snow risk IMBY but some cold days ahead and potential for a couple of milder days by the 10th and 11th.

 

As for a brief summary of the week, I will repost yesterday's broad brush approach at a forecast.

 

Whilst the last two GFS 12z have seemingly gone off on one. Let us not forget about the near-term, irrespective of which model you choose to follow.

•Monday - largely dry and slightly milder than normal, generally cloudy.
•Tuesday - a cold front bringing a band of rain Southwards across the UK.
•Wednesday - a colder day for all, Temps not too far off average in the South of the UK, colder than average up North of the UK. A showery day?
•Thursday - Potentially the coldest day of the spell, it will feel BITTER everywhere due to the potent Northerly flow straight from the Arctic.
•Friday (t+120 hours) - Still has the potential for a decent depth of cold anywhere within the UK, t850s ranging from -4 uppers to nearer -14 uppers in the far North. Plenty of precipitation, due to disturbances in the flow, slowly retreating Eastwards and slightly higher uppers trickle in from the West.

 

Next weekend - best check your seaweed, or perhaps have a go at reading your tealeaves.

 

A good start to meteorological winter in my opinion and by Tuesday/Wednesday we will know if the snap is to be a 36 hour affair or of a much longer duration.

Edited December 2, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Tim Bland]

Correct me if I'm wrong but not a single GEFS ensemble supports ECM at day 10. Until there is more support I would say its a 5% chance that we get an easterly in 12-15 days time

[SW Saltire]

People always say I think the mist will clear etc, tbh the water has got even more murky. The northerly has been in general shunted further East but still there are large disparities between the models, no real agreement yet with the ECM still championing a more potent blast. Then we are left with a probable southerly which would seem necessary in order to achieve a Scandi high. One think is certain, this month will be very hard to call and this fence is looking very appealing

right now Although, I believe at least a ridge will be thrown to Scandi but whether full retrogression occurs is dubious.

Edited December 2, 2013 by SW Saltire

[That ECM]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8827/ECF0-240_dkn4.GIF

Happy birthday to me!! Happy birthday to me!!

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z is showing impressive cold blasting south for friday & saturday with snow showers for exposed northern and eastern areas and with frosts becoming widespread and severe, penetrating in the windier far north and east, frequent heavy snow showers for the far north/ne on thurs/fri and snow showers could affect other areas once the arctic air digs south. If you take a look at the met office regional updates you will see the risk of wintry showers extends to most of the uk by the end of this week and possibly severe conditions across the far north with frequent, heavy snow showers with northwesterly severe gales which only slowly subside later on friday into saturday, next weekend looks cold and frosty.

[carinthian]

Well a massive difference between the American and the Euro model. I feel the UKMO may be going for a short sharp cold spell and return of warmer airflow in their outlook. Will be speaking to our forecasters later this morning with their view on the Scandinavian High development as they tend to use ECM in there longer term progs.

 C

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

Well a massive difference between the American and the Euro model. I feel the UKMO may be going for a short sharp cold spell and return of warmer airflow in their outlook. Will be speaking to our forecasters later this morning with their view on the Scandinavian High development as they tend to use ECM in there longer term progs.

 C

As usual the GFS solution looks wildly off with the ECM the better bet. Heights building over Scandinavia is looking the better prognosis but certainly not nailed down. A lot of solution watching with one eye on the Met Office over the next few days I think!

Edited December 2, 2013 by Sussexwalker

[karlos1983]

As usual the GFS solution looks wildly off with the ECM the better bet. Heights building over Scandinavia is looking the better prognosis but certainly not nailed down. A lot of solution watching with one eye on the Met Office over the next few days I think!

Beggining to lose a bit of faith in the ECM now. That's twice in a short period that's it's been off the mark, now it's going for a Scandi High, and we are not far off a year since it failed big time on an easterly. I will be waiting for UKMO to join that party before I even begin to get interested.

[tight isobar]

Quite simply the variables, via output this morning are of such contrast/ implications, in mid/ longer term range the most sensible thing to say is...more runs required.perhaps by this evening I would personaly have A GUESS at a more likely outcome mid term.but right now,It's ....????!!!!!

[shedhead]

The overnight runs appear to close the cold window a little further this morning, with the so called 'Arctic blast, looking increasingly weak and fragile.  Once again the models are now edging the pattern ever eastwards, so after a cold, locally very cold 24-48hrs, milder weather looks set to return from the south, but thereafter the jury still remains out.  GFS is clearly keen to sink the high and allow Atlantic zonality to rear it's head, whilst ECM wants to extend a ridge across the UK from Scandi. UKMO out to 144hrs does look rather more onside with GFS and IF it went out to T+168hrs a milder SSW flow would probably ensue....with zonality favourite to develop thereafter.

 

On a positive note after a number of eastward corrections the models often start to move the pattern a little farther west again as we get within 36-48hrs of the event, so some slight upgrades are possible before Thurday, but overall any Arctic air does look set to be very transient.

Edited December 2, 2013 by shedhead

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Beggining to lose a bit of faith in the ECM now. That's twice in a short period that's it's been off the mark, now it's going for a Scandi High, and we are not far off a year since it failed big time on an easterly. I will be waiting for UKMO to join that party before I even begin to get interested.

Yep,absolute damp squib this northerly is now going to be for the vast majority,really disappointed.

GFS was never really interested and neither to be honest was UKMO.

Now onto chasing an easterly......

[TEITS]

Correct me if I'm wrong but not a single GEFS ensemble supports ECM at day 10. Until there is more support I would say its a 5% chance that we get an easterly in 12-15 days time

Morning Tim.

 

As I said yesterday some kind of flow off the continent is most likely in the outlook and its most likely to remain dry and settled except maybe far N of Scotland. However at this stage the flow could be anything from a S,ly to a bitter E,ly.

 

If we are to see a prolonged cold spell in Dec then an E,ly via HP to our NE is our only chance because blocking towards the Greenland region is very unlikely.

[bluearmy]

Shall we wait to see what uppers we receive at the end of the week, look at the actual charts and then, assuming we aren't too busy chasing an easterly, trawl back through th modelling to see which model made the best fist of it. (And you can't go past T144 or ukmo has to be excluded)

Will make a more detailed post looking forward after the naefs/ECM eps are out. safe to say a building scandi block is much more difficult to pin down than a trough/ridge/trough moving w to e from two weeks out.