Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire

Thanks OMM, Nicely explained and put in terms that most of us can understand.  I agree with your comments that "it just looks all wrong".  I cannot believe the "glancing Northerly",  I think the charts shown yesterday will be closer to the mark than those produced today. Why? I can't tell you, but, like you, looking at the charts there does seem to be a tendency of the models to shove everything off East (Steve Murr's Eastward Bias)

Thanks NNW, we won't know for a day or two yet, but like I said, developments in the W Atlantic will certainly influence whether any cold is short-lived or not. A lot of what I say is based on how similar situations have developed in the past, not that any two situations are ever exactly the same, but it does quite often happen that HP positioned where it is now, will pull away to the W and NW. One other point I forgot to mention is how the Greenland HP has been forecast to grow pretty intense, something else which suggest to me that HP will link N/S across the mid-Atlantic, at least for a few days. The models should prove interesting this week!
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

GHASTLY GFS 18z

Posted Image

A wretched profile there heralding a BBQ December - yuk

 

Still not to worry there's a mighty Scandi High in FI

Posted Image

Talk about a Nick Sussex rollercoaster special! Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Purga
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

You might as well draw a brick wall over Central/Northern Europe and Scandinavia on this run, nothing is getting through that beast.

Posted Image

Posted Image

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Once again, an easterly cometh

 

Posted Image

 

I think people are going to have to accept a few days of southerlys to enable the potential easterly.

Yep, the high builds once again

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

 

 

I wouldn't put any stock in this run, looks far too progressive and flat through the mid range even if it does eventually want to build high pressure over Scandi, unless the ensembles and Euros start to support something similar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Well it gets there in the end with a Russian super block - lots of variations on offer I suspect at this range.

Posted Imagegfsnh-0-300.png

 

Plenty going on the other side too.

Indeed it does,the 850s are pretty rank tho tbhPosted Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North Yorks/Lancs border 180m asl
  • Location: North Yorks/Lancs border 180m asl

WAA right into the Arctic

 

Posted Image

Thx,and I just about understand a WAA.  But this option seems so far from any other so why should it happen? And if it does please give a  clue as to what happens next

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

It does look like a brief Arctic spell.

The T96/120 fax's

 

Posted ImageNEATL_AB_SurfacePrognosis_UNCL_1200_T096.pngPosted ImageNEATL_AB_SurfacePrognosis_UNCL_1200_T120.png

 

much in line with the raw output by the looks.

A cold,frosty weekend to follow under the high then it all depends on where the block goes from there.

Disagreement even in the ens tonight on next week-a lot to decided yet.

 

Hopefully they will change with UKMO output tomorrow. The UKMO 12z was comfortably furthest East with pattern out of all the output so unless it is leading the way with that then there is reason to be hopeful of improvemnt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold!
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

Maybe GFS coming up with a major Scandi block is going to become a bit of a trend.... which it will later drop, as the ECM starts to sniff around it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Bin the 18z it looks all wrong in low resolution, the gfs is always slower at picking up blocking signals. Cold and blocked is the trend tonight once the heavy snow clears.

 

Admire your positivity Frosty, but I can't see what you mean- after a rather transitory cold spell it looks like we are going to pick up southerlies- indeed both the GFS 18Z and the ECM are showing air being drawn up from a long way south after the weekend. It's still a fair way out but looks the logical evolution to me as the high moves into Central Europe. Could be great for cold and snow though- if you live in Greece or the Balkans that is!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Interesting comparisons between GFS 18z & ECM12z around T228-T240, obviously in the realm of FI, but to my untrained eye as such there does seem to be genuine similarities in the NH T500 charts depicting a amplified pattern with mid atlantic troughing and strong heights building into Scandinavia, both of which hinting to an eventual continental flow....This does sem to be something of a recurring pattern so worth noting (as more experienced posters seem to be alluding to...)

 

 

GFS T228   post-4149-0-06558900-1385939148_thumb.pn

 

ECM T240  post-4149-0-94213300-1385939209_thumb.pn

 

GFS T240 post-4149-0-90427600-1385939231_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Hopefully they will change with UKMO output tomorrow. The UKMO 12z was comfortably furthest East with pattern out of all the output so unless it is leading the way with that then there is reason to be hopeful of improvemnt.

Maybe,but this was never more than a short burst Mucka.We keep the cold at the surface for a while after which seems to have always been the case.

The interest for me is after the weekend.Where does the block go-ne/se or stays around the uk?

 

A chance for a developing Scandi block is there in current modeling with the bulk of the vortex moving to Canada.

I would like to see more strength in the s. arm of the jet though to support that otherwise we may end up with something around Denmark/Germany or worse if we continue to see too much low development across S.Greenland/Iceland.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I'm just so relieved the ukmo 12z solution has been trashed by the latest fax charts so we can now look forward to a few days/nights of arctic weather on thurs / fri and perhaps saturday. Chances of a wintry xmas period are good too according to EC32 day outlook. :- )

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

I agree with Crewecold now, we have a really important opportunity if we can get near the far reaches of what FI is showing, it would take a long while to shift a block like that, if cat, I don't think I've ever seen a block as big as the one in the 18z tonight.

 

We'd have to endure southerlies for a while, but when something shifts, it would send us into the most amazing easterly which could rival any we've seen!

 

I'll write off the cold snap in exchange for far FI please weather gods?

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

I just hope Monday morning sees a little upgrade or my facebook gonna look stupid , can you believe at gfs 6z this morning GFS ECM And UKMO were all agreed on a 3 day Northerly , 12 hours later the Northerly may not even happen .... grrr this model watching much more tense than last year....

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Don't know if it is just a blip but quite a few members go with the Op including the control. Run to run consistency just hasn't been there with GFS for some time though so no way of knowing until tomorrows Euros come out.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=252&y=84&run=18&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Maybe,but this was never more than a short burst Mucka.We keep the cold at the surface for a while after which seems to have always been the case.

The interest for me is after the weekend.Where does the block go-ne/se or stays around the uk?

 

A chance for a developing Scandi block is there in current modeling with the bulk of the vortex moving to Canada.

I would like to see more strength in the s. arm of the jet though to support that otherwise we may end up with something around Denmark/Germany or worse if we continue to see too much low development across S.Greenland/Iceland.

 

Yeah it was always going to be short but we were in line for a direct hit rather than a glancing blow and here in the NW that can make all the difference between heavy snow showers and no showers at all which accounts for my fixation with where the pattern sets up. I guess for those away from the NW it doesn't make much difference.

 

GFS 18z ensembles are not a pretty sight out to day 12 on the whole with a predominantly Westerly flow - just the odd run even hinting at an Easterly but given how poor GFS has been with even its ensembles flopping about I won't lose any sleep over it - for now. Posted Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Check this out for 'high' pressure.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=10&ech=288&mode=0&carte=0 Posted Image

 

Or how about this one from another ensemble...

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=11&ech=264&mode=0&carte=0   Posted Image

Edited by Jason M
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

Don't know if it is just a blip but quite a few members go with the Op including the control. Run to run consistency just hasn't been there with GFS for some time though so no way of knowing until tomorrows Euros come out.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=252&y=84&run=18&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

Not sure about that , but if next Thursday comes off as currently shown I will have to have egg on my face and admit the GFS was closest all along , but I suspect slight upgrades in the morning with a much more pronounced Northerly and then high pressure moving NE across the Uk setting up a Scando High that will deliver some sort of Easterly flow during week 2/3 of Dec 2013 . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

I'm just so relieved the ukmo 12z solution has been trashed by the latest fax charts so we can now look forward to a few days/nights of arctic weather on thurs / fri and perhaps saturday. Chances of a wintry xmas period are good too according to EC32 day outlook. :- )

 

Hi Frosty

They look very much like the 12z to me with a glancing blow, blink and you'll miss it?

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Mucka
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Bin the 18z it looks all wrong in low resolution, the gfs is always slower at picking up blocking signals. Cold and blocked is the trend tonight once the heavy snow clears.

Whilst some places will see some snow, particularly over high ground in the north, heavy snow does not look likely for the vast majority of us.... probably c.95% in fact.  The 18GFS is even quicker to end the brief Arctic blast, in fact there may be no blast at all if the current trend continues across the coming 24hrs, with Fri PM already seeing a quick pressure rise from the SW.

 

Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Exeter have opted for 60% blend back to 00z GM but have v low confidence in these modifications (ie to something more akin to EC & GFS). Scope of cold ingress to W a key uncertainty especially but in wider sense a raft of issues currently lead to lower confidence now versus where we sat 24hrs ago. 9/12 MOGREPS members also favoured the more progressive, less pronounced cold spell and this just emphasises further the uncertainty post-Thurs.

 

Most of the latest GEFS simply sweep the northerly away. I'd imagine that the opps should be leading the way at this range although there seems almost no consistency beyond day 4 at present.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Not sure about that , but if next Thursday comes off as currently shown I will have to have egg on my face and admit the GFS was closest all along , but I suspect slight upgrades in the morning with a much more pronounced Northerly and then high pressure moving NE across the Uk setting up a Scando High that will deliver some sort of Easterly flow during week 2/3 of Dec 2013 . 

 

GFS would of been closest no matter what we get given it has put out every solution possible over the last few days - your face need not be eggy. Posted Image

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Exeter have opted for 60% blend back to 00z GM but have v low confidence in these modifications (ie to something more akin to EC & GFS). Scope of cold ingress to W a key uncertainty especially but in wider sense a raft of issues currently lead to lower confidence now versus where we sat 24hrs ago. 9/12 MOGREPS members also favoured the more progressive, less pronounced cold spell and this just emphasises further the uncertainty post-Thurs.

 

I don't like the sound of that at all. Seems as though there is a lot more scope for something flatter and/or further East. Ah well plenty of Winter left.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...