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Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

Purely looking at the ECM, I don't believe a return to Atlantic driven weather is on the cards past next weekend. HP is still in the Atlantic by t240 and over the UK. LP is starting to squeeze the HP the in Atlantic, but the HP over the UK is at 1040mb which will be hard to shift.  I think it's anything BUT atlantic lows for the foreseeable future.

 

The N.H pattern is looking very messy with the PV failing to establish itself.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

My optimism that we will see a cold extension is now hitting 7/10! .

Blimey, for you Nick that's quite a ramp!
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Purely looking at the ECM, I don't believe a return to Atlantic driven weather is on the cards past next weekend. HP is still in the Atlantic by t240 and over the UK. LP is starting to squeeze the HP the in Atlantic, but the HP over the UK is at 1040mb which will be hard to shift.  I think it's anything BUT atlantic lows for the foreseeable future.

 

The N.H pattern is looking very messy with the PV failing to establish itself.

 

Posted Image

Thats one thing I've noticed over the last two weeks, how the PV cannot get a foothold in its favourite location for any length of time. The whole NH profile looks different to recent years with the PV moving around like an unwelcomed traveller.
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Here is the day time temperatures from Thursday according to  So as we can see there it looks fairly sunny snow is shown for some northern parts but with temperatures of 5c and 7c I wouldn't be so certain The north starts to see temperatures relax by the 9th  (Edinburgh's average high for December is 7c so only just below average by the 9th)

Last time I checked Gavin, each day lasts 24 hours. Those are max temps for each day and the over riding weather type for the day. You can glean more by looking at the total precip for the day how intense that might be.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Last time I checked Gavin, each day lasts 24 hours. Those are max temps for each day and the over riding weather type for the day. You can glean more by looking at the total precip for the day how intense that might be.

 

The long term forecast as I posted above only gives temperatures from 12:00 to 18:00

 

To get precipitation forecasts you need the detailed long term forecast

 

London - http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/London/long.html

 

Birmingham - http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Birmingham/long.html

 

Darlington - http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Darlington/long.html

 

Edinburgh - http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/Scotland/Edinburgh/long.html

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The beebs weather for the week ahead shows an increasingly cold outlook with an arctic blast for all of us by Friday though snow doesn't look like it will affect to many of us away from Scotland

 

Thursday sees the cold air starting to arrive turning the rain increasingly to snow over northern Scotland

 

Posted Image

 

Friday sees the cold air over all the UK with gale force winds making it feel even colder

 

Posted Image

 

For most in the east it will be sunny and cold with the west stuck under more clod the bulk of the snow lookd restricted mostly to Scotland

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The long term forecast as I posted above only gives temperatures from 12:00 to 18:00 To get precipitation forecasts you need the detailed long term forecast London - http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/London/long.html Birmingham - http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Birmingham/long.html Darlington - http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Darlington/long.html Edinburgh - http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/Scotland/Edinburgh/long.html

Just shows how dramatic the temp drop will be. If the front was active we could be looking at thunder snow.
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m

Some rather interesting ensemble members, PB 10 and 20 looking rather tasty..

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

A few seem to go on to develop something this in the far reaches of FI (transfer of higher pressure towards Greenland ~4-5 members), although i would suggest this is unlikely given the current background signals (strat for a start). What does seem likely is some sort of height building towards scandi, defiantly something to keep an eye on in future runs!

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Mark Bayley
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

So,those trumpetting a return to zonailty with the jet barrelling into Scandy may well have to think again this morning.

As the old saying goes, 'the weather can make fools out of us '...

 

Just as an aside,im still thinking a block around the UK maybe extending into the southern portion of Scandy meaning very very cold surface conditions as we head into the second week of December.Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

NScotland NIreland and wales look the sweet spots for some decent accumulations AS THINGS STAND..

For those who miss out on snow at the end of the week some very seasonal weather on offer much better than Atlantic dross for the season of goodwill.

PS welcome back teits from you NW buddies.Posted Image

 

Wind | Atlantic ocean forecasts | Weather forecasts | Weather | Icelandic Meteorological office

 

Hope thats not copyrighted but its the link to the  ECM 850's and precip charts.

If it is can a mod delete the link.

 

I doubt it infringes copyright as it is a public output from the Icelandic Met office=another good source to go with their first class satellite lin, one which will enable all to follow the low and front as it develops and moves later next week-just not able to post that link but will look for it-thanks for yours.

 

here it is although I may have got the coutry wrong it could be Norway looking at the address-no matter=well wort book marking for those who have not yet got it. Come Tuesday, unless I forget, I will do another set of links to follow this development.

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

The beebs weather for the week ahead shows an increasingly cold outlook with an arctic blast for all of us by Friday though snow doesn't look like it will affect to many of us away from Scotland

 

Thursday sees the cold air starting to arrive turning the rain increasingly to snow over northern Scotland

 

Posted Image

 

Friday sees the cold air over all the UK with gale force winds making it feel even colder

 

Posted Image

 

For most in the east it will be sunny and cold with the west stuck under more clod the bulk of the snow lookd restricted mostly to Scotland

 

Posted Image

got a pretty strong idea that will change as the week goes on

Be it better or worse depending on your preference.

But think this week could be a potential forecasters knightmare

Any developments could just pop up at last minute.

The cold is coming now

So anything may happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

got a pretty strong idea that will change as the week goes onBe it better or worse depending on your preference.But think this week could be a potential forecasters knightmareAny developments could just pop up at last minute.The cold is coming nowSo anything may happen.

I agree entirely, they have picked out the overall pattern, but the metoffice does not have a good record recently with forecasting the detail at that range, I have had unforecasted rain on several occasions and also some autumnal storms have not materialsed - all at very close range.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 06z mean has upgraded the longevity of the arctic blast by an extra day compared to yesterday when a ridge was already covering the uk next saturday, so a backtrack from the GEFS  continues. It looks like we are in for a Bitterly cold blast through the second half of thursday, all friday and most of saturday with snow showers, severe frosts, ice & high wind chill, a nithering cold blast as paul hudson would say.Posted Image

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

Worth noting that on this occasion, UKMO favour consensus of GFS, Canadian GM, MOGREPS-15 & their own GM over ECMWF at T+132 (from 00z suites). So, an example of their analysis NOT favouring EC over GFS (we discussed this stuff yesterday). Note some members continue to flag a significant coastal flooding threat in the east.

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Posted
  • Location: Middlesbrough
  • Location: Middlesbrough

Worth noting that on this occasion, UKMO favour consensus of GFS, Canadian GM, MOGREPS-15 & their own GM over ECMWF at T+132 (from 00z suites). So, an example of their analysis NOT favouring EC over GFS (we discussed this stuff yesterday). Note some members continue to flag a significant coastal flooding threat in the east.

Where do you guys think will the favoured areas for snow?
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Turning Arctic is how I would describe the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, again it holds back the atlantic ridge so we get an extra arctic day next weekend followed by a frosty ridge of high pressure by sunday. Great charts for all coldies to enjoy today and it's within the reliable timeframe now.Posted Image

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Worth noting that on this occasion, UKMO favour consensus of GFS, Canadian GM, MOGREPS-15 & their own GM over ECMWF at T+132 (from 00z suites). So, an example of their analysis NOT favouring EC over GFS (we discussed this stuff yesterday). Note some members continue to flag a significant coastal flooding threat in the east.

Thanks for thr update Ian. Hopefully the flooding risk will be reduced in future runs.
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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.

Well looking good for later this week now, what i find amazing is the potency of the northerly so early in the season and could well be and indicator to the winter ahead of us. Some fantastic model watching to come over the next few days as we turn our attentions to the possible awakening of the BEAST!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Has the meto had any indication of a possible scandy high/ easterly Ian F?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Worth noting that on this occasion, UKMO favour consensus of GFS, Canadian GM, MOGREPS-15 & their own GM over ECMWF at T+132 (from 00z suites). So, an example of their analysis NOT favouring EC over GFS (we discussed this stuff yesterday). Note some members continue to flag a significant coastal flooding threat in the east.

WOW Gfs trumps Ecm, feather in the cap time for the much maligned gfs.Posted Image

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'd go for snow-fall in the following areas: North Scotty; NE and NW Scotty; NW, SW, NE , E England and East Anglia, primarily...But, who knows what troughs may (or may not) occur in the NNW'erly airflow?

 

Will most inland areas 'escape'?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Worth noting that on this occasion, UKMO favour consensus of GFS, Canadian GM, MOGREPS-15 & their own GM over ECMWF at T+132 (from 00z suites). So, an example of their analysis NOT favouring EC over GFS (we discussed this stuff yesterday). Note some members continue to flag a significant coastal flooding threat in the east.

Looking at the gem, that's strange as its way different to ukgm and gfs. Can only assume mogreps-15 is in that area?that must have been a tough decision for the senior man, seeing as ECM op has modelled upstream rather better than the models you listed.Still, at this range, it's not too important.
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