Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[SMU]

GFS angles the jet at 144 around 5 degrees MORE toward the NE, but nowhere near close enough to the UKMO yet-

 

UKMO 144 is just 2 days away from a Scandi high- ( maybe 2 1/2)

 

Interesting im surprised no one has mentioned the UKMO 850s @144

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013120100/UN144-7.GIF?01-06

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013120100/UW144-7.GIF?01-06

 

That's the entire UK covered in -10c, a pocket of -12s & then the -14c line reasonable into Scotland, where as 2 days ago it scraped Shetland-

 

For anyone to say its a typical Northerly is like comparing skimmed milk with Full Fat- looks the same but is actually totally different-

 

If I went back through the archives for Northerlies in December I bet people couldn't find more than 1 or 2 that have the -14c line into Scotland- This is possibly even record breaking if we can get the -15c line in there....

Whilst the GFS ushers the cold away quickly its upgraded the cold enough to see the 510 thicknesses WELL into England with freezing right down to the surface-

 

Theta E- sub 5c

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013120106/gfs-6-120.png?6

 

 

This isn't Typical...... this is SIGNIFICANT COLD.

S

[Captain Shortwave]

Beyond the northerly it's really down to how the energy splits over the Greenland locale which will determine how the high proceeds to build. We need as much going south east as possible to deepen and sharpen the Atlantic trough and give a more northwards push on the high to get it over Scandinavia. The GFS this time is sending nearly all of it over the top and we will end up with a giant Euro high.

Actually the run ends up ok, which is actually a very good sign. I expect movement towards the Scandi block solution over future runs.

Edited December 1, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Cloud 10]

Hmmmm... did someone mention a scandi high?

 

 

 

edit..there's another one,just like buses!

 

Edited December 1, 2013 by Cloud 10

[Cal]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013120106/gfsnh-0-240.png?6

 

Battleground UK in the making here, low heights in the Med, HP to the far NE, game on.

Edited December 1, 2013 by Cal

[blitzen]

1953 ARTICLE:

 

Correction there Lorenzo! Copied from model thread this a.m.  courtesy of GU WEATHER.  However, should anything like this occur, I do have

plenty of info on this event which I shall post in any appropriate thread.

Edited December 1, 2013 by Blitzen

[Snowman.]

ITS GOING UNDER!!!

 

[Tim Bland]

06z GFS isn't far off an eagerly in the long term. A deep low in Eastern Europe helps to reinforce the block and a slack easterly flow keeps it cold in the SE. The PV just looks to powerfull to our NW. What bothers me the most in the long term is GFS ensembles which are All showing mild uppers until mid December. These are just as fickle as the op run tho and could change over the nxt few days. Looking good in the NW at the end of this week but those south and east of Manchester it will be cold but mainly dry is suspect

[Snowman.]

Sweeetttt.

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

The rollercoaster continues.

 

06Z GFS an excellent upgrade with ppn reaching Cumbria mid afternoon Thursday then sweeping south by evening - Pennines with some serious disruption if it comes off - then the wishbone effect takes over for Friday with Wales Avon and much of the SW getting battered. - not to mention N Scotland - all eyes on the strength of the HP for Saturday.

 

Welsh snow totals could be interesting.

 

From Midnight Friday

 

 

Constant to Midnight Saturday

 

 

Ian

Edited December 1, 2013 by Iceaxecrampon

[stodge]

Yep heights are building a little over Scandinavia.. Looks like a cool rather than cold drift, but little steps and all that I guess and certainly appears to be today's trend after the northerly.

 

Well, it's a "trend" that has been apparent for several days in the far reaches of the GFS output (which of course goes a week beyond anything else). As a fan of midwinter HP, I'm starting to get very interested in where this could be going.

 

Yes, the HP might finish either over the British Isles or over Germany (the latter wouldn't be bad either)  but on more than one occasion GFS tempts with a linkage to the Eurasian HP and said HP migrating to Finland and throwing a strong ridge west.

 

To be NIMBY-ist for a moment, the route to very cold in the SE starts with a flow from a frigid continent (ideally ESE'ly but SE will do fine in midwinter remembering the North Sea is still relatively warm in mid-December). After that we need some clear air and inversion will do the rest - perfectly possible to have ice days under such a synoptic scenario even without snow.

 

We might finish up on the west side of the "battle" with mild SW' lies or we might be in the battle itself but I see more than a hint that the HP block might be strong enough to keep much of the south and east on the cold side of the block.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013120106/gfs-0-240.png?6

 

This would be really good for cold but NOT snow in the SE - 2m temperatures would struggle above freezing at best.

[Gael_Force]

GFS 96 06 z is finally there...All the way around to the ECM - its only taken 5 days.....Watch a very quick shift in the next 18 hours of the gfs ensembles and watch much quicker the scandi heights suddenly appear....From this fiasco of the gfs if you look at ensemble watch the worst run has been the12z gfs which has been flat and wayyyyy to far east- which underpins the assessment of it having a strong eastward bias.I do and explain the rationale and what it all means- I guess people just ignore it.S

 

I don't think it is so much that, rather people don't believe it can happen; having spent most of their model watching lives watching downgrades and topplers, it is hard to move on to the more recent paradigm, where expectations can be increased.

I remarked the other day that recent weather patterns would indicate it be unlikely that such a deep trough would not leave a cut-off upper low behind and with LR modelling pointing to low heights in Iberia we could be more optimistic.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Sweeetttt.

 

 

We will end up with SW'lys from there won't we , we need the Scandi High moving West not the Atlantic moving East ... 

[Iceaxecrampon]

06z GFS isn't far off an eagerly in the long term. A deep low in Eastern Europe helps to reinforce the block and a slack easterly flow keeps it cold in the SE. The PV just looks to powerfull to our NW. What bothers me the most in the long term is GFS ensembles which are All showing mild uppers until mid December. These are just as fickle as the op run tho and could change over the nxt few days. Looking good in the NW at the end of this week but those south and east of Manchester it will be cold but mainly dry is suspect

 

But South and east of Manc is Pennine country towards Buxton - surely could fair well?

Edited December 1, 2013 by Iceaxecrampon

[SW Saltire]

Hello everyone, I've avidly followed this forum for almost exactly 3 years. If it hadn't been for the ECM's recent backtrack on the severity of the northerly that occurred a couple of weeks ago then the GFS backtrack would have been almost a formality. Thus, it must be noted that the GFS can be correct with its tendency to reduce blocking and increase the strength of the Atlantic and put the tilt of lows against any 'sliding' occasionally but in the main the ECM (along with the UKMO) is more often right than wrong. The UKMO seems to be a good check on the possible oversimplification of the ECM.

Edited December 1, 2013 by SW Saltire

[snowmadchrisuk]

Hello everyone, I've avidly followed this forum for almost exactly 3 years. If it hadn't been for the ECM's recent backtrack on the severity of the northerly that occurred a couple of years ago then the GFS backtrack would have been almost a formality. Thus, it must be noted that the GFS can be correct with its tendency to reduce blocking and increase the strength of the Atlantic and put the tilt of lows against any 'sliding' occasionally but in the main the ECM (along with the UKMO) is more often right than wrong. The UKMO seems to be a good check on the possible oversimplification of the ECM.

Have to agree the ECM can seem a little to smooth sometimes especially when your looking at the 850's . but I would still choose it over the GFS between 168 and 240 hours for general trend. 

[chris55]

Certainly a taste of winter on the way. And even though we get a topple of the high, things would still be very cold at the surface right through to Tuesday/Wednesday, when the uppers start to warm up from the west. So 5 days of what will certainly feel like winter proper look likely, with the initial very cold blast followed by some cold and frosty nights and very chilly days, only slowly becoming less cold as we go into the middle of next week (according to ECM). GFS 06z keeps the cold theme and things never really warm up at the surface and then we drag in a cold south easterly.

 

Overall some nice wintry prospects, and not a bad start to the season, even if the opportunity for snowfall is pretty short.

[Methuselah]

Hello everyone, I've avidly followed this forum for almost exactly 3 years. If it hadn't been for the ECM's recent backtrack on the severity of the northerly that occurred a couple of weeks ago then the GFS backtrack would have been almost a formality. Thus, it must be noted that the GFS can be correct with its tendency to reduce blocking and increase the strength of the Atlantic and put the tilt of lows against any 'sliding' occasionally but in the main the ECM (along with the UKMO) is more often right than wrong. The UKMO seems to be a good check on the possible oversimplification of the ECM.

Welcome to NW, SW Saltire...

[SMU]

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/138_35.gif

 

Even though this is the GFS - the area of shower distribution seems good & values could be typical....

 

S

[SW Saltire]

Have to agree the ECM can seem a little to smooth sometimes especially when your looking at the 850's . but I would still choose it over the GFS between 168 and 240 hours for general trend.Definately, I also meant weeks not years as to the northerly that was watered down significantly. The GFS seems to predict trends well I.e. Blocking at 300+ hours but when it trickles down it is subsequently dropped only for the ECM to start to run with it and this leads to a t96 turnaround from the GFS (actually it would be better if the GFS switched but it excruciatingly painfully makes minute concessions that cumulatively combine and backtrack towards te solution of the Euros

[TEITS]

Worth pointing out everyone that due to the time of year we will not require a Scandi HP to be perfectly placed and bring colder uppers to actually experience very cold temps. Any continental flow is likely to bring max temps around freezing and mins well below freezing. The only exceptions are those locations away from the continental influence. So for example it is possible that whilst Cornwall and Dublin are experiencing max temps of 11C, the Midlands/SE could see max temps of 0C!

 

Thanks for the comments everyone as I decided I would feel better by indulging in my favourite hobby.

[Cleeve Hill]

A proper Winter High showing its hand from the depth of Russia. Lovely jubbly

[Captain Shortwave]

I would say western areas adjacent to the Irish sea, any north facing coasts (Scotland/Northern Ireland), look good, perhaps North east East Anglia too, if the flow turns slightly more north then other north sea coasts will join in.

Of course we could easily get disturbances in the flow to bring showers or longer spells of snow inland too which will be picked up later this week.

Worth noting that the cold front moving south on Thursday has consistently been shown to have snow on its back edge. Might give a dusting for many if it did happen.

Either way I am looking forward to some lovely clear/crisp sunny weather down here, even if the wind is rather bracing 

[Chris.R]

I would say western areas adjacent to the Irish sea, any north facing coasts (Scotland/Northern Ireland), look good, perhaps North east East Anglia too, if the flow turns slightly more north then other north sea coasts will join in.

Of course we could easily get disturbances in the flow to bring showers or longer spells of snow inland too which will be picked up later this week.

Worth noting that the cold front moving south on Thursday has consistently been shown to have snow on its back edge. Might give a dusting for many if it did happen.

Either way I am looking forward to some lovely clear/crisp sunny weather down here, even if the wind is rather bracing 

My thoughts exactly, and as you say, any disturbances, which could make a big difference, won't even show up for a while yet.

[Frosty.]

AWESOME Gfs 06z op run through most of the high res...wednesday is prelude to the BLISS for cold & snow lovers, this gfs 6z is a major upgrade in terms of severity compared to recently and is now more in line with the euro models. Big Arctic plunge incoming for the second half of the week, major disruptive and drifting snow for exposed parts of the north & east with nithering Northerly gales, penetrating frosts and lots of ice, other parts of the uk should also see snow in places, then turning fine but continuing frosty through next weekend with severe frosts across the snow fields. The arctic express is coming to town. 

[swilliam]

Worth pointing out everyone that due to the time of year we will not require a Scandi HP to be perfectly placed and bring colder uppers to actually experience very cold temps. Any continental flow is likely to bring max temps around freezing and mins well below freezing. The only exceptions are those locations away from the continental influence. So for example it is possible that whilst Cornwall and Dublin are experiencing max temps of 11C, the Midlands/SE could see max temps of 0C!

 

Thanks for the comments everyone as I decided I would feel better by indulging in my favourite hobby.

Just to add to this these are the maxes from the 06Z in FI under the influence of the Scandi block

 

Pretty cold in Europe too