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Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Time for some model discussion again now folks, we've had our fun. Posted Image

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lamppost watcher Contributor

lamppost watcher

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Location: Cardiff
Posted (edited)

Thanks Nick, long time lurker on this forum but newbie here wrt weather charts...could you explain why there are so many conflicting charts on the current models? I know most are in FI but it seams like quite a close time frame at the mo and usually out to day 5 is pretty solid

Cheers,

Rory

Edited by RoryHennessy
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shotski Seasoned

shotski

Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
Posted

Nope, i dont see any likelihood of a greenland height rise. Thats been my position for a while now. If the canadian vortex drifts west then it becomes possible but i dont see that happening for some time yet.I also think its about time we dropped the 62/63 charts. Are they really relevant except in certain newspapers?

 

No nor do I, I wasn't suggesting a greenland high. Just anything can and will happen and you only need to look at

some old archive charts to see this. MLB is surely the form horse in to mid Dec as far as I can see, if we get sw zonal

I will eat my arm.

 

Shotski.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a strong Arctic blast for thursday & friday with snow showers and nw'ly-n'ly gales, the winds easing down by saturday as an atlantic ridge of high pressue cuts off the arctic supply but it brings a frosty weekend with snow showers dying out,  those lucky snow covered areas having severe frosts, then after a few fine and cold days it's towards the atlantic we look. There is plenty of time for the longevity to improve as the models are still struggling, especially the gfs where tonight's GEFS 12z mean is a turkey but I think we are in for a short sharp blast of winter and hopefully we won't have to wait too long for the next.

 

Sorry the charts are not in the correct sequence, computer glitch.

post-4783-0-44303900-1385847841_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-62231600-1385847856_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-36113500-1385847870_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-60025400-1385847885_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-88420300-1385847901_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-23226700-1385847918_thumb.gi

Edited by Frosty.
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ChartViewer Apprentice

ChartViewer

Posted
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
Posted

Has to be reported that the dutch ens are not clustered around a continental flow as the day 10 mean chart led me to assess. About 20% cold.

BA...Tell peeps what that means...that means a milder flow.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Thanks Nick, long time lurker on this forum but newbie here wrt weather charts...could you explain why there are so many conflicting charts on the current models? I know most are in FI but it seams like quite a close time frame at the mo and usually out to day 5 is pretty solid

Cheers,

Rory

 

Don't think of the timeframes involved, i.e. 5 days or whatever, more appropriately look at the bigger picture and see where the actual lows and high are to be situated within the forecast and how they might differ from run to run. Even then, its more complicated than simply that. FI is best indicated by following the subsequent ensembles charts where you can then determine where the scatter begins, i.e. an example is shown in this post from yesterday.Posted Image

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78508-model-output-discussion-18th-nov2013-12z-onwards/?p=2849088

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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suxer Enthusiast

suxer

Posted
  • Location: Yeovil
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Yeovil
Posted

That is exactly why I try to ask simple questions, S. IMO, why is that? is a perfectly valid question to ask...I do see a two-, maybe three-day cold snap - nothing in the models really goes against that assumption...? I might well be wrong, if that is the case, then so be it...Would you prefer that I asked the very same question in ten lines, as opposed one?

You rarely ask simple questions, more so sarcastic comments..

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Seems a bit defeatist mate?

 

That comment was LOADED and I mean LOADED with sarcasm, check the date. Posted Image

 

Naughty boy Bobbydog, but you're not the only one. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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shotski Seasoned

shotski

Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Popular Post
Posted

a bit of a northerly then thats it for winter it would seem....

 

Posted Image

 

 

 Bobbydog, that strong pv over Greenland and Azures high will surely scuper winter .

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BurwellWeatherWatch Enthusiast

BurwellWeatherWatch

Posted
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
Posted
Seems a bit defeatist mate?

Also thanks Gtltw...much appreciated![/quote

I think it was a windup /troll post. Best not to feed!

18z rolling and to my untrained eye looks pretty similar to 12 so far

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

The very latest data we have out of the USA is the 18hrs NAM the high resolution model for North America and SREF.

 

So T84hrs upto 06hrs Wednesday:

 

Posted ImageNAMT84.gif

 

 

The GFS 12hrs run to 06hrs Wednesday:

 

Posted ImageGFST90.gif

 

The SREF, Short Range Ensemble Forecast

 

This is the 15hrs T87 to the same time:

 

Posted ImageSREFT87.gif

 

I don't normally subject this thread to these but you can see by the data compiled later than the GFS 12hrs that they don't support its view upstream.

 

I'd be shocked if the GFS 18hrs continues with its 12hrs view of the pattern in the USA and Canada.

I think you might just have to be shocked Nick

Posted Image

I believe said shortwave has again appeared on the GFS op, though I might be wrong and the chart hasn't appeared on weatheronline to give it a real comparison.

Atlantic ridge looks more amplified on this run though

Edited by Captain shortwave
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legritter Accomplished

legritter

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
Posted

Its going to be a Long Hard Winter ....... MODEL WATCHING , today as been a rollercoaster but light at the end of the tunnel ,plenty more tunnels ahead lets hope we meet the siberian express along the way .it will be very interesting to see what GFS comes up with tonight ,but im waiting till 10.45 to find out ,if ecm comes off it will be a good start for us coldies ,cheers gang catch you all up later ,Posted Image

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

gfs slowly heading towards the euros. if you're on meteociel, click on 'active live compare' just above the chart on the left. then flick through the four gfs runs from today and you'll see how each run has slightly tilted the flow more northwards. i doubt this one will make it but its clear that wrt the eastern seaboard depression, the gfs is trending towards ukmo/ecm. 

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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

gfs slowly heading towards the euros. if you're on meteociel, click on 'active live compare' just above the chart on the left. then flick through the four gfs runs from today and you'll see how each run has slightly tilted the flow more northwards. i doubt this one will make it but its clear that wrt the eastern seaboard depression, the gfs is trending towards ukmo/ecm. 

 

 

Very clear to see that when comparing yesterday's 120 hrs and tonight's 96 hrs.

 

yesterday..  today..

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

I think you might just have to be shocked Nick

Posted Image

I believe said shortwave has again appeared on the GFS op, though I might be wrong and the chart hasn't appeared on weatheronline to give it a real comparison.

Atlantic ridge looks more amplified on this run though

Its moving in the right direction which is better than the 12hrs, remember the GFS has gone from the shortwave developing into a very deep low on last nights 18hrs run to now a very weak piece of energy which cuts cross.

 

The GFS is still too quick over the USA but if you keep its bias in mind then at worst the models might meet in the middle which will still leave a northerly.

 

In terms of continuity the GFS has gone from a low of 970mb to zip in 24hrs!

Edited by nick sussex
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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

upstream across the states, gfs 18z has poor continuity and is also unlike the ukmo/ecm. not sure what this run will tell us.

 

The t120 fax should provide some interest.

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