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Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

But have you studied the following

 

10-15 height anomaly - Heights flattened and sunk suggesting zonal

Jet more Zonal west to east

PV Strong

Heights over Europe building

 

I certainly don't want this but it is what is shown.

Yes but that is an average once again - when there is a broad spread, the mean tends to default to average. But if one of the colder ensemble runs were to be closer to the correct value, then the ensembles could change at a later date. Equally the same applies to a milder ensemble run. Always value the mean for what it is - an average.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Gtltw, i am a supporter of the gefs in general but only when they are consistent with the pattern they are showing. currently, i dont think thats the case.

And cv, i absolutely dont see zonality as the favourite for mid dec. i would say its 50/50 between a mlb and a scandi ridge. It could end up a sceuro block.

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Posted
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf

Yes but that is an average once again - when there is a broad spread, the mean tends to default to average. But if one of the colder ensemble runs were to be closer to the correct value, then the ensembles could change at a later date. Equally the same applies to a milder ensemble run. Always value the mean for what it is - an average.

I Don't really view ensembles that well tbh...I prefer ops

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

I Don't really view ensembles that well tbh...I prefer ops

They're much easier to view that's for certain haha! I think ensembles are very useful for looking at broad trends, but in the high res sections of the ops, you are right, they are more useful as they pick up details better. That is where our key issue is at the moment - the detail of the low that exits the Eastern Seaboard and its tilt!

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Posted
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf

Gtltw, i am a supporter of the gefs in general but only when they are consistent with the pattern they are showing. currently, i dont think thats the case.And cv, i absolutely dont see zonality as the favourite for mid dec. i would say its 50/50 between a mlb and a scandi ridge. It could end up a sceuro block.

Because of pressure rises on Scandi 500 charts BA?

 

Me with a pv raging and nothing showing ill go with zonal for Dec but its tough to call.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Gtltw, i am a supporter of the gefs in general but only when they are consistent with the pattern they are showing. currently, i dont think thats the case.And cv, i absolutely dont see zonality as the favourite for mid dec. i would say its 50/50 between a mlb and a scandi ridge. It could end up a sceuro block.

Something in this area Nick?

 

post-4523-0-88981900-1385845913_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Gtltw, i am a supporter of the gefs in general but only when they are consistent with the pattern they are showing. currently, i dont think thats the case.

And cv, i absolutely dont see zonality as the favourite for mid dec. i would say its 50/50 between a mlb and a scandi ridge. It could end up a sceuro block.

 

Surely my post shows these were consistent up until the 3rd December from 9 days out, if not further back. For me, todays run will surely be an outlier and a simple blip. It is no fluke that I saw the 3rd December as a change in weather type at such a range. More appropriately, my analysis of the GEFS 12z runs lead me to that conclusion. Whatever, it'd be better if we had the UKMO MOGREPS and the like to consult, that's for sure.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

But have you studied the following

 

10-15 height anomaly - Heights flattened and sunk suggesting zonal

Jet more Zonal west to east

PV Strong

Heights over Europe building

 

I certainly don't want this but it is what is shown.

 

Yes I think we are kidding ourselves if we don't see this as much the most likely option, the only saviour could be if the High is far enough North to give settled conditions over much of the country with the jet raging to the North. Everything points to those deep purples and a barreling jet from day 9 onwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The very latest data we have out of the USA is the 18hrs NAM the high resolution model for North America and SREF.

 

So T84hrs upto 06hrs Wednesday:

 

post-1206-0-48053200-1385845389_thumb.gi

 

 

The GFS 12hrs run to 06hrs Wednesday:

 

post-1206-0-36288500-1385845490_thumb.gi

 

The SREF, Short Range Ensemble Forecast

 

This is the 15hrs T87 to the same time:

 

post-1206-0-03076500-1385846108_thumb.gi

 

I don't normally subject this thread to these but you can see by the data compiled later than the GFS 12hrs that they don't support its view upstream.

 

I'd be shocked if the GFS 18hrs continues with its 12hrs view of the pattern in the USA and Canada.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

One last thing and I'm at risk of going off topic but it still relates to mine and BAs discussion, here are the views quoted in the netweather guides. I will only quote one section as otherwise I'll be in trouble with the powers that be.

 

"Many leading agencies now believe that ensemble forecasting is the way forward for anything beyond 5 days – and sometimes even shorter."

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Looking at the longer range output it does look very uninspiring for mid dec. but at least we can all get around for Xmas then hopefully jan feb march we may see something more hopeful

 

The clock is already well wound why try and wind it further ??

 

How can 'everything' point towards disappointment at T300 when the models cant even agree post T124 ? and then everything is written off out to T720 ??

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Something in this area Nick?

 

Posted Image12znaefsCumulative500mbHeightAnomalyNH360.gif

 

Intriguing, would that be a reasonable shout for a cold shot Mid-Dec in your view Chio. I must say I think the darn HP cell is the "elephant in the room" at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

Before that last ecm 12z suite, id have said yes but i'm wondering how far north we can get that blocking, especially with a cold pool likely to be available to advect west beneath it. So many posters seem so certain about the medium term and beyond. shame they couldnt give us the winning lotto numbers today aswell!

 

Hi BA

 

Something like this maybe in the picture ??

post-9329-0-60737200-1385846645_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Hi BA

 

Something like this maybe in the picture ??

 

Damn elephants Posted Image , good job it was 1962. Even then, HP cells aren't a disaster as history will tell you, they can move on and evolve into a thing of beauty later on.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Or this come on

 

Posted Image

 

Random images, speaking of him, where is he? Posted ImageRandom synoptics proving anything CAN and DOES happen. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf

Random images, speaking of him, where is he? Posted ImageRandom synoptics proving anything CAN and DOES happen. Posted Image

Agreed so can most coldies take your comment on board lol

Edited by ChartViewer
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

I have tried to scan through last few hours of comments but can't work out where we stand? Has there been an upgrade or some sort of agreement between any models?

Regards

Rory

 

What's in front of our eyes i.e. within the reliable is unaltered, FI begins approximately next Thursday where anything from then on is currently possible. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Hi BASomething like this maybe in the picture ??

Nope, i dont see any likelihood of a greenland height rise. Thats been my position for a while now. If the canadian vortex drifts west then it becomes possible but i dont see that happening for some time yet.I also think its about time we dropped the 62/63 charts. Are they really relevant except in certain newspapers? Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I have tried to scan through last few hours of comments but can't work out where we stand? Has there been an upgrade or some sort of agreement between any models?RegardsRory

Unfortunately no agreement, as for upgrades or downgrades hard to say as we don't even know which is the correct view of things, at the moment I'd bin the GFS 12hrs run , at worst some ECM/UKMO hybrid  might be a sensible way of looking at things but still a few more runs needed. This is turning into the Da Vinci Code!

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Agreed so can most coldies take your comment on board lol

 

If they care to listen to us they can. There is currently model suite confliction meaning we're all bloody confused as to where we go I'd say. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf

Unfortunately no agreement, as for upgrades or downgrades hard to say as we don't even know which is the correct view of things, at the moment I'd bin the GFS 12hrs run , at worst some ECM/UKMO hybrid  might be a sensible way of looking at things but still a few more runs needed. This is turning into the Da Vinci Code!

Nick the Da Vinci code doesn't come close to unravelling the GFS/ECM/UKM/CMA saga Posted Image

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